Five facts you need to know before betting on Super Bowl LX

Those teams all won the Super Bowl that year, going 4-0 when the league's number one wideout reached the big game.

The Dimers model projecting JSN for nearly 100 receiving yards alongside a Seattle win aligns perfectly with how this matchup is likely to tilt.

The offense has consistently funneled through Smith-Njigba, who accounted for 44.3% of Sam Darnold’s 4,048 passing yards this season.

The Patriots have also struggled most against strong route-winning receivers who can use a variety of looks (9 rec, 118 yards for Drake London, 6 rec, 98 yards to Chris Olave, for example) exactly JSN’s profile, and only faced one Top 10 passing offense this year in the Bills, who don't have a top WR talent like Smith-Njigba.

If Christian Gonzales can hold JSN to the production he's limited WRs to so far in the playoffs, then New England will have a fighting chance - see why this scenario bodes well for Rashid Shaheed on the latest Dimers Sports Betting Podcast.

But if the top wideout is allowed to do what he does best, history points towards a Seattle victory.

2.  Dominant running defenses

The Seahawks' rushing defense led the NFL in yards per carry this season, while the Patriots’ run offense has struggled all season, ranking 25th in rushing EPA.

Both Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson have seen diminishing returns by YPC over each game in the postseason as well, now facing a Seattle defense that leads the NFL in yards per carry allowed (3.74) all season. The Dimers model projects them for just 76.1 rushing yards combined, with 56.1 for Stevenson and 20.0 for Henderson.

On the other side, Seattle’s run game is consolidated around Kenneth Walker with Zach Charbonnet out, but he''ll be running into a wall as well.

New England’s run defense has been dominant with DT Milton Williams healthy, allowing no running back to top 50 rushing yards in a game. Williams returned in Week 18, and RBs vs. the Patriots in the playoffs have recorded 37, 31, 17, 14 and 11 rushing yards.

The Dimers model projects Walker for 80.1 rushing yards, but he might be lined up to make an impact in another facet of the game.

The Patriots' defense allowed the 6th-most running back receptions this year, and Walker has receiving yards totals of 29, 36, 49 and 67 in his past five games, projecting for 23.3 in the Super Bowl.

3.  The Achilles Heel for Seattle's passing game

Seattle's passing defense is elite, allowing under 200 yards per game in the regular season.

However, there was one area where they were regularly exposed, and that was defending tight ends, where they ranked  27th in the NFL in yards allowed per game, on 8.6 targets and 6.2 receptions.

While they largely kept them out of the end zone at 0.4 TDs per game, it was a weakness in the middle of the field all season, one the Patriots could try to exploit with their second-leading passcatcher on the year.

Patriots TE Hunter Henry has been on the field as much as any player left in the postseason - his 76 routes run through three games are just one behind Stefon Diggs.

Henry’s projection from the Dimers model aligns cleanly with Seattle’s defensive profile and New England’s likely counters - at 3.5 receptions and 41.2 receiving yards, he projects as the third-most productive passer in this entire game.

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4.  Both teams have a sack problem on opposite sides

Drake Maye has the Patriots in the Super Bowl, but it may be despite his offensive line.

Maye has been sacked 15 times in the playoffs, 5 times in each game, and now will face a Seattle defense that generates pressure at excellent efficiency - they sit in the bottom third of the NFL in blitz rate, but generate pressures like a team in the top third.

However, that hasn't translated in the playoffs, where Seattle has managed just three sacks in its two playoff games so far.

If they can't generate enough pressure to sack Drake Maye, but enough to get him moving, he could punish them with his legs. Maye's 38.1 rushing yards projection is the third-highest in this game, also popping up with touchdown value in the Dimers App.

5.  The Patriots won this first Super Bowl meeting 28-24

Okay, this one is less of a fact and more of a fun note we can't help but look at.

The Dimers model projects an average final score in our simulations of 25-21 in favor of Seattle.

Because they are averages of over 10,000 simulations, we see a number not very common in football final scores, 25.

But add the smallest football key number to each of those and we get 28-24 Seahawks, the exact opposite of the final score in Super Bowl XLIX.

A longshot? The very definition of one.

But it's at 250/1 odds ($1 to win $250) on FanDuel, compared to 150/1 ($1 to win $150) on DraftKings, pointing to a big discrepancy on the books

That result fully aligns with the Dimers model's predictions of Seattle to win, New England to cover and the Over of 45.5.

Dimers' Super Bowl 60 betting resources

• Patriots vs. Seahawks Game Predictions: Our data-backed preview of Super Bowl LX
• NFL Player  Projections Hub: Projected boxscores and TD probabilities for every player
• The Dimers Sports Betting Podcast: Watch every episode featuring our two weeks of Super Bowl LX coverage
• Super Bowl Trends: Fade or follow these historical results?
• Super Bowl Halftime Show Bets and Odds: Bad Bunny rake the stage at Super Bowl LX
• King of the End Zone: Touchdown predictions for DraftKings' $M jackpot

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