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Lions vs. Vikings prediction: Why Detroit is favored to win in NFL Week 17 [2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings predictions for NFL Thursday.
NFL Week 17 action continues on Christmas Day at 4:30 PM ET as the favored Detroit Lions take on the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven NFL model predicts the Lions as the most likely winner of the Lions vs. Vikings game.
This article offers further insights into Thursday's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Lions vs. Vikings prediction: Who will win and cover?
Since our Lions-Vikings predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's NFL matchup between the Lions and Vikings 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Lions a 77% chance of beating the Vikings in Week 17 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Lions winning 25-18.
According to our model, the bookmakers have got it right, and the Lions and Vikings each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 43 points has a 52% chance of going over.
To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 17 straight up picks.
Lions vs. Vikings odds
We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Lions | Vikings |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -7.5 (-102) | +7.5 (-115) |
| Moneyline | -360 | +300 |
| Total | o43 (-110) | u43 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Lions vs. Vikings picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Lions -7.5 | -102 |
| Moneyline | Lions | -360 |
| Total | Over 43 | -110 |
According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Lions -7.5 at the spread.
Lions vs. Vikings TD scorers
Who will score a touchdown in Lions vs. Vikings?
According to our model, Jahmyr Gibbs is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Lions vs. Vikings.
Our projections give Gibbs a 62.4% chance of getting in for six at U.S. Bank Stadium, while the running back is a 17.8% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions
Detroit Lions
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs (RB) | 62.4% |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR) | 44.8% |
| David Montgomery (RB) | 36.8% |
| Jameson Williams (WR) | 33.8% |
| Isaac TeSlaa (WR) | 17.3% |
Minnesota Vikings
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson (WR) | 30.0% |
| Aaron Jones (RB) | 29.4% |
| Jordan Addison (WR) | 24.2% |
| Josh Oliver (TE) | 19.5% |
| Jalen Nailor (WR) | 18.8% |
First touchdown scorer predictions
Detroit Lions
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs (RB) | 17.8% |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR) | 10.8% |
| David Montgomery (RB) | 8.4% |
| Jameson Williams (WR) | 7.5% |
| Isaac TeSlaa (WR) | 3.5% |
Minnesota Vikings
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson (WR) | 7.1% |
| Aaron Jones (RB) | 7.0% |
| Jordan Addison (WR) | 5.5% |
| Josh Oliver (TE) | 4.3% |
| Jalen Nailor (WR) | 4.2% |
Lions vs Vikings player props
Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Lions and Vikings. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 17 games.
Quarterbacks
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Lions' Jared Goff is projected for 247 passing yards, while the Vikings' Max Brosmer is expected to throw for just 183 yards.
| Player | Proj. Pass Yards |
|---|---|
| Jared Goff (DET) | 247 |
| Max Brosmer (MIN) | 183 |
Lions rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 77 |
| David Montgomery | 37 |
| Jared Goff | 4 |
Vikings rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 63 |
| Ty Chandler | 22 |
| Zavier Scott | 13 |
Lions receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 80 |
| Jameson Williams | 68 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 37 |
| Isaac TeSlaa | 20 |
| Kalif Raymond | 16 |
Vikings receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 66 |
| Jordan Addison | 46 |
| Jalen Nailor | 26 |
| Josh Oliver | 24 |
| Aaron Jones | 21 |
Lions vs. Vikings game-day updates and essential details
The NFL Week 17 game between the Vikings and Lions at U.S. Bank Stadium is scheduled to commence at 4:30 PM ET.
- Who: Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings
- Date: Thursday, December 25, 2025
- Time: 4:30 PM ET/1:30PM PT
- Venue: U.S. Bank Stadium
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Conclusion
We predict the Lions, with a 77% win probability, will likely beat the Vikings in Week 17 of the NFL season.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Lions vs. Vikings insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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