Home Run Parlay: Best HR props today at +2526 odds, Wednesday, April 22

1. Fernando Tatis Jr. to hit a home run (+367)

Game: Padres vs. Rockies

Time: 8:40 PM ET

When it comes to value and probability, there is no better home run bet on the board than Fernando Tatis Jr, who gets our highest probability of the day at 24.2% vs. Tomoyuki Sugano in Coors Field.

He's been one of the unluckiest hitters in MLB so far this season, one of just four qualified hitters who hit at least 25 home runs last year who has yet to go yard in 2026.

Tatis is hitting the ball well with Barrel %, HardHit % and Launch Angle metrics all in the 87th percentile or better, he's just hitting more line drives. At least one of his hardhit balls would have been gone in Coors this year, and over the course of his career, only three parks would have allowed more home runs off his batted balls.

Sugano has the lowest Barrel rate in MLB out of qualified pitchers, with 5 HR allowed through 4 starts so far, with Tatis favoring power vs. RHP in his career, historically crushing two of Sugano's top three pitches vs. righthanders, the 4-seamer and sinker.

Sugano is projected to give up 4.7 runs, the most on the slate, setting up Tatis for his first yard bomb of the year, with a strong Dimers edge against fair odds of +315.

Our top home run edge from the Dimers App.

2. Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run (+460)

Game: Phillies vs. Cubs

Time: 7:40PM ET

Four our second home run bet, we're looking at Kyle Schwarber vs. his former team back in Wrigley Field, with a 17.1% home run probability.

Schwarber went yard last night in his old park, with 4 HR over the past week and 8 on the year so far.

He's mashing the ball as usual, with Hard Hit, Barrel and xSLG numbers among the 90th percentile in MLB or better. 

Schwarber will face Matthew Boyd who's being activated off the IL for tonight's start, with a HR allowed through his first two starts, and absolute bottom of the barrel metrics for hard-hit baseballs, and after several injury-plagued seasons, he's coming off his worst year for home runs since 2019.

Boyd primarily throws 4-seam/slider vs. lefties, two pitches Schwarber has hit well in his career.

There's some light wind blowing in at Wrigley, which is why we're seeing a lower probability on Schwarber than usual, but we're not fair off his fair odds of +480.

MLB home run parlay at +2526 odds

For a bigger payout at a higher risk, you can bet these home run props as a parlay at total odds of +2526 on DraftKings Sportsbook, returning $262.64 off a $10 bet, where you can utilize a profit boost for even better odds.

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