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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Friday, December 12, 2025
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of NBA slate on 12/12.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Friday, December 12, 2025—are live with the Warriors' Stephen Curry projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections draw on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Curry, Pascal Siakam and CJ McCollum lead Friday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also showcase tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (December 12, 2025)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry | Warriors | 15.8% |
| Pascal Siakam | Pacers | 15.5% |
| CJ McCollum | Wizards | 15.4% |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 14.9% |
| Joel Embiid | 76ers | 14.0% |
| Cade Cunningham | Pistons | 13.6% |
| Julius Randle | Timberwolves | 13.4% |
| Jock Landale | Grizzlies | 13.1% |
| Lauri Markkanen | Jazz | 12.7% |
| Anthony Davis | Mavericks | 12.6% |
| Brandon Miller | Hornets | 12.1% |
| Miles Bridges | Hornets | 12.0% |
| Keyonte George | Jazz | 12.0% |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | Hawks | 12.0% |
| Nikola Vucevic | Bulls | 11.8% |
NBA first basket picks today (December 12, 2025)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jock Landale | Grizzlies | 4.8% | +1100 | 13.1% |
| CJ McCollum | Wizards | 1.1% | +600 | 15.4% |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | Hawks | 0.9% | +800 | 12.0% |
| Stephen Curry | Warriors | 0.5% | +550 | 15.9% |
| Onyeka Okongwu | Hawks | 0.1% | +850 | 10.7% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 0.0% | +750 | 11.8% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 12/12.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Friday, December 12, 2025, Stephen Curry, Pascal Siakam and CJ McCollum lead our first basket projections, while Jock Landale shapes as the strongest value play at +1100. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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