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Read Article NBA first basket picks and predictions for Friday, January 23, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Experience Officer
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of NBA slate on 1/23.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Friday, January 23, 2026—are live with the Thunder's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections make use of detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jaylen Brown lead Friday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also showcase tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (January 23, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 19.0% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Bucks | 18.7% |
| Jaylen Brown | Celtics | 16.9% |
| Pascal Siakam | Pacers | 15.5% |
| Shaedon Sharpe | Trail Blazers | 15.4% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 14.4% |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 14.3% |
| Cedric Coward | Grizzlies | 13.7% |
| Zion Williamson | Pelicans | 13.7% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 13.5% |
| Devin Booker | Suns | 13.5% |
| Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 13.0% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 13.0% |
| Chet Holmgren | Thunder | 12.4% |
| Jay Huff | Pacers | 12.1% |
NBA first basket picks today (January 23, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 4.8% | +600 | 19.0% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 2.4% | +800 | 13.5% |
| Corey Kispert | Hawks | 2.4% | +1300 | 9.5% |
| Russell Westbrook | Kings | 2.3% | +1000 | 11.4% |
| Jalen Johnson | Hawks | 1.8% | +900 | 11.8% |
| DeMar DeRozan | Kings | 1.5% | +950 | 11.0% |
| Pascal Siakam | Pacers | 1.2% | +600 | 15.5% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Bucks | 1.2% | +470 | 18.7% |
| Shaedon Sharpe | Trail Blazers | 1.1% | +600 | 15.4% |
| Amen Thompson | Rockets | 0.8% | +950 | 10.3% |
| Tobias Harris | Pistons | 0.6% | +950 | 10.2% |
| Jay Huff | Pacers | 0.3% | +750 | 12.1% |
| Jaylon Tyson | Cavaliers | 0.3% | +900 | 10.3% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 1/23.
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Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Friday, January 23, 2026, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jaylen Brown lead our first basket projections, with Gilgeous-Alexander shaping as the strongest value play at +600. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Damien Souness is Chief Experience Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, helping lead sports media brands such as Dimers. He specializes in creating trustworthy and data-driven content for sports fans, with experience working for globally recognized sports and media organizations.
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