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Tigers vs. Red Sox prediction: Boston favored to win Monday's MLB matchup [4/20/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox predictions for MLB Monday.
The Boston Red Sox will take on the Detroit Tigers in MLB action at Fenway Park on Monday, starting at 11:10 AM ET.
Sonny Gray (2-1, 4.43 ERA) will get the ball for the Red Sox, while the Tigers are going with Jack Flaherty (0-1, 4.05 ERA).
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven MLB model projects the Red Sox as the most likely winner of the Tigers vs. Red Sox game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Monday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Tigers vs. Red Sox prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Monday's MLB game between the Tigers and Red Sox, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Red Sox a 56% chance of defeating the Tigers.
According to our model, the Tigers (+1.5) have a 61% chance of covering the run line, while the **8.5-run over/under **.
Tigers vs. Red Sox odds [4/20/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Tigers | Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-184) | -1.5 (+159) |
| Moneyline | +116 | -135 |
| Total | o8.5 (-102) | u8.5 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Tigers vs. Red Sox picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Red Sox -1.5 | +159 |
| Moneyline | Red Sox | -135 |
| Total | Over 8.5 | -102 |
According to our best MLB bets, the top play to make on this game is Red Sox -1.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Tigers vs. Red Sox game-day updates and essential details
Monday's MLB matchup between the Red Sox and Tigers at Fenway Park is scheduled to commence at 11:10 AM ET.
- Who: Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox
- Date: Monday, April 20, 2026
- Time: 11:10 AM ET/8:10AM PT
- Venue: Fenway Park
Conclusion
We predict the Red Sox, with a 56% win probability, will likely beat the Tigers in Monday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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