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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Friday, December 12, 2025
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 12/12.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Friday, December 12, 2025—are live with the Warriors' Stephen Curry projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections are based on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Curry, Anthony Edwards and Pascal Siakam lead Friday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (December 12, 2025)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry | Warriors | 15.8% |
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 15.8% |
| Pascal Siakam | Pacers | 15.5% |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 14.9% |
| Tyrese Maxey | 76ers | 14.4% |
| CJ McCollum | Wizards | 14.3% |
| Cade Cunningham | Pistons | 13.6% |
| Jock Landale | Grizzlies | 13.1% |
| Lauri Markkanen | Jazz | 12.7% |
| Anthony Davis | Mavericks | 12.6% |
| Joel Embiid | 76ers | 12.2% |
| Brandon Miller | Hornets | 12.1% |
| Miles Bridges | Hornets | 12.0% |
| Keyonte George | Jazz | 12.0% |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | Hawks | 12.0% |
NBA first basket picks today (December 12, 2025)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jock Landale | Grizzlies | 4.8% | +1100 | 13.1% |
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 2.4% | +650 | 15.8% |
| Tre Johnson | Wizards | 1.8% | +1200 | 9.5% |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | Hawks | 0.9% | +800 | 12.0% |
| Onyeka Okongwu | Hawks | 0.7% | +900 | 10.7% |
| Stephen Curry | Warriors | 0.5% | +550 | 15.9% |
| Tobias Harris | Pistons | 0.1% | +900 | 10.1% |
| CJ McCollum | Wizards | 0.0% | +600 | 14.3% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 12/12.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Friday, December 12, 2025, Stephen Curry, Anthony Edwards and Pascal Siakam lead our first basket projections, while Jock Landale shapes as the strongest value play at +1100. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For guidance on safer wagering habits, explore our Responsible Gambling resources.
Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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