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Lions vs. Bears prediction: Why Chicago is favored to win in NFL Week 18 [2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears predictions for NFL Sunday.
The Chicago Bears will take on the Detroit Lions in NFL Week 18 action at Soldier Field on Sunday, starting at 4:25 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven NFL model predicts the Bears as the most likely winner of the Lions vs. Bears game.
This article offers a closer look at Sunday's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Lions vs. Bears prediction: Who will win and cover?
Since our Lions-Bears predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the result of Sunday's NFL game between the Lions and Bears 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Bears a 64% chance of beating the Lions in Week 18 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Bears winning 27-23.
According to our model, the Bears (-3.5) have a 54% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 51.5 points has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 18 straight up picks.
Lions vs. Bears odds
We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Lions | Bears |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +3.5 (-118) | -3.5 (-104) |
| Moneyline | +148 | -170 |
| Total | o51.5 (-106) | u51.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Lions vs. Bears picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Bears -3.5 | -104 |
| Moneyline | Bears | -170 |
| Total | Over 51.5 | -106 |
According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Bears -3.5 at the spread.
Lions vs. Bears TD scorers
Who will score a touchdown in Lions vs. Bears?
According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for today, Jahmyr Gibbs is most likely to score an anytime TD in Lions vs. Bears.
Our projections give Gibbs a 60.2% chance of getting in for six at Soldier Field, while the running back is a 13.0% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions
Detroit Lions
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs (RB) | 60.2% |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR) | 43.8% |
| Jameson Williams (WR) | 37.8% |
| David Montgomery (RB) | 36.7% |
| Isaac TeSlaa (WR) | 24.7% |
Chicago Bears
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift (RB) | 45.3% |
| Kyle Monangai (RB) | 39.7% |
| DJ Moore (WR) | 32.3% |
| Luther Burden (WR) | 31.4% |
| Colston Loveland (TE) | 30.4% |
First touchdown scorer predictions
Detroit Lions
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs (RB) | 13.0% |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR) | 8.2% |
| Jameson Williams (WR) | 6.7% |
| David Montgomery (RB) | 6.5% |
| Isaac TeSlaa (WR) | 4.0% |
Chicago Bears
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift (RB) | 9.4% |
| Kyle Monangai (RB) | 7.9% |
| DJ Moore (WR) | 6.1% |
| Luther Burden (WR) | 5.9% |
| Colston Loveland (TE) | 5.7% |
Lions vs Bears player props
Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Lions and Bears. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 18 games.
Quarterbacks
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Lions' Jared Goff is projected for 253 passing yards. The Bears' Caleb Williams is expected to throw for 236 yards.
| Player | Proj. Pass Yards |
|---|---|
| Jared Goff (DET) | 253 |
| Caleb Williams (CHI) | 236 |
Lions rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 66 |
| David Montgomery | 40 |
| Jameson Williams | 5 |
Bears rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 63 |
| Kyle Monangai | 46 |
| Caleb Williams | 21 |
Lions receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 73 |
| Jameson Williams | 65 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 33 |
| Isaac TeSlaa | 32 |
| Kalif Raymond | 13 |
Bears receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Luther Burden | 61 |
| Colston Loveland | 46 |
| DJ Moore | 42 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 32 |
| Cole Kmet | 23 |
Lions vs. Bears game-day updates and essential details
The NFL Week 18 game between the Bears and Lions at Soldier Field is scheduled to commence at 4:25 PM ET.
- Who: Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears
- Date: Sunday, January 4, 2026
- Time: 4:25 PM ET/1:25PM PT
- Venue: Soldier Field
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Conclusion
We predict the Bears, with a 64% win probability, will likely beat the Lions in Week 18 of the NFL season.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Lions vs. Bears insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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