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Elche vs. Alaves prediction, odds, La Liga picks [5/9/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Elche vs Alaves predictions for La Liga Saturday.
Elche will take on Alaves in La Liga action on Saturday, starting at 8:00 AM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced La Liga model predicts Elche as the most likely winner of the Elche vs. Alaves game.
This article offers a closer look at Saturday's match, including best bets and picks.
Elche vs. Alaves prediction: Who will win?
Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's La Liga match between Elche and Alaves, forming part of our La Liga predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently indicates a 44.3% chance of Elche winning, a 30.3% chance for Alaves, and a 25.5% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 51% chance of going over, according to our model.
Elche vs. Alaves odds
We have sourced the best La Liga odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| Elche | Alaves | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| +130 | +235 | +230 |
Total Goals
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|
| -110 | -120 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Elche vs. Alaves picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Elche | +130 |
| Total Goals | Over 2.5 | -110 |
According to our La Liga best bets, the top play to make on this game is Elche to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Elche vs. Alaves: Correct score and BTTS predictions
The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Elche 1-1 ALV | 12.1% |
| Elche 1-0 ALV | 10.1% |
| Elche 2-1 ALV | 9.1% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 54.2% chance of both sides finding the net and a 45.8% chance that at least one doesn’t.
These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, which means the most likely correct score can differ from our predicted winner.
Elche vs. Alaves game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's La Liga game between Elche and Alaves is scheduled to start in the United States at 8:00 AM ET.
- Who: Elche vs. Alaves
- Date: Saturday, May 9, 2026
- Time: 8:00 AM ET/5:00AM PT
Conclusion
According to our computer model, Elche has a 44.3% win probability on Saturday, Alaves has a 30.3% win probability, and there is a 25.5% chance that the game will end in a draw.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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