Free Soccer Picks and Predictions – English Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1, Championship, Serie A BetsAug 19, 2021 at 2:06AM
Sonofabitch, what a weekend that was.
The winning, the Twitter fame, the consuming enough alcohol to sterilize an entire hospital (well, that last part may only be relevant to me, but who cares). Since I started writing for Dimers nine months ago, I’ve had very few “breakthrough moments” where I knew that my work was actually making headway. In fact, I probably wouldn’t have survived if it weren’t for the fact that I enjoy writing and that I’m pretty content just laughing at my own jokes (even if nobody else is laughing). But god damn does it feel good to know there’s light on the other side.
To recap, I hit it big this weekend with a 5.77 Unit profit betting slip that picked winners in 6 different leagues and then blew the hell up to the tune of 250+ new followers. That puts even more pressure on me, especially because I despise giving out losers (unfortunately, that’s the reality of gambling, even if I wish I hit all my bets like some of those “experts” on Twitter), but I’m ready for it. To those of you who are new here, welcome and strap yourself in; things work a bit differently around these parts, mostly because I am a clusterfuck of a writer/human.
These articles aren’t just dry statistics that make your eyes bleed like you’re back in high school algebra, it’s gambling analysis with a lot of humor mixed in. Now, to be clear, I’m also a serious handicapper who knows his stuff, but sports and gambling are meant to be fun and I lean hard into that side of things with quirky jokes and completely unnecessary tangents. If that sounds good to you, well, you’ve come to the right place. Entertainment and making money all tied up in one nice package for $0.00.
So why hold off with more of my rambling. You all are here for the picks (and hopefully for the enjoyable writing, but beggars can’t be choosers), and who am I to stand in the way of my adoring masses and what they’ve come for. Just remember to share this around with your friends who are too good for twitter or who may not have been exposed to anything like this. I want to be the most famous cartoon prospector/handicapper combo in the world, and I won’t get there without a little help (oh, I’m the only one that exists? Looks like I need to aim higher...). Without further ado, the picks!
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Free Soccer Picks
🏴 Best Premier League Picks
Crystal Palace vs. Brentford: Sat Aug 21, 10am (EST)
Palace have not changed one bit since last season. They’re an absolute mystery box, capable of performing like a solid mid table-team one day while looking like a lost puppy the next. I follow “expected goals” when I research soccer because it’s usually a decent proxy for the quality of play each team produced, and Palace put up a whopping 0.35 against Chelsea on Saturday. That’s as impressive as it is appalling, since I assume you could throw a couple long range shots on net to qualify for more than that (it’s a made up stat, so I’ll just make up my own rules).
As for Brentford, well, the Bees impressed everyone by outclassing an Arsenal side that looked like they were the team with 0 Premier League experience in the tie. I doubt Brentford will face such inept competition most weeks, but 3 points in your first ever EPL match is a big deal.
So what do I like about this game? Well, I think the over is right for the money. Brentford showed that they can still produce some of the attacking quality they displayed last year in the Championship (where they led the league in goals scored), but they also showed some defensive frailty and probably deserved to concede at least 1. On the other side of the ring, I think Palace do more this week (it would literally be impossible not to, but still) and grab a goal or two themselves because they do have attacking talent that should fare better than they did against a tough Chelsea back line. Neither team is great defensively, and if Palace bothers to give a fuck about winning we’ll see at least 3 goals. At +138, the money is right for the price too.
💰 Pick: Over 2.5 goals (+138, 1 unit)
Leeds vs. Everton: Sat Aug 21, 10am (EST)
Taking the under in a Leeds game? Borderline psychotic, but hear me out. Everton largely struggled against a terrible Southampton backline, and it took a couple of top class goals to break away in a game that never should have been close. On the other side of the ball the Toffees looked strong (ignoring an inexcusably stupid mistake for Southampton’s goal that is probably not going to repeat itself), so I don’t think this game is a shoe in to be a shootout. In fact, Everton are likely to want to play for a low scoring game where they slow down the pace and stop Leeds from turning this tie into an end-to-end affair.
Leeds live or die by their aggressive style, which can be useful but is also liable to cause the type of massacre we saw against United on Sunday. The difference here is that Everton aren’t led by world class talent like Pogba or Fernandes, and getting into one of those Russian style slap fights (go look it up on the interweb) to see who can stay conscious longer doesn’t suit their style. While this won’t be a completely dull battle, I think Everton have enough in them tactically to manage the game and keep the chances to a lower number as the better side. At +126 for under 2.5, the number is also overly skewed by the opening week matches that these sides played, which means we’re getting good money for our bet. It’s not my favorite pick of the week if you’re only trying to gamble on a few, but it’s the right play.
💰 Pick: Under 2.5 goals (+126, 1 unit)
Southampton vs. Manchester United: Sun Aug 22, 9am (EST)
Southampton are very bad on defense (see last week). United are very good on offense (once again, see last week). While there is no such thing as an easy match in the Prem, this feels pretty damn close to it (god, I may be setting myself up to look like a real jackass here). United put on an offensive masterclass without Cavani or Rashford last weekend, and if they play even half as well as they did against Leeds then the Saints will be pretty helpless to stop them from putting up a crooked number. Want an easy stat to make sense of this game? The last time these two faced in a league match, the final score was 9-0 (helped by an early red card, but I don’t let something silly like that get in the way of my argument). In all seriousness, this game likely ends somewhere in the 3-0/3-1 range, and I’m staking two bets on that expectation.
United should win this match, simply because they’re that much better, and we’re getting some solid value at -165 for a match that feels closer to -200. I also like United to do some serious offensive damage, and +215 for over 2.5 goals by the Red Devils feels like a great potential payout for the risk. It’s a bit aggressive for one game, but I’m having a hard time seeing much else here.
💰 Pick: Man Utd ML (-165, 2 units), Man Utd to score over 2.5 goals (+215, 1 unit)
Arsenal vs. Chelsea: Sun Aug 22, 11:30am (EST)
I make mistakes some days, folks. That’s part of life, and it’s certainly part of gambling. But “mistake” might be a generous way to put my decision to bet the Arsenal ML in their opening game, and I’m willing to own up to that. It’s perfectly ironic too, because I 100% wanted them to lose but I pissed away all that happiness by betting on Spurs’ rival and wasting my money. Oh well, spilt milk so they say. And one of the most important lessons we can learn when gambling is not to make the same mistake twice, so let’s go ahead and throw our chips on the Chelsea ML. To be honest, I have no fucking clue how the line is only -130 here. The reigning UCL champions, who beat the ever loving piss out of their opponent in Week 1, are barely less than standard odds against a team who lost their opening matchup to a bunch of bees and who didn’t even qualify for Europe. Don’t think too much on this one, and laugh all the way to the bank (do people still bring cash to the bank? Whatever, that’s not important).
💰 Pick: Chelsea ML (-130, 1.5 units)
English Championship Picks
Blackburn vs. West Brom Albion: Sat Aug 21, 10am (EST)
Can’t Stop, Won’t Stop! (An early 2000s hip hop reference? Yeah, I’m a cartoon of many talents). For anyone who’s been here the last two weeks, I don’t need to say much else. To sum my position up in a sentence, West Brom play a crazy offensive style that leads to goals by the bucketload. I firmly believe that, as long as I’m getting them at positive odds on the over 2.5, there’s absolutely no reason to turn it down. But what about their opponent, you say? Doesn’t that matter? No, and that’s the beauty of it. Their style is so aggressive and imposing that the opposition has no choice but to play into it. I’ll take this value every time until the books change (which, in fairness, they may not because so little money is being thrown on a line like this), and I have no shame in winning the same way week after week.
💰 Pick: Over 2.5 goals (+124, 1 unit)
🇪🇸 Best La Liga Picks
Athletic Bilbao vs. Barcelona: Sat Aug 21, 4pm (EST)
Despite the hilarious (and completely unsurprising) reports that Barcelona are in over 1 Billion dollars of debt, they still have enough talent to float along and win most matches in La Liga. That also shouldn’t be surprising, because the league’s money rights are set up to help them and Real stay on top, but nonetheless I’ll mention it. Basically, Barcelona at these odds to win against anyone besides Real, Atletico or Sevilla is crazy, and they’re still a far better side than Bilbao even without Messi. Barcelona handled a decent Sociedad side on Sunday, and they should be able to outclass their opponents this weekend as well. At -115, the value is also too good to pass up. It may not be a groundbreaking pick (you’ll see it from almost every damn handicapper), but it’s the right one.
💰 Pick: Barcelona ML (-115, 1.5 units)
Levante vs. Real Madrid: Sun Aug 22, 4pm (EST)
Real Madrid are capable of scoring in bunches. Just ask Alaves, who had the Spanish giants at 0-0 going into halftime before giving up 3 goals in the first 17 minutes of the second period and losing by an eventual 4-1 score line. Madrid have talent and are going to score goals, but are also slightly susceptible to a bad defensive mistake of their own, which points me to a higher scoring game. This isn’t a sexy pick, especially at -156, but there’s value to be had at the over 2.5. Madrid very well could cover this number on their own, and I expect this game to skew towards more goals as they continue their war path back to the top of La Liga, which is theirs for the taking this season. (Yes, I made this pick entirely based on Real. If you want me to talk more about Levante I’m happy to, but I figured I’d spare the unnecessary words).
💰 Pick: Over 2.5 goals (-156, 2 units)
🇫🇷 Best French Ligue 1 Picks
Nice vs. Marseille: Sun Aug 22, 2:45pm (EST)
One of my best victories from last weekend’s slate was Nice proving me completely right and covering the over in their match with Lille by half time. To put things simply, their offense is solid enough to produce goals, and the only danger with betting their over’s is the fact that they’ve yet to concede a goal this season.
Well, enter Marseille, who have scored 5 goals in their first two games and who are happy to go blow for blow with their opponents, regardless of who it is. Marseille have only been shut out five times this calendar year and only once in their last ten competitive matches, which tells me they’re a pretty damn good bet to find the back of the net at least one time. While Nice have successfully held their last two opponents to nil, they’ll know it’s unlikely they manage to do that here and that they will have to get aggressive if they want 3 points at home. I think both of these teams implement more offensive tactics based on the matchup (or, in Marseille’s case, because it’s just what they do) and we see a game in the 3 to 4 goal range. At -104, the value is great here and it’s definitely worth the risk.
💰 Pick: Over 2.5 goals (-104, 1.5 units)
🇮🇹 Best Serie A Picks
Udinese vs. Juventus: Sun Aug 22, 12:30pm EST
I have absolutely no idea how, but Serie A is no longer a snorefest of 1-0 and 0-0 games. I used to hate turning on a Champions League match with an Italian side because you KNEW it was going to be boring, but Italian soccer may be some of the most exciting to watch these days. And to welcome the league back for their first matchweek, I have a bet that fits right with that trend. Here, we’re going with Both Teams To Score. Juventus should have no problem fulfilling their half of the bargain, considering they put up 77 goals in 38 games last season. Udinese finding the back of the net will be a bit more of a concern, but Juventus gave up a goal a game (on average) last year and Udinese aren’t a complete pushover. They’ve got enough talent to cause problems for any back line, and they scored at least one in 5 of their last 6 Serie A matches last year. At close to standard odds (-116), I like the value on this bet, which basically comes down to whether you think the home side can put one goal past Juventus. I believe they will, and Juventus should score a couple (if not more).
💰 Picks: Both teams to score (BTTS) (-116, 1 unit)
⚽ Euro Soccer Leagues
Leuven vs. Eupen: Sat Aug21, 12:30pm EST
Who’s ready to get weird? If you’re looking for proof that I’m capable and willing to go further into the depths of European soccer than most cappers, here you go. Nobody in their right mind would choose to watch this match with the gluttony of other soccer options available, but value is value. And, here, that value is fading the hell out of Leuven, who are absolutely fucking terrible right now. Leuven drew their first 3 matches of the season against mid-table to relegation level clubs, and then got their god damn doors blown off by Genk last week. There is no gas in the tank for this team, something which cannot be said about a Eupen side who have tied two of the Belgian giants this year (Anderlecht and Brugge) and won their other two matches. Basically, the form of these two clubs is completely divergent, and to get +160 on the ML for 4th place Eupen against 17th placed Leuven is too nice to pass up. Not a big bet, but it’s worth a shot to make some money.
💰 Pick: Eupen ML (+160, 1 unit)
Randers vs. Aalborg: Sun Aug 22, 8am (EST)
Aaaaaand even further down the rabbit hole we go. This line is actually an absolute steal. Randers are a solid side who qualified for European soccer and sit atop the Superliga after 5 matches. Then we have Aalborg, a club you have almost certainly never heard of, because you have a life and can’t waste it on nonsense like this. But, good news for you, that’s what I’m here for. Aalborg have overachieved so far and sit 5th in the table, but it has a lot more to do with a favorable fixture schedule (their two wins are against the bottom two teams) than being a talented club. So to get Randers with positive odds at home to win is a gift, that I assume exists purely because nobody else gives a damn about this game. Jokes on them, because I’ll go anywhere in the gambling world to make money. I expect Randers handles this one comfortably, and I’ll be hammering it.
💰 Pick: Randers ML (+130, 2 units)
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