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Oilers vs. Maple Leafs prediction: Why Edmonton is favored to win Saturday's NHL matchup [12/13/2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Edmonton Oilers vs Toronto Maple Leafs predictions for NHL Saturday.
The Toronto Maple Leafs will face the Edmonton Oilers, in what is expected to be a tight NHL game, at Scotiabank Arena on Saturday, beginning at 7:00PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced NHL model gives the Oilers a slight edge with a 53% win probability over the Maple Leafs.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Saturday's Oilers vs. Maple Leafs matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Oilers vs. Maple Leafs prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's NHL matchup between the Oilers and Maple Leafs 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Oilers a 53% chance of defeating the Maple Leafs.
According to our model, the Maple Leafs (+1.5) have a 68% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of 6.5 goals has a 53% chance of staying under.
Oilers vs. Maple Leafs odds
We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Oilers | Maple Leafs |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | -1.5 (+190) | +1.5 (-200) |
| Moneyline | -135 | +115 |
| Total | o6.5 (-105) | u6.5 (-112) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Oilers vs. Maple Leafs picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Maple Leafs +1.5 | -200 |
| Moneyline | Maple Leafs | +115 |
| Total | Under 6.5 | -112 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Maple Leafs +1.5 at the spread.
Oilers vs. Maple Leafs player props
Who will score a goal in Oilers vs. Maple Leafs?
According to our model, Leon Draisaitl is most likely to score an anytime goal in Oilers vs. Maple Leafs.
Our projections give Draisaitl a 43.7% chance of scoring a goal at Scotiabank Arena, while the star is a 9.2% chance of registering the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Edmonton Oilers
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Leon Draisaitl | 43.7% |
| Connor McDavid | 37.7% |
| Zach Hyman | 35.9% |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | 23.0% |
| Evan Bouchard | 17.1% |
Toronto Maple Leafs
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Auston Matthews | 43.5% |
| John Tavares | 35.8% |
| William Nylander | 35.4% |
| Matthew Knies | 29.7% |
| Easton Cowan | 16.6% |
First goal scorer predictions
Edmonton Oilers
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Leon Draisaitl | 9.2% |
| Connor McDavid | 7.0% |
| Zach Hyman | 6.7% |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | 4.1% |
| Evan Bouchard | 3.0% |
Toronto Maple Leafs
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Auston Matthews | 8.7% |
| John Tavares | 7.4% |
| William Nylander | 7.0% |
| Matthew Knies | 5.6% |
| Easton Cowan | 3.1% |
Oilers vs. Maple Leafs game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's game between the Maple Leafs and Oilers at Scotiabank Arena is scheduled to begin at 7:00PM ET.
- Who: Edmonton Oilers vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
- Date: Saturday, December 13, 2025
- Time: 7:00PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: Scotiabank Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Oilers, with a 53% win probability, will likely beat the Maple Leafs on Saturday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Oilers vs. Maple Leafs insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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