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Oilers vs. Lightning prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Thursday's NHL matchup [11/20/2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Edmonton Oilers vs Tampa Bay Lightning predictions for NHL Thursday.
The Tampa Bay Lightning and Edmonton Oilers will lock horns in the NHL at Benchmark International Arena on Thursday, with puck drop at 7:30PM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced NHL model predicts the Lightning as the most likely winner of the Oilers vs. Lightning game.
This article offers further insights into Thursday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Oilers vs. Lightning prediction: Who will win and cover?
As part of Dimers' NHL predictions coverage—and following a review of recent results—our pregame model has generated moneyline, puck line, and over/under probabilities for Thursday's clash between the Oilers and Lightning.
Our leading predictive model gives the Lightning a 59% chance of defeating the Oilers.
According to our model, the Oilers (+1.5) have a 62% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6.5-goal over/under has a 52% chance of staying under.
Oilers vs. Lightning odds
We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Oilers | Lightning |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-175) | -1.5 (+145) |
| Moneyline | +142 | -170 |
| Total | o6.5 (-110) | u6.5 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Oilers vs. Lightning picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Oilers +1.5 | -175 |
| Moneyline | Oilers | +142 |
| Total | Under 6.5 | -105 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 6.5 total goals.
Oilers vs. Lightning player props
Who will score a goal in Oilers vs. Lightning?
According to our model, Leon Draisaitl is most likely to score an anytime goal in Oilers vs. Lightning.
Our projections give Draisaitl a 44.1% chance of scoring a goal at Benchmark International Arena, while the star is an 8.9% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Edmonton Oilers
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Leon Draisaitl | 44.1% |
| Zach Hyman | 35.3% |
| Connor McDavid | 33.0% |
| Jack Roslovic | 25.3% |
| Andrew Mangiapane | 15.3% |
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel | 43.8% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 40.3% |
| Brayden Point | 38.2% |
| Brandon Hagel | 29.2% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 28.4% |
First goal scorer predictions
Edmonton Oilers
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Leon Draisaitl | 8.9% |
| Zach Hyman | 6.6% |
| Connor McDavid | 6.2% |
| Jack Roslovic | 4.4% |
| Andrew Mangiapane | 2.7% |
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel | 9.0% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 8.2% |
| Brayden Point | 7.3% |
| Brandon Hagel | 5.9% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 5.2% |
Oilers vs. Lightning game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's action between the Lightning and Oilers at Benchmark International Arena is scheduled to begin at 7:30PM ET.
- Who: Edmonton Oilers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
- Date: Thursday, November 20, 2025
- Time: 7:30PM ET/4:30PM PT
- Venue: Benchmark International Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Lightning, with a 59% win probability, will likely beat the Oilers on Thursday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Oilers vs. Lightning insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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