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Rockets vs. Pelicans prediction: Houston to win, Kevin Durant projected for big game in Thursday's NBA matchup [12/18/2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Houston Rockets vs New Orleans Pelicans predictions for NBA Thursday.
The New Orleans Pelicans and Houston Rockets are scheduled to meet in NBA action at Smoothie King Center on Thursday, with tipoff at 8:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulations and today’s injury news, Dimers' advanced NBA model predicts the Rockets as the most likely winner of the Rockets vs. Pelicans game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Pelicans lineup will feature stars like Trey Murphy, Zion Williamson and Jordan Poole, while the Rockets will look to Kevin Durant, Alperen Sengun and Amen Thompson.
This article offers further insights into Thursday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Rockets vs. Pelicans prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's NBA matchup between the Rockets and Pelicans 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Rockets a 76% chance of defeating the Pelicans. Our predicted final score has the Rockets winning 121-113.
According to our model, the Pelicans (+9.5) have a 56% chance of covering the spread, while the 236.5-point over/under has a 52% chance of staying under.
Rockets vs. Pelicans odds
We have researched the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Rockets | Pelicans |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -9.5 (-110) | +9.5 (-106) |
| Moneyline | -420 | +330 |
| Total | o236.5 (-110) | u236.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Rockets vs. Pelicans picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Pelicans +9.5 | -106 |
| Moneyline | Pelicans | +330 |
| Total | Under 236.5 | -110 |
According to our best NBA bets for Thursday, the top play to make on this game is Pelicans +9.5 at the spread.
Rockets vs. Pelicans player props
NBA player props are an exciting way to wager on Thursday's Rockets vs. Pelicans matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Smoothie King Center.
Kevin Durant is expected to lead the Rockets with 27 points, 5 rebounds and 4 assists, while Trey Murphy is projected to have 21 points, 5 rebounds and 4 assists for the Pelicans.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Rockets prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Rockets are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Durant | 27 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 46 |
| Alperen Sengun | 22 | 10 | 8 | 1 | 53 |
| Amen Thompson | 19 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 43 |
| Jabari Smith | 16 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 33 |
| Reed Sheppard | 13 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 27 |
Pelicans prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Pelicans:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Murphy | 21 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 40 |
| Zion Williamson | 20 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 38 |
| Jordan Poole | 16 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 28 |
| Jeremiah Fears | 14 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 26 |
| Derik Queen | 12 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 31 |
Rockets vs. Pelicans game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's game between the Pelicans and Rockets at Smoothie King Center is scheduled to start at 8:00 PM ET.
- Who: Houston Rockets vs. New Orleans Pelicans
- Date: Thursday, December 18, 2025
- Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
- Venue: Smoothie King Center
Conclusion
We predict the Rockets, with a 76% win probability, will likely beat the Pelicans on Thursday, with Alperen Sengun projected for a game-high 53 fantasy points.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Rockets vs. Pelicans insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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