How to Bet the 2022 MLB Home Run Derby

Last updated: Dec 21, 2023, 11:02AM | Published: Jul 15, 2022, 6:44PM

The MLB Home Run Derby takes the stage on Monday night in at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles with two-time reigning champion Pete Alonso of the New York Mets in the field again, looking to make it three straight.

Dimers.com contributor Bradley Livergood takes a look at the contenders and their odds.

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2022 MLB Home Run Derby Format

It's a single-elimination bracket system with three rounds total. In each bracket, the higher seed hits second. Seeds are decided by the home run leaders as of July 13 in the regular season.

The opening round matchups will be:

No. 1 Schwarber (28) vs. No. 8 Pujols (6)
No. 2 Alonso (23) vs. No. 7 Acuña (8)
No. 3 Seager (21) vs. No. 6 Rodríguez (15)
No. 4 Soto (19) vs. No. 5 Ramírez (17)

Batters will have three minutes per round in the first and second rounds and two minutes in the final round. The clock starts with the release of the first pitch, and the round ends when the timer strikes zero. A homer will count so long as the pitch was released prior to the timer hitting zero. A batter is entitled to one 45-second timeout in each round.

30 seconds of extra time will be granted to each batter at the conclusion of each regulation period. A hitter can earn an additional 30 seconds of bonus time -- giving him 60 seconds total -- if he hits at least one home run that equals or exceeds 440 feet in the regulation period.

We move through the rounds until we have just one batter left, with the winner taking home $1 million. These guys are definitely playing to win.

2022 MLB Home Run Derby Odds and Picks

Defending Champion: Pete Alonso (+185)

Alonso beat Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in an epic battle back in 2019 for his first title hitting a grand total of 57 jacks. He ran that back in 2021 by hitting 74 bangers in for his second title at Coors Field. It will be tough to beat Alonso for what could be his third consecutive title, as his 23 home runs on the year are similar pace from last year. He has the experience to pace himself, and the confidence to win a 3rd.

Dark Horse #1: Kyle Schwarber (+300)

Kyle Schwarber of the Philadelphia Phillies has the experience and the power to dethrone Pete Alonso. With 5 more home runs on the year than Alonso, he also made a push to the final hitting 55 Home Runs in the 2018 Home Run Derby, losing to now teammate Bryce Harper. Schwarber is a far better player than he was with the Cubs in 2018, and in much better shape, having the longest homer in 2022 at 468 feet. I expect Schwarber to make a deep run with a solid chance to win it all.

Kyle Schwarber on his recent hot streak: pic.twitter.com/Keg05uYQTI
— FAX Sports: MLB  (@MLBONFAX) July 7, 2022

Dark Horse #2: Juan Soto (+650)

Returning for a second straight year, Juan Soto comes with revenge on his mind. After losing to Alonso by one in 2021, I expect Soto to pace himself this time around and make a deep run. As one the best overall hitters in the game — and also the author of the longest home run of 520 feet in last year's Derby — I'll take the experience and motivation of that loss as enough to make a deep run and possibly dethrone Alonso.

Fade #1: Albert Pujols (+2300)

What seems to be an entry for the fans, I don't expect Pujols to make any noise in this year's Home Run Derby. With only 5 Home Runs on the year, and at 42 years old, he certainly could surprise and win the opening round, but I expect him to fade quickly. He's the oldest player to compete since a 39-year-old Barry Bonds back in 2004. If it was 2010 I'd give Pujols a chance, but at 42 he is an auto fade.

Live look at Albert Pujols getting ready for the Home Run Derby pic.twitter.com/W4cNzyCsWF
— Jo Adell 🤠 (@JoShowAdell) July 12, 2022

Fade #2: Julio Rodriguez (+850)

Rookie Julio Rodriguez makes his first appearance in the Home Run Derby, at nearly half the age of Albert Pujols. While he has historic rookie records, he is still only 21 and has yet to prove himself on what will be the biggest stage of his career to date. He can definitely hit for power, with 15 home runs on the year already, I don't consider him in the same class of hitter just yet as Alonso or Soto, although his bat speed is the source of much debate in the Dimers office, and might just be an overlooked factor.

Fade #3: Ronald Acuna Jr. (+650)

Acuna has been one MLB's best lead-off hitters in the game. A deep dive into the stats shows he can certainly hit the long ball. Since he came back from ACL surgery last year his power has yet to return. So far in 2022, he has hit just eight homers in 53 games. I don't consider Acuna a power hitter, and up against the likes of Soto, Schwarber, and Alonso, I'll be making another fade here.

Fade #4: Jose Ramirez (+1500)

After starting out the season hot, Ramirez's home run rate has decreased dramatically in recent weeks. He has turned into a solid switch hitter, but that doesn't translate to more home run power. Additionally, he gets a tough matchup with Juan Soto in the first round, and while they have similar stats on the year, even if he surprises in the 1st round I don't see him making a deep run. When in doubt, fade all Cleveland sports.

Jose Ramirez will participate in the 2022 HR Derby, per @JeffPassan pic.twitter.com/t5LluSvMRM
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) July 13, 2022

Fade #5 - Corey Seager (+950)

The last addition to the Derby participants, the Texas Rangers’ Corey Seager will be coming back to Los Angeles where he played the last five seasons with the Dodgers. A dive into his stats shows he has the lowest OPS of his career, in a hitters ballpark in Arlington. Sure to be a fan favorite as a former Dodger, I'll be fading Seager who gets the up-and-comer Julio Rodriquez who has more power and is certainly a future star in the first round.

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Brad Livergood

Once a former academy soccer prospect with the Chicago Fire, Brad Livergood has turned that knowledge of the game into a dream turning profits for over 10 years professionally betting sports and DFS, encompassing all major sports. With investments in the restaurant industry in the Chicago area, you'll find Brad most likely at the end of one of his bars watching the game, always looking for the next lock of the day, or at a poker table in Las Vegas, with his eyes on a WSOP Bracelet.