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Farmers Insurance Open PGA predictions, picks and course preview at Torrey Pines
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Reviewed by Nick Slade
The 2026 PGA TOUR season continues with the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines in La Jolla, CA and we have the best value bets identified by the Dimers golf model.
The Farmers Insurance Open returns to Torrey Pines as the first true stress test of the PGA TOUR season, beginning on Thursday, January 29, and Dimers' golf predictions are here to help you find the best value picks in La Jolla, CA.
Brooks Koepka makes his return to the PGA TOUR, Xander Schauffele tees off his 2026 season in his hometown, headlining plenty of notable storylines this week.
Played across a two-course rotation, golfers will tackle both the North and South Courses once before the 36-hole cut, with only the South Course used over the weekend. Winning scores here are typically in the low teens, reflecting the difficulty of the setup and the limited scoring opportunities, particularly once the field is confined to the South.
The South Course is the centerpiece and the challenge. Measuring 7,765 yards as a par 72, it is the longest course on TOUR. Narrow fairways, small greens averaging just 5,000 square feet, thick four-inch rough, and bumpy Poa annua putting surfaces combine to make every part of the game demanding. Players must pair strong driving with consistent long-iron play and the ability to limit mistakes.
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The North Course provides a brief reprieve early in the week. At 7,258 yards, it is significantly shorter with larger greens, averaging roughly 6,000 square feet.
From a performance standpoint, this event consistently favors golfers who thrive on driver-heavy layouts, and key stats to watch alongside our projections include Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, with an emphasis on driving distance and Strokes Gained: Approach—particularly from long-iron range.
The Dimers Pro golf predictions ended last season on an elite run, headlined by Tommy Fleetwood's first win at the TOUR Championship. This season, we've accurately identified value on Scottie Scheffler to win and Russell Henley to place Top 10 and Top 20 at the American Express.
2026 Farmers Insurance Open Preview
Date: Jan. 29-Feb. 1, 2026
Location: La Jolla, California
Course: Torrey Pines (North & South Course)
Par: 72 / 7,258 yards (NC, 1 round), 72 / 7765 yards (SC, 3 rounds)
Purse: $9.6 million
Previous winner: Harris English (-8, 280)
Who Will Win the 2026 Farmers Insurance Open?
Below are the five most likely winners of the 2026 Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines this week.
Our win predictions are the result of simulating the tournament over 10,000 times via our AI models, as well as each golfer's odds to finish Top 5, 10 and 20:
Xander Schauffele leads the field with a 7.6% win probability. The San Diego native makes his season debut at Torrey Pines and profiles perfectly for this demanding setup with power, long-iron excellence, and a strong history on major-style courses.
J.J. Spaun carries a 5.9% win probability with solid Top 10 and Top 20 upside, reflecting his ability to grind on difficult layouts like Torrey Pines.
Cameron Young owns a 5.5% win probability and shows up in the Top 20 in just over half of simulations, supported by elite driving distance and putting. If his approach play holds up, he has legitimate upside on a course that rewards aggression off the tee.
Patrick Cantlay gets a 4.8% win probability with a steady floor, finishing Top 20 nearly 47% of the time and Top 10 just under 30%. While Torrey Pines hasn’t always been his best fit, his all-around consistency keeps him firmly in the mix if scoring conditions tighten.
Ludvig Ã…berg draws a 4.3% win probability and strong Top 10 and Top 20 rates that reflect his rapid rise among elite players. When healthy, his ball-striking and composure on difficult courses give him real win equity despite a limited course history.
| Golfer | Win% | Top 5% | Top 10% | Top 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xander Schauffele | 7.6% | 24.3% | 38.3% | 55.7% |
| J.J. Spaun | 5.9% | 20.7% | 33.2% | 49.7% |
| Cameron Young | 5.5% | 20.7% | 33.1% | 50.5% |
| Patrick Cantlay | 4.8% | 17.7% | 29.7% | 46.9% |
| Ludvig Aberg | 4.3% | 17.0% | 28.4% | 45.2% |
MORE: Dimers' In-House Golf Rankings
Dimers' Farmers Insurance Open Best Bets
For each tournament, we look at the golfers our model has identified with a higher probability to win than what is implied by the sportsbook odds.
We'll also highlight any standout prop and placement bets for other golfers if we find any appealing value hidden in the Dimers golf predictions.
Xander Schauffele to Win (+1500 on bet365)
Win probability: 7.6%
Dimers' fair odds: +1215
Xander Schauffele returns to Torrey Pines as the local favorite, looking to make an immediate statement in his 2026 debut. He missed the Farmers a year ago, but his form in big events remains elite, with three top-10 finishes in his last five major starts, including a top-10 at the U.S. Open.
He capped his last season with a victory at the Baycurrent Classic during the FedExCup Fall — his only start since August and one the Dimers model correctly identified. Off the tee, Schauffele brings both power and control, ranking 24th in driving distance, while his iron play remains a major strength with top-tier long-approach numbers.
While putting was a relative weakness for him last season, it has historically been a strength over his career, suggesting room for positive regression. When you combine his length, elite long-iron profile, and comfort on tough par 72s, Schauffele checks every box for success at Torrey Pines and profiles as one of the most complete fits in the field, offering value despite being the favorite.
J.J. Spaun to Win (+3000 on BetMGM)
Win probability: 5.9%
Dimers' fair odds: +1600
J.J. Spaun makes his 10th consecutive start at the Farmers Insurance Open, and familiarity is a major asset at a venue as demanding as Torrey Pines. He opened his 2025 season with a T40, showing flashes with opening and closing rounds of 66, but struggling to sustain momentum through the middle rounds.
Spaun’s course history is solid, highlighted by a T9 in his Farmers debut and a T15 finish last year, his two best results at this event. His biggest strength lines up well with the South Course’s demands as he ranks fifth in the field in approaches from 200-plus yards, making him one of the strongest long-iron players in the field.
Spaun is not known for his driving distance or power, which caps his ceiling on a course that heavily favors bombers, but his skill set gives him a path to contend and he offers strong value according to the Dimers model at +3000 odds.
Cameron Young to Win (+2700 on Bet365)
Win probability: 5.5%
Dimers' fair odds: +1720
Cameron Young enters his fifth season on TOUR with expectations at an all-time high after a breakthrough campaign. He closed last season in electric form, highlighted by his first career win at the Wyndham Championship and a string of elite finishes — 1st, 5th, 11th, T4, T9, and 10th — firmly establishing him as a top-tier talent.
His history at Torrey Pines is limited, with a missed cut and a T20 in two appearances. Young brings serious power, ranking 17th in driving distance and 31st in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee last season., and while accuracy can be an issue, length is a major asset on a driver-heavy layout like the South Course.
Where Young truly separates himself is on the greens. He ranked seventh overall in Strokes Gained: Putting and fourth in one-putt percentage last year, giving him the ability to convert limited chances.
The concern is approach play, where he ranked well below field average last season, but if the irons cooperate, the ceiling is massive.
Hideki Matsuyama to Win (+3000 on bet365)
Win probability: 3.8%
Dimers' fair odds: +2530
Hideki Matsuyama arrives at Torrey Pines in a familiar position: quietly reliable and built for exactly this type of test. He won to open and close last season, opening 2026 with a solid T13 at the Sony Open.
Matsuyama has been one of the most consistent performers at the Farmers, making the cut in all nine appearances since 2017.
That consistency includes five career top-20 finishes at Torrey Pines, highlighted by a T3 and a T9,
He leans on elite tee-to-green precision and long-iron excellence, ranking 19th in Strokes Gained: Approach last season. Matsuyama projects with a high floor from our model, backed by strong course history and a skill set tailored for a demanding par-72 setup.
Best Props at the Farmers Insurance Open
With plenty of value in the top contenders, we're highlighting a couple of other ways to use the Dimers data.
Alex Noren Ladder Play
Alex Noren opened the year with a missed cut last week, but found serious form last season after missing the first four months, producing four top-10 finishes in his final five starts, including a T7, a T3, and a playoff runner-up.
Noren stands out as one of the biggest value plays in the field, nearly doubling his fair odds with his win probability at 2.6% (fair at +3750) and odds of +7000.
Rather than treating him as a pure win-or-bust option, this is an ideal ladder setup. The model gives him a 36.1% chance to finish Top 20 at +290, a 21.0% chance to crack the Top 10 at +500, and an 11.2% chance to reach the Top 5 at +1000, with the 2.6% win probability a high-risk, high-reward play.
Noren’s elite putting profile, third in Strokes Gained: Putting last season, could be a real edge on the South Course’s tough greens. He lacks the raw power of some of the favorites, but strong recent form and a reliable putter give him sneaky upside across multiple finishing positions.
Top 20 Parlay
Our model points to three golfers with a 50% probability or higher to finish Top 20, with two of them presenting an edge at their odds.
Xander Schauffele (55.7%), Cameron Young (50.5%) and J.J. Spaun (49.7%) combine for a +915 Top 20 parlay at DraftKings, where you can play a 3+ leg Top Finish parlay with a 20% boost.
Expert Golf Picks and Predictions for 2026 PGA TOUR
As well as being your best source for PGA golf predictions, Dimers Pros also have access to the latest golf news, golf predictions for every game, weekly golf rankings, and golf matchup H2H tool.
- PGA Predictions: Our data-backed predictions for every tournament, including every major.
- Head-to-Head Predictor: Simulate any H2H tournament matchup between golfers
- Dimers' PGA Rankings: Our in-house approach to ranking the World's best golfers
- PGA Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the PGA TOUR
Dimers and Responsible Gambling
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To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Nick Slade through our fact-checking process.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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