Did a Reddit post cause Will Levis' No.1 Overall pick odds drop from +5000 to +600?

We are less than two days away from the 2023 NFL Draft on Thursday, April 27. The NFL Draft continues to be one of the most volatile betting markets in all of professional sports. Fueled by rumors, chatter, mock drafts by big-time insiders and tons of sharp and public money coming in, the NFL Draft markets see a ton of fluctuation in the odds.

With the market opening almost immediately after the Super Bowl, an abundance of factors start affect the market; offseason signings, trades, and cuts consistently alter the landscape of the NFL draft.

Sometimes the effects are minor and other times they send shockwaves through the market. University of Kentucky QB Will Levis and his odds of being the No. 1 overall pick did the latter early Tuesday morning.

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Twitter was set ablaze Tuesday morning with a monumental odds shift in the draft markets pertaining to Will Levis. At odds as high as +5000 on PointsBet Sportsbook or even off the board entirely at BetMGM, Levis was not expected to be a contender for the No. 1 overall pick. Alabama QB Bryce Young has widely been considered the eventual first selection at Thursday’s NFL Draft, as made clear by his -2000 price at BetMGM.

🚨 1ST OVERALL PICK ODDS SHIFT 🚨

This morning:
- Bryce Young -2000
- Will Levis Off the board

Two hours ago:
- Young -1400
- Levis +500

Now:
- Young -550
- Levis +300 pic.twitter.com/f137ZKhXac

— BetMGM 🦁 (@BetMGM) April 25, 2023

Seemingly out of nowhere, Levis’ odds to go first overall began to plummet, and as of this writing, he’s as short as +650 (BetMGM) to be selected by the Carolina Panthers on Thursday. The shift has thrown the sports betting industry into utter chaos.

So, what happened with Will Levis’ odds?

Though Bryce Young has been favored for several weeks, it’s not uncommon for questions to arise around who will be selected at a given pick as the draft approaches, especially the first overall. Sometimes it’s a smokescreen put out by teams to mask what their true intent is, and other times it’s backed by legitimate sources that suggest things may not be as set in stone as they seem.

As of right now, it’s impossible to know for sure the exact cause of the move. The likely answer is either some insider information that has made its way to the books regarding who the Panthers like at No. 1, or some major money was placed on Will Levis which caused the market to move initially. After that, it’s possible that the sudden shift caused the public to start hammering the odds, which would make the books drop the price even further as a response to reduce their liability. Or perhaps, the major move came from an unlikely source, Reddit.

Is this Reddit post behind the Levis No. 1 pick odds movement? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/2pUEYDMoi0

— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) April 25, 2023

Could this mysterious Reddit post be the initial source?

A post like this in a highly active (and often superstitious) community could certainly have triggered an influx of money on Will Levis, putting the sportsbooks at a major disadvantage if the post was indeed based in fact that had yet to make its way to the books.

Where the market stands now

PointsBet Sportsbook tweeted that Will Levis had gotten as low as +175 to be the No. overall pick, before receding back to +600 shortly after. There seems to be a general consensus among the books now as he sits at +650 on BetMGM, while Bryce Young remains the heavy favorite at -1200.

Levis is the favorite to be the second overall pick to the Houston Texans at +175 on BetMGM and has even shorter odds of +120 to be selected fourth overall by the Indianapolis Colts.

If he was a true threat to be the No. 1 pick, it’s doubtful that the books would still offer plus-money odds of +600. I mean, the man puts mayo in his coffee, it’s a red flag. Based on Bryce Young’s implied probability of 92.3%, Will Levis’ fair price should be closer to +1100. Regardless, it seems increasingly likely that Levis will be selected in the top five by one of the QB-needy teams in the NFL Draft. Come Thursday night, we’ll know the answer.

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