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Nuggets vs. Thunder prediction: Oklahoma City favored to win Monday's NBA matchup [3/9/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder predictions for NBA Monday.
The Oklahoma City Thunder will take on the Denver Nuggets in NBA action at Paycom Center on Monday, commencing at 7:30 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulations and today’s injury reports, Dimers' proven NBA model predicts the Thunder as the most likely winner of the Nuggets vs. Thunder game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Thunder lineup will feature stars like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Joe, while the Nuggets will be led by Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Monday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Nuggets vs. Thunder prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Monday's NBA matchup between the Nuggets and Thunder 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Thunder a 70% chance of beating the Nuggets. Our predicted final score has the Thunder winning 118-113.
According to our model, the Nuggets (+6) have a 52% chance of covering the spread, while the 232.5-point over/under has a 51% chance of staying under.
Nuggets vs. Thunder odds
We have sourced the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Nuggets | Thunder |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +6 (-108) | -6 (-112) |
| Moneyline | +220 | -255 |
| Total | o232.5 (-105) | u232.5 (-108) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Nuggets vs. Thunder picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Nuggets +6 | -108 |
| Moneyline | Nuggets | +220 |
| Total | Under 232.5 | -108 |
According to our best NBA bets for Monday, the top play to make on this game is Nuggets +6 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Nuggets vs. Thunder player props
Betting on Nuggets vs. Thunder NBA player props? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Paycom Center.
Nikola Jokic is expected to lead the Nuggets with 27 points, 13 rebounds and 10 assists, while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is projected to have 32 points, 4 rebounds and 7 assists for the Thunder.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Nuggets prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Nuggets are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic | 27 | 13 | 10 | 2 | 66 |
| Jamal Murray | 24 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 45 |
| Aaron Gordon | 13 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 25 |
| Tim Hardaway | 13 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 21 |
| Christian Braun | 11 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 26 |
Thunder prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Thunder:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Gilgeous-Alexander | 32 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 54 |
| Chet Holmgren | 18 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 40 |
| Isaiah Joe | 12 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 22 |
| Ajay Mitchell | 11 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 23 |
| Aaron Wiggins | 10 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 22 |
Nuggets vs. Thunder game-day updates and essential details
Monday's action between the Thunder and Nuggets at Paycom Center is scheduled to begin at 7:30 PM ET.
- Who: Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
- Date: Monday, March 9, 2026
- Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30PM PT
- Venue: Paycom Center
Conclusion
We predict the Thunder, with a 70% win probability, will likely beat the Nuggets on Monday, with Nikola Jokic projected for a game-high 66 fantasy points.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Nuggets vs. Thunder insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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