Red Wings vs. Penguins prediction: Why Pittsburgh is favored to win Thursday's NHL matchup [1/1/2026]

The Pittsburgh Penguins will face the Detroit Red Wings, in what is expected to be a tight NHL game, at PPG Paints Arena on New Year's Day, beginning at 7:00 PM ET.

Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven NHL model gives the Penguins a slight edge with a 54% win probability over the Red Wings.

This article offers further insights into Thursday's Red Wings vs. Penguins matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Red Wings vs. Penguins prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's NHL game between the Red Wings and Penguins 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Penguins a 54% chance of beating the Red Wings.

According to our model, the Red Wings (+1.5) have a 67% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of 6.5 goals has a 52% chance of staying under.

Red Wings vs. Penguins odds

We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Red Wings	Penguins
Puck Line	+1.5 (-210)	-1.5 (+180)
Moneyline	+114	-135
Total	o6.5 (-105)	u6.5 (-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Red Wings vs. Penguins picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Puck Line	Red Wings +1.5	-210
Moneyline	Red Wings	+114
Total	Under 6.5	-110

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 6.5 total goals.

Red Wings vs. Penguins player props

Who will score a goal in Red Wings vs. Penguins?

According to our model, Alex DeBrincat is most likely to score an anytime goal in Red Wings vs. Penguins.

Our projections give DeBrincat a 35.5% chance of scoring a goal at PPG Paints Arena, while the star is a 6.8% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Detroit Red Wings

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Alex DeBrincat	35.5%
Dylan Larkin	34.2%
Lucas Raymond	29.4%
Patrick Kane	22.8%
Emmitt Finnie	19.7%

Pittsburgh Penguins

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Sidney Crosby	34.6%
Bryan Rust	33.4%
Rickard Rakell	29.4%
Thomas Novak	26.9%
Anthony Mantha	26.6%

First goal scorer predictions

Detroit Red Wings

Player	First Goal Probability
Alex DeBrincat	6.8%
Dylan Larkin	6.6%
Lucas Raymond	4.9%
Patrick Kane	4.3%
James van Riemsdyk	3.4%

Pittsburgh Penguins

Player	First Goal Probability
Bryan Rust	6.4%
Sidney Crosby	6.3%
Rickard Rakell	5.5%
Thomas Novak	4.9%
Anthony Mantha	4.6%

Red Wings vs. Penguins game-day updates and essential details

Thursday's matchup between the Penguins and Red Wings at PPG Paints Arena is scheduled to begin at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: Detroit Red Wings vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
• Date: Thursday, January 1, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: PPG Paints Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Penguins, with a 54% win probability, will likely beat the Red Wings on New Year's Day.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Red Wings vs. Penguins insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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