Friday parlay picks: NBA and NHL Round Robin with the Dimers data

With a fairly small but entertaining slate of NBA and NHL games on Friday, December 12, we at Dimers are putting the data to work with a multi-sport round robin parlay bet across tonight's games.

Tonight, we've identified five player props for this parlay, spanning across Friday's NBA and NHL games, each offering distinct, data-backed reasoning against the market odds.

Our model's analysis reveals some strong NHL goalscorer value tonight, along with a large pool of NBA first basket options where the sportsbooks have profoundly underestimated these guys' early-game scoring potential.

To maximize reward while minimizing the risk of a full-ticket loss, we suggest playing the x2, x3, and x4 combinations of this multi-sport Round Robin Parlay. This structure acts as "parlay insurance," spreading your investment across smaller, interlocking wagers to guarantee a payout if only a couple of these five high-value legs hit.

Stake sizing across the suggested combinations is entirely dependent on your risk tolerance.

Friday Parlay analysis: Five high-value prop bets

As mentioned, this parlay combines NHL and NBA prop bets, featuring a pair of high-value NHL goal scorers with three high-probability NBA first basket props.

We're looking at the Blackhawks-Blues and Kraken-Mammoth in the NHL and the Cavaliers-Wizards, Grizzlies-Jazz, and Timberwolves-Warriors games in the NBA.

NBA first basket parlay bets:

Donovan Mitchell to score the first basket (+500)

The first (and earliest) leg of this parlay is on Cavaliers superstar Donovan Mitchell to score the first basket vs. the Washington Wizards on Friday night.

Mitchell's 14.9% probability to score first is fifth-highest by the Dimers model for the whole night, and second-highest in this game, just 0.5% behind the Wizards' CJ McCollum.

The difference is that the Cavs win the opening tip at a 64% rate this season compared to 50% for Washington, and Mitchell's 13.0% first shot percentage and three first baskets outweighs McCollum's 9.1% and one first basket.

Mtichell's fair odds of +570 are just off his market price of +500, making him an appealing play as the favorite in this game.

Jock Landale to score the first basket (+1100)

Our next bet is the longest odds play of them all, but also our No. 1 edge on a first basket play tonight.

Grizzlies C Jock Landale looks to find himself back in the starting lineup with Zach Edey sidelined for several weeks.

Landale started 13 games earlier this season, picking up one first basket alongside a Memphis starting 5 that wins the tip 62.5% of the time.

Landale's odds are long, but his 13.1% probability from the Dimers model says he shouldn't be any longer than +660 for a huge value

Anthony Edwards to score the first basket (+650)

Editor's note: Edwards has been ruled out for tonight - we would recommend Julius Randle as a substitute with our second-highest probability for Minnesota at 13.4%

For our final first basket prop, we turn to the latest game of the night in Timberwolves-Warriors, with Anthony Edwards our target to score first for the third time this season.

He's listed as questionable in this game, but has had three days of rest since the Wolves' last game on Monday.

There's a lot in favor for Edwards tonight, most of all with the Wolves star being tied for the highest overall probability from the Dimes model at 15.8%.

Additionally, the Timberwolves have won the opening tip at an even 50% rate this season, but 71.4% over their past seven games, while they face the Warriors, who do so at just 32%, the lowest of all teams playing tonight.

Edwards takes the first shot of the game at a 15.0% probability, second only to Julius Randle on the Timberwolves, and no one on the Warriors clears 9.0%.

The Dimers model says Edwards should be no longer than +530.

NHL goalscorer parlay bets:

Dylan Holloway (Blues) to score an anytime goal (+260)

We switch to the NHL where we task one of the Blues' leading goalscorers to take the team's solo lead with his ninth goal of the season, getting a 6.2% edge with a 33.9% probability from our model.

Dylan Holloway is off to a solid start this season, if a little behind his career-best pace of 26 goals in 77 games last year, but his 8 on the season is tied for the most in St. Louis.

He's found the back of the net just once in December, but is seeing consistent shooting volume with 3+ SOG in four of six games this month and he is the highest probability in this game behind only Connor Bedard.

The Blues will face Spencer Knight in net, who's been up and down lately, coming off his best outing of the season in a shutout, but his worst in the game before that, his second time allowing 6 goals on 32 shots this year and he's given up 3+ goals in six of his last ten starts.

Lawson Crouse (Mammoth) to score an anytime goal (+420)

Finally, we're looking at one more goalscorer with an edge and that's the Mammoth's Lawson Crouse with a 24.5% probability, yet odds of +420, giving us an edge of 5.2%.

Crouse leads leftwingers on the Mammoth with 7 goals this season, three of them coming this month.

He doesn't shoot for volume, but he's been consistent, tallying 2 SOG in five of six games in December, corresponding with his increased ice time, up to 17:22 per game compared to 15:13 in November and 14:35 in October, giving him a bit more opportunity each game. Unsurprisingly, he's now on pace for his best month yet in terms of scoring.

Projected but unconfirmed starting goalie Joey Daccord has allowed 3+ goals in four of his last five starts and 4+ in three of them.

Dimers' parlay picks tonight.

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