Jun 6, 2026
Mets vs. Padres prediction: Mets favored to win Saturday's MLB matchup [6/6/2026]
Read Article Home run predictions for Wednesday include Fernando Tatis, Cal Raleigh [4/22/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get home run predictions today driven by expert analysis of Wednesday's MLB slate.
Our MLB home run predictions for Wednesday, April 22, 2026, feature Fernando Tatis as the top projected hitter, based on Dimers Pro's latest simulation data.
Wednesday's HR projections pull from our proprietary home run predictions, which highlight the top home run picks today.
Home run predictions for April 22, 2026
See which hitters join Tatis on today’s list — plus a long-shot pick the model rates as value at +860.
| Player (Team) | HR Projection |
|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis (Padres) | 24.4% |
| Manny Machado (Padres) | 22.0% |
| Juan Soto (Mets) | 21.4% |
| Cal Raleigh (Mariners) | 20.6% |
| Jackson Merrill (Padres) | 20.6% |
| Ramon Laureano (Padres) | 20.3% |
| Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) | 20.0% |
| Francisco Alvarez (Mets) | 19.4% |
| Aaron Judge (Yankees) | 18.4% |
| Jo Adell (Angels) | 18.4% |
Our analysis shows Tatis leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 24.4% chance to go yard, followed by Manny Machado (22.0%) and Juan Soto (21.4%).
Cal Raleigh and Jackson Merrill are among several other sluggers to crack the top 10.
Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR probability for Wednesday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep. features in our home run predictions on Wednesday, April 22, 2026.
Wednesday's home run picks [4/22/2026]
Powered by 10,000 simulations and data-driven variables like weather and pitcher form, Dimers Pro spotlights today’s top home run prop.
Luis Campusano (Padres) to hit a home run
- Probability: 17.3%
- Odds: +860
- Edge: 6.9%
- Game: Padres vs. Rockies (8:40 PM EDT)
- Pitching matchup: Tomoyuki Sugano
Though outside today’s top 10 home run projections, San Diego slugger Luis Campusano rates as a value play at +860 with DraftKings Sportsbook, showing a 6.9% edge.
Against Rockies starter Tomoyuki Sugano, the data supports Campusano as one of Wednesday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.
Pro users have access to a total of eight home run betting edges today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.
Conclusion
For April 22, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado and Juan Soto projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Luis Campusano who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 6.9% edge at +860 odds.
For guidance on safer wagering habits, explore our Responsible Gambling resources.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
Advertiser disclosure
