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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Thursday, December 18, 2025
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of NBA slate on 12/18.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Thursday, December 18, 2025—are live with the Warriors' Stephen Curry projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections are based on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Curry, Luka Doncic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead Thursday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also feature tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (December 18, 2025)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry | Warriors | 17.9% |
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | 16.1% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 15.7% |
| Pascal Siakam | Pacers | 15.6% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 15.4% |
| CJ McCollum | Wizards | 15.1% |
| Jalen Brunson | Knicks | 14.8% |
| Alex Sarr | Wizards | 14.8% |
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 14.6% |
| Norman Powell | Heat | 14.4% |
| Shaedon Sharpe | Trail Blazers | 14.0% |
| Bobby Portis | Bucks | 14.0% |
| Desmond Bane | Magic | 14.0% |
| Anthony Davis | Mavericks | 13.8% |
| Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 13.8% |
NBA first basket picks today (December 18, 2025)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Portis | Bucks | 4.9% | +1000 | 14.0% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 4.3% | +800 | 15.4% |
| Maxime Raynaud | Kings | 3.5% | +1100 | 11.9% |
| Stephen Curry | Warriors | 2.5% | +550 | 17.9% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 12/18.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Thursday, December 18, 2025, Stephen Curry, Luka Doncic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead our first basket projections, while Bobby Portis shapes as the strongest value play at +1000. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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