Free Soccer Picks and Predictions – English Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, Championship, Superliga Bets

He's back! Prospector Sam was the best free capper in the game last season and he's back with his weekly free soccer picks.

Folks, it’s finally here. The greatest period of gambling, Mid August-January, begins this weekend and I could not be more excited. We’re talking 6 months of constant Christmas and 3 day weekends and orgasms all wrapped up in a nice bow for degenerates like myself (too far? Oh well, I am what I am). While it might be a little premature [insert lazy premature ejaculation joke here, you can use your imagination like one of those ad libs] to celebrate given that football is still a couple of weeks out, a full slate of soccer is good enough for me.

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And that’s why you’re all here. You’re looking for the drugs (aka soccer picks), and I’m a dealer ready to supply them (sorry if you’re reading this, mom. You did a great job raising me, I’m just broken). We’ve got the Prem, La Liga, Bundesliga, and Eredivisie all starting up this week, joining Ligue 1 (and some other fringe leagues I may or may not touch). We’re still waiting on the Italians, who, as always, are “fashionably late,” but there’s enough options for me to not miss them at all.

So why delay? Last week was a bit of a clusterfuck, but nothing that’ll hurt you too bad. We ended down .44 units, mostly because PSG decided not to play their entire fucking team and they couldnt make it past the two goal mark. Gambling will kick you in the dick some days, and that one certainly felt like a direct hit. But a new week awaits, and this time we have more high quality options. As a general note, my picks will heavily skew towards the Premier League because that’s my bread and butter, but I bet the other leagues a fair amount as well so I’ll throw in strong picks where I see them. Now let’s get Scrooge McDuck Rich!

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⚽ Premier League Picks

Brentford vs. Arsenal

Damn, what an interesting matchup to start the season. On one side we have Brentford, a newly promoted club who embody the English soccer dream having risen from the fourth tier all the way to the Prem in the span of 13 years. On the other side we have Arsenal, the historical giants who have lost their way and finished all the way down in 9th last year to miss out completely on European football (I’m a Spurs fan, I couldn’t resist). Normally you would expect this to be an easy game for the Gunners against a newly promoted side, but this squad has underperformed in recent years and nothing comes easy to them these days. But I think this game sets up well for Arsenal, as hard as that is to say, and the value is great. Arsenal finished on a run of 5 straight wins to end last season, and were actually fairly successful on the defensive end all year. While Brentford led the Championship in scoring in 2021, they’re facing a whole different beast here and are unlikely to score more than a goal, if anything. The Gunners are also more talented all over the pitch, and it will take time for Brentford to adjust to the quality of the Premier League. Brentford are likely a side that will be fighting to not get relegated, while Arsenal are, at worst, a mid-table team. At -115, that’s great value for a game they should win. I hate betting on the Gunners, but the money is right here.

💰 Pick: Arsenal ML (-115, 1 unit)

Watford vs. Aston Villa

Betting on newly promoted teams is a dangerous fucking game. Sometimes they walk in and look completely outclassed to start the campaign (see the above prediction), and other times they’re so motivated they put in early strong performances before regressing back. Class me crazy here, but I think Watford has a good chance to pull off the latter. Villa had a respectable season in 2020/2021, ending in 11th and posting a positive GD. BUT, they also performed pretty terribly in the second half of the campaign and showed they belong closer to the relegation line than the European spots.

Oh, and they just sold their best player a few days ago, which leaves them lacking any top quality talent. More important for me is that Watford are not going to be shell shocked by this league. The Hornets only spent 1 year in the Championship and comfortably came back up after second place finish. At home, they really shouldn’t be all that outmatched, but the books think otherwise. Watford are +230 on the moneyline, which is decent value (not enough to feel great about, though), but the double chance on a Watford victory OR draw is just -165. Villa are a slightly better side at best, and I think either a draw or Watford victory at Vicarage road are very likely outcomes. Ride this on a 1.5 unit bet to make some money on a bad early season line by the books.

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💰 Pick: Double Chance: Watford/Draw (-165, 1 unit)

Everton vs. Southampton

This is another line that doesn't make one fucking ounce of sense to me. Everton are a decent club, destined to piss away any chance to grow into a real competitor but always comfortably safe by February. They’ll lose games they should lose, and win games they should win. And, honestly, this is a game they absolutely should win. Southampton were a nightmare last year after a solid first few months of the season, and they ended the campaign having given up the second most goals in the entire fucking league. That’s very, very bad (or maybe impressive that they managed to not get relegated, you be the judge). The Saints had some bright spots, most notably a run to the semis of the FA cup, but overall they’re teetering on the edge of becoming a relegation threat. So Everton, who now have a solid manager in Rafa Benitez at the helm, should be comfortable favorites here. And, yet, they’re at just -110 on the ML. I fucking love it. It’s early in the year, and weird results are certainly a possibility, but an even return at Goodison against a bottom club in the Prem isn’t a number you get often. Take it and run.

💰 Pick: Everton ML (-110, 1.5 units)

Tottenham vs. Man City

As I do with every single fucking Spurs game I bet, I will start with the caveat that I’m a huge fan and I am almost certainly biased when it comes to this team. Biased in what way? Well, it depends. Sometimes I forget the constant pain of this fandom and get optimistic, while other times I’m a curmudgeon blasting everything they do. Just be aware that I have a personal interest here beyond the gambling, and do with it what you will. As for the real game, I don’t see how you can bet against City. This team ran away with the title last year then went out and bought Jack Graelish despite absolutely not needing him just because they could.

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Oh, and Harry Kane may not even be suiting up which means our best player, who we desperately need to score against the best defense in the world, will either not be on the pitch or not match-ready. I’ve been saying recently that this City team has a chance to break records this year for total points and other impressive stats. That path of destruction should start week one, and Spurs are more than likely going to just lay down and let it happen with the defense they’re currently putting out on the pitch. It’s not a proud pick for me, but it’s the right one.

💰 Pick: Man City ML (-165, 1 unit)

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⚽ La Liga Picks

Celta Vigo vs. Atletico Madrid

Celta Vigo do not give one single fuck about playing disciplined soccer. In 38 league matches last season they scored 55 goals and gave up 57, the latter of which was tied for second most in the league. How they finished in 8th is an absolute mystery, but I digress. Moving on to this game, you have to LOVE the over. Not only do you have the swashbuckling style of Celta, you have title holders Athletico on the other side of the pitch who are more than capable of taking advantage of their defensive frailty. Athletico averaged nearly 2 goals per game themselves, and I expect they will take advantage of the sloppy tactics of their opponents to at least match that 2 goal number. There really isn’t too much else that needs to be said here. Trends and statistics paint a clear picture some days, and getting positive value on the over 2.5 is too good to pass up. Hammer this one.

💰 Pick: Over 2.5 goals (+104, 2 units)

⚽ Bundesliga Picks

Wolfsburg vs. Bochum

I’m not going to get too crazy in the Bundesliga. In fact, these are going to be fairly small bankroll builders that won’t do a ton for you. But the return is right for the price, and I go where the board takes me. Wolfsburg are at home, coming off a 4th place Bundesliga finish and a spot in the Champions League, facing newly promoted Bochum. That has massacre written all over it. And, just as you’d expect, the line is….. -200? Meanwhile, Bayern are basically facing the same odds on the road against an experienced Monchengladbach side? Yeah, this screams value to me and you don’t really need to think much to see why. Take this one and bet it heavy.

💰 Pick: Wolfsburg ML (-200, 2 units)

Mainz vs. RB Leipzig

I like this pick slightly less, but only slightly. Leipzig are the new third head of the German triumvirate, and finished second last season. They have as much money as they could ever want, and comfortably walk their way to the top of the table on a perennial basis. Mainz, well, they’re Mainz. They live to finish somewhere between 11th and 16th, and never do much of anything against any of the bigger clubs. Knowing your place is an important skill in this world, and Mainz have mastered it in order to stay in the top flight. But, they really don’t stand much of a chance against the top clubs, and Leipzig are just that. This fixture might be a bit tricky as an opening week away game, but nothing about this matchup says anything to me besides a Leipzig win. -175 isn’t bad for the way this game should play out, take the value and run with it.

💰 Pick: RB Leipzig ML (-175, 1 unit)

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⚽ Ligue 1 Picks

Lille vs. Nice

Lille were an absolute dumpsterfire in their opening weekend match, and that may be putting it nicely. They gave up 3 goals to Metz in their first game since taking the French title, and were bailed out for a point after a bad red card and a 98th minute goal. This team is bound to play better than that and they face an easier test with a home match against Nice, but I’m not ready to scrub away the filth I saw from Lille just yet. Instead, I’m going with the over. Lille’s match had a whopping 6 goals, which shows they are capable of both scoring and giving up a large number. Nice played a completely different game, tying 0-0 with Reims, but they dominated every facet of the game and probably deserved better, especially on the score sheet. I don’t think we necessarily get a 6-goal shootout here, but I think this game tends closer to the 3 or 4 goal mark, and at positive odds I think the return is way higher than it should be for two teams who will be gunning for goals.

💰 Picks: Over 2.5 goals (+116, 1 unit)

⚽ English Championship Picks

West Brom vs. Luton

If I learned one lesson from last week (aside from how much I hate PSG) it’s that West Brom are an absolutely wild team to watch. Valerian Ismael took over this side in the summer and plays a style that can be aptly described as “putting a bunch of fit 6 year olds on the pitch and giving them crack.” The Baggies press at all times and force their opponents to make dangerous passes, while also leaving themselves completely exposed if their pressure is broken. So, until I have any reason to expect otherwise, I think West Brom’s matches will have a lot of chances and a lot of goals. We won money together last week on a 2-2 draw, and the books are still giving us positive odds on the over in this match. I trust what I saw, and I think the over continues to be the right play given their style.

💰 Pick: Over 2.5 (+104, 1.5 units)

⚽ Supeliga Soccer Picks

Aarhus vs. Copenhagen

You may be asking yourself, “what in the fuck are we doing in Denmark?” Honestly, it’s a valid question, and one with a simple answer. I poke around the lower leagues to check for value every weekend but don’t bet them often unless I see something great. This one qualifies. Copenhagen are the perennial powerhouses of Denmark, regularly finishing in the top of the table. Last year was a bit bizarre, but they’re generally a safe bet to walk away with 3 points unless they’re playing Midtjylland or Randers. Here, they face Aarhaus, a side with 2 points through 4 matches who have come back to earth after a wild 3rd place campaign in 2021. The odds are even for Copenhagen to take the game and that’s good enough value for this matchup, in a league where bigger clubs consistently beat up on the the sides with less money. This is a generous line, so take a whack and show your friends how worldly you are by betting Danish soccer.

💰 Pick: Copenhagen ML (+100, 1 unit)

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