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Packers vs. Vikings prediction: Why Minnesota is favored to win in NFL Week 18 [2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings predictions for NFL Sunday.
NFL Week 18 action continues on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET as the Green Bay Packers face off with the favored Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced NFL model predicts the Vikings as the most likely winner of the Packers vs. Vikings game.
This article offers a closer look at this week's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Packers vs. Vikings prediction: Who will win and cover?
Since our Packers-Vikings predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL game between the Packers and Vikings 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Vikings an 89% chance of defeating the Packers in Week 18 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Vikings winning 23-13.
According to our model, the Packers (+13.5) have a 55% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 37 points has a 51% chance of staying under.
To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 18 straight up picks.
Packers vs. Vikings odds
We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Packers | Vikings |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +13.5 (-110) | -13.5 (-105) |
| Moneyline | +525 | -650 |
| Total | o37 (-110) | u37 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Packers vs. Vikings picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Packers +13.5 | -110 |
| Moneyline | Vikings | -650 |
| Total | Under 37 | -110 |
According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Packers +13.5 at the spread.
Packers vs. Vikings TD scorers
Who will score a touchdown in Packers vs. Vikings?
According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for Week 18, Jordan Mason is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Packers vs. Vikings.
Our projections give Mason a 49.7% chance of getting in for six at U.S. Bank Stadium, while the running back is a 15.5% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions
Green Bay Packers
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Emanuel Wilson (RB) | 32.3% |
| Chris Brooks (RB) | 21.4% |
| Christian Watson (WR) | 16.8% |
| Matthew Golden (WR) | 16.5% |
| Jayden Reed (WR) | 15.7% |
Minnesota Vikings
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Jordan Mason (RB) | 49.7% |
| Justin Jefferson (WR) | 35.3% |
| Jordan Addison (WR) | 28.2% |
| J.J. McCarthy (QB) | 23.1% |
| Josh Oliver (TE) | 21.2% |
First touchdown scorer predictions
Green Bay Packers
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Emanuel Wilson (RB) | 6.8% |
| Chris Brooks (RB) | 4.2% |
| Christian Watson (WR) | 3.2% |
| Matthew Golden (WR) | 3.2% |
| Jayden Reed (WR) | 3.0% |
Minnesota Vikings
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Jordan Mason (RB) | 15.5% |
| Justin Jefferson (WR) | 9.8% |
| Jordan Addison (WR) | 7.5% |
| J.J. McCarthy (QB) | 5.9% |
| Josh Oliver (TE) | 5.4% |
Packers vs Vikings player props
Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Packers and Vikings. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 18 games.
Quarterbacks
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Packers' Clayton Tune is projected to have a quiet game with 147 passing yards, while the Vikings' J.J. McCarthy is expected to throw for 195 yards.
| Player | Proj. Pass Yards |
|---|---|
| Clayton Tune (GB) | 147 |
| J.J. McCarthy (MIN) | 195 |
Packers rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Emanuel Wilson | 51 |
| Chris Brooks | 42 |
| Clayton Tune | 13 |
Vikings rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Jordan Mason | 71 |
| Ty Chandler | 20 |
| J.J. McCarthy | 15 |
Packers receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Matthew Golden | 35 |
| Bo Melton | 32 |
| Jayden Reed | 18 |
| Josh Whyle | 17 |
| Christian Watson | 15 |
Vikings receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 74 |
| Jordan Addison | 41 |
| Josh Oliver | 23 |
| Jalen Nailor | 23 |
| Jordan Mason | 11 |
Packers vs. Vikings game-day updates and essential details
The NFL Week 18 game between the Vikings and Packers at U.S. Bank Stadium is scheduled to commence at 1:00 PM ET.
- Who: Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings
- Date: Sunday, January 4, 2026
- Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
- Venue: U.S. Bank Stadium
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Conclusion
We predict the Vikings, with an 89% win probability, will likely beat the Packers in Week 18 of the NFL season.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Packers vs. Vikings insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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