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Nuggets vs. Thunder Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Nuggets vs. Thunder NBA game on March 9, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NBA
FINAL
NBA
126
129
Mar 9, 11:30PM Paycom Center
Mar 9, 11:30PM Paycom Center
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Best Bets | TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nuggets | 40 | 20 | 33 | 33 | 126 |
Thunder | 37 | 29 | 30 | 33 | 129 |
Live Probabilities
Spread
Over / Under
Moneyline
Win %
2%
98%
Win Probability
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nuggets | 40 | 20 | 33 | 33 | 126 |
Thunder | 37 | 29 | 30 | 33 | 129 |
Q4 00:00 Nuggets misses three point jump shot
Q4 00:03 Thunder makes three point jump shot
Q4 00:08 Nuggets makes three point jump shot
Q4 00:13 Thunder makes three point jump shot
Q4 00:31 Nuggets makes two point jump shot
Q4 00:47 Thunder misses three point jump shot
Q4 1:05 Nuggets makes three point jump shot
Q4 1:22 Thunder makes two point jump shot
Q4 1:39 Nuggets makes three point jump shot
Q4 1:49 Nuggets misses three point jump shot
Play by Play
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
ALL
Nuggets misses three point jump shot
Nuggets offensive rebound
End of 4th Quarter.
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
126-129
+3
Nuggets makes three point jump shot
125-126
Thunder personal foul
Jaylin Williams turnover
Instant replay
Thunder lineup change (Jaylin Williams, Luguentz Dort, Ajay Mitchell, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Kenrich Williams)
Nuggets lineup change (Nikola Jokic, Aaron Gordon, Tim Hardaway Jr., Christian Braun, Jamal Murray)
+1
Jamal Murray makes regular free throw 1 of 1
126-126
Thunder 60 second timeout
Thunder lineup change (Jaylin Williams, Isaiah Joe, Ajay Mitchell, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jared McCain)
Nuggets lineup change (Bruce Brown, Aaron Gordon, Tim Hardaway Jr., Christian Braun, Spencer Jones)
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
122-126
Nuggets 60 second timeout
Nuggets lineup change (Nikola Jokic, Aaron Gordon, Tim Hardaway Jr., Jamal Murray, Cameron Johnson)
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
122-123
Jamal Murray defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
+3
Nuggets makes three point jump shot
120-123
Thunder personal foul
Instant replay
+1
Nikola Jokic makes regular free throw 1 of 2
117-123
Nikola Jokic misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Nuggets offensive rebound
Thunder lineup change (Jaylin Williams, Luguentz Dort, Isaiah Joe, Ajay Mitchell, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
116-123
+3
Nuggets makes three point jump shot
116-121
Aaron Gordon offensive rebound
Thunder personal foul
Thunder lineup change (Jaylin Williams, Luguentz Dort, Ajay Mitchell, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jared McCain)
Nuggets misses three point jump shot
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
113-121
Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
Nikola Jokic defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
113-118
Nuggets personal foul
Nuggets 60 second timeout
Instant replay
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 2
111-117
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 2 of 2
111-118
Isaiah Joe defensive rebound
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
111-116
Thunder personal foul
+1
Jamal Murray makes regular free throw 1 of 2
110-114
+1
Jamal Murray makes regular free throw 2 of 2
111-114
Thunder lineup change (Jaylin Williams, Luguentz Dort, Isaiah Joe, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jared McCain)
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
109-114
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
Nikola Jokic defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
Nuggets misses three point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
109-111
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
109-109
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
107-109
Nuggets 60 second timeout
Nuggets lineup change (Nikola Jokic, Aaron Gordon, Tim Hardaway Jr., Christian Braun, Jamal Murray)
Nuggets turnover
Nikola Jokic defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
107-107
Spencer Jones offensive rebound
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
105-107
Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
Nuggets misses three point jump shot
Spencer Jones offensive rebound
Thunder personal foul
+1
Cameron Johnson makes regular free throw 1 of 2
105-104
Cameron Johnson misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Nikola Jokic offensive rebound
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
Christian Braun defensive rebound
Tim Hardaway Jr. personal foul
+1
Jaylin Williams makes regular free throw 1 of 3
104-103
+1
Jaylin Williams makes regular free throw 2 of 3
104-104
Jaylin Williams misses regular free throw 3 of 3
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Thunder offensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Thunder lineup change (Jaylin Williams, Isaiah Joe, Ajay Mitchell, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jared McCain)
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
104-102
Christian Braun offensive rebound
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
Nuggets defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Nuggets lineup change (Nikola Jokic, Tim Hardaway Jr., Christian Braun, Cameron Johnson, Spencer Jones)
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Isaiah Joe defensive rebound
Nuggets misses three point jump shot
Nuggets personal foul
+1
Ajay Mitchell makes regular free throw 1 of 2
102-101
+1
Ajay Mitchell makes regular free throw 2 of 2
102-102
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound
Nuggets misses three point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
102-100
Thunder turnover
Thunder 60 second timeout
Instant replay
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Nuggets personal foul
Thunder lineup change (Luguentz Dort, Isaiah Joe, Ajay Mitchell, Kenrich Williams, Aaron Wiggins)
Thunder lineup change (Luguentz Dort, Isaiah Joe, Ajay Mitchell, Kenrich Williams, Aaron Wiggins)
Nuggets lineup change (Bruce Brown, Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Cameron Johnson, Spencer Jones)
Thunder lineup change (Jaylin Williams, Luguentz Dort, Isaiah Joe, Ajay Mitchell, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
+3
Nuggets makes three point jump shot
102-98
Spencer Jones offensive rebound
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
Bruce Brown defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
99-98
Bruce Brown offensive rebound
Nuggets misses three point jump shot
Cameron Johnson defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Thunder personal foul
Bruce Brown misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Nuggets offensive rebound
+1
Bruce Brown makes regular free throw 2 of 2
97-98
Nuggets 60 second timeout
Thunder lineup change (Cason Wallace, Luguentz Dort, Isaiah Joe, Ajay Mitchell, Kenrich Williams)
Nuggets lineup change (Bruce Brown, Aaron Gordon, Jamal Murray, Cameron Johnson, Spencer Jones)
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
96-98
Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
Nikola Jokic defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Ajay Mitchell defensive rebound
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Thunder lineup change (Cason Wallace, Jaylin Williams, Luguentz Dort, Isaiah Joe, Ajay Mitchell)
Aaron Gordon defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
+3
Nuggets makes three point jump shot
96-96
Thunder offensive rebound
End of 3rd Quarter.
Thunder lineup change (Cason Wallace, Luguentz Dort, Isaiah Joe, Ajay Mitchell, Kenrich Williams)
Nuggets lineup change (Bruce Brown, Nikola Jokic, Aaron Gordon, Jamal Murray, Cameron Johnson)
Thunder misses three point jump shot
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
93-96
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
91-95
Nuggets personal foul
Nuggets lineup change (Bruce Brown, Nikola Jokic, Tim Hardaway Jr., Christian Braun, Jamal Murray)
Thunder lineup change (Jaylin Williams, Luguentz Dort, Ajay Mitchell, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jared McCain)
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 1
91-96
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
91-93
Bruce Brown defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
89-93
Nuggets personal foul
+1
Ajay Mitchell makes regular free throw 1 of 2
87-92
+1
Ajay Mitchell makes regular free throw 2 of 2
87-93
Nuggets turnover
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
87-91
Jared McCain defensive rebound
Nuggets misses three point jump shot
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
87-88
+3
Nuggets makes three point jump shot
87-85
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
84-85
Thunder 60 second timeout
Thunder lineup change (Jaylin Williams, Ajay Mitchell, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jared McCain, Aaron Wiggins)
Nuggets lineup change (Bruce Brown, Nikola Jokic, Tim Hardaway Jr., Christian Braun, Spencer Jones)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound
Nuggets misses three point jump shot
Nikola Jokic defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
84-83
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
82-83
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
82-81
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
80-81
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
80-78
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
78-78
Stoppage (Equipment malfunction)
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
78-76
Thunder personal foul
Thunder lineup change (Cason Wallace, Jaylin Williams, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jared McCain, Aaron Wiggins)
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
76-76
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
76-74
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
74-74
Nuggets personal foul
Thunder lineup change (Cason Wallace, Jaylin Williams, Isaiah Joe, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Aaron Wiggins)
Spencer Jones offensive rebound
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
74-72
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
Thunder turnover
+3
Nuggets makes three point jump shot
72-72
Christian Braun offensive rebound
Nuggets misses three point jump shot
Nikola Jokic defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Thunder personal foul
+1
Nikola Jokic makes regular free throw 1 of 2
68-72
Thunder 60 second timeout
+1
Nikola Jokic makes regular free throw 2 of 2
69-72
Nuggets lineup change (Nikola Jokic, Tim Hardaway Jr., Christian Braun, Jamal Murray, Spencer Jones)
Aaron Gordon defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Nuggets turnover
Aaron Gordon defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
Nuggets misses three point jump shot
Jamal Murray defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Isaiah Joe defensive rebound
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
Tim Hardaway Jr. defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Cason Wallace defensive rebound
Nuggets misses three point jump shot
Aaron Gordon offensive rebound
Jamal Murray offensive rebound
Nuggets misses three point jump shot
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
Thunder turnover
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
67-72
Christian Braun defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
+3
Nuggets makes three point jump shot
65-72
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
62-72
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
Thunder defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Christian Braun defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Nuggets personal foul
Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
Aaron Gordon offensive rebound
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
Aaron Gordon misses two point tip layup
Aaron Gordon offensive rebound
Thunder personal foul
Nuggets lineup change (Nikola Jokic, Aaron Gordon, Tim Hardaway Jr., Christian Braun, Jamal Murray)
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
62-69
Cason Wallace offensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Aaron Gordon offensive rebound
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
62-66
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
Jamal Murray defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
60-66
Instant replay
End of 1st Half.
Nuggets lineup change (Nikola Jokic, Aaron Gordon, Christian Braun, Jamal Murray, Cameron Johnson)
Thunder lineup change (Cason Wallace, Jaylin Williams, Luguentz Dort, Isaiah Joe, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
Christian Braun defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Thunder personal foul
+1
Nikola Jokic makes regular free throw 1 of 2
59-63
+1
Nikola Jokic makes regular free throw 2 of 2
60-63
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
58-63
Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
Nikola Jokic defensive rebound
Nuggets personal foul
Nuggets violation
Thunder violation
+1
Aaron Wiggins makes regular free throw 1 of 2
58-61
Aaron Wiggins misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Thunder lineup change (Jaylin Williams, Isaiah Joe, Ajay Mitchell, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Aaron Wiggins)
Thunder personal foul
+1
Aaron Gordon makes regular free throw 1 of 2
57-60
+1
Aaron Gordon makes regular free throw 2 of 2
58-60
Nikola Jokic defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
+3
Nuggets makes three point jump shot
56-60
Nikola Jokic defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Thunder personal foul
+1
Cameron Johnson makes regular free throw 1 of 2
52-60
+1
Cameron Johnson makes regular free throw 2 of 2
53-60
Nuggets lineup change (Nikola Jokic, Aaron Gordon, Tim Hardaway Jr., Christian Braun, Cameron Johnson)
Cameron Johnson defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
+3
Nuggets makes three point jump shot
51-60
Spencer Jones offensive rebound
Nuggets misses three point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
48-60
Nuggets 60 second timeout
Thunder lineup change (Jaylin Williams, Ajay Mitchell, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jared McCain, Aaron Wiggins)
Nuggets lineup change (Nikola Jokic, Tim Hardaway Jr., Christian Braun, Cameron Johnson, Spencer Jones)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound
Nuggets misses three point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
48-58
Nuggets personal foul
Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
Thunder personal foul
Christian Braun misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Nuggets offensive rebound
Christian Braun misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Thunder lineup change (Jaylin Williams, Luguentz Dort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jared McCain, Aaron Wiggins)
Thunder turnover
Nuggets personal foul
Christian Braun turnover (offensive foul)
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Nuggets defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
48-56
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
46-56
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound
Nuggets misses three point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
46-53
Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
Nuggets misses three point jump shot
Christian Braun defensive rebound
Nuggets personal foul
Luguentz Dort misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Thunder offensive rebound
Nuggets 60 second timeout
Nuggets lineup change (Nikola Jokic, Christian Braun, Jamal Murray, Cameron Johnson, Spencer Jones)
Thunder lineup change (Jaylin Williams, Luguentz Dort, Isaiah Joe, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Aaron Wiggins)
Luguentz Dort misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Luguentz Dort defensive rebound
Nuggets misses three point jump shot
Jonas Valanciunas defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Aaron Wiggins defensive rebound
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
Jonas Valanciunas defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Luguentz Dort defensive rebound
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
46-50
Nuggets personal foul
+1
Ajay Mitchell makes regular free throw 1 of 1
46-51
Nuggets offensive rebound
Nuggets misses three point jump shot
Nuggets turnover
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
Nuggets offensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Nuggets misses three point jump shot
Nuggets offensive rebound
Thunder personal foul
Nuggets defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Luguentz Dort defensive rebound
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
Nuggets defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Thunder 60 second timeout
Instant replay
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Nuggets personal foul
Tim Hardaway Jr. turnover (offensive foul)
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
46-48
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
46-45
Thunder personal foul
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
44-45
Aaron Wiggins defensive rebound
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
44-43
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
44-40
Nuggets turnover
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Jamal Murray defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Luguentz Dort defensive rebound
Thunder personal foul
Tim Hardaway Jr. misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Nuggets offensive rebound
Tim Hardaway Jr. misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Jamal Murray defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
42-40
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
40-40
Nuggets personal foul
Ajay Mitchell offensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Thunder offensive rebound
End of 1st Quarter.
Nuggets lineup change (Bruce Brown, Aaron Gordon, Tim Hardaway Jr., Jonas Valanciunas, Jamal Murray)
Thunder lineup change (Luguentz Dort, Isaiah Joe, Ajay Mitchell, Kenrich Williams, Aaron Wiggins)
Thunder misses three point jump shot
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
40-37
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
38-37
+3
Nuggets makes three point jump shot
38-35
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
35-35
+3
Nuggets makes three point jump shot
35-33
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
32-33
Kenrich Williams defensive rebound
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
32-30
Nuggets personal foul
Bruce Brown turnover (offensive foul)
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
32-28
Nuggets 60 second timeout
Ajay Mitchell defensive rebound
Nuggets misses three point jump shot
Tim Hardaway Jr. defensive rebound
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
32-26
Nuggets personal foul
Jaylin Williams misses regular free throw 1 of 1
Jump ball. (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander gains possession)
+3
Nuggets makes three point jump shot
32-23
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Thunder offensive rebound
Nuggets personal foul
+1
Kenrich Williams makes regular free throw 1 of 2
29-22
Nuggets lineup change (Bruce Brown, Julian Strawther, Nikola Jokic, Tim Hardaway Jr., Christian Braun)
+1
Kenrich Williams makes regular free throw 2 of 2
29-23
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander offensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
29-21
Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
Nuggets misses three point jump shot
Nikola Jokic defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
29-19
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
Thunder defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Nikola Jokic defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
29-17
Thunder 60 second timeout
Nuggets lineup change (Nikola Jokic, Tim Hardaway Jr., Christian Braun, Jamal Murray, Cameron Johnson)
Thunder lineup change (Jaylin Williams, Ajay Mitchell, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jared McCain, Kenrich Williams)
Christian Braun defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
27-17
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
25-17
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
25-15
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
23-15
Nuggets turnover
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
23-13
Thunder personal foul
+1
Aaron Gordon makes regular free throw 1 of 2
22-10
+1
Aaron Gordon makes regular free throw 2 of 2
23-10
Nuggets personal foul
+1
Jared McCain makes regular free throw 1 of 2
21-9
+1
Jared McCain makes regular free throw 2 of 2
21-10
Thunder personal foul
+1
Aaron Gordon makes regular free throw 1 of 2
20-8
Thunder lineup change (Jaylin Williams, Luguentz Dort, Ajay Mitchell, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jared McCain)
+1
Aaron Gordon makes regular free throw 2 of 2
21-8
Nikola Jokic defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
19-8
Nikola Jokic defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
+3
Nuggets makes three point jump shot
17-8
Nuggets 60 second timeout
Aaron Gordon defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
14-8
Aaron Gordon defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
+3
Nuggets makes three point jump shot
12-8
Cameron Johnson offensive rebound
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
Aaron Gordon defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Isaiah Joe defensive rebound
Nuggets misses three point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
9-7
Nuggets personal foul
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 1
9-8
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
8-5
Thunder personal foul
+1
Aaron Gordon makes regular free throw 1 of 1
9-5
Jamal Murray defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Thunder personal foul
Aaron Gordon misses regular free throw 1 of 3
Nuggets offensive rebound
+1
Aaron Gordon makes regular free throw 2 of 3
5-5
+1
Aaron Gordon makes regular free throw 3 of 3
6-5
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
4-5
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
Aaron Gordon offensive rebound
Nuggets misses three point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
4-2
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
4-0
Christian Braun defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
2-0
Nikola Jokic vs. Jaylin Williams (Aaron Gordon gains possession)
Start of 1st Quarter
Thunder lineup change (Cason Wallace, Jaylin Williams, Luguentz Dort, Isaiah Joe, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
Box Score
Player Stats
Team Stats
| Pos | Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G-F | 10 | T. Hardaway Jr. | 28 | 2 | 2 |
| F | 32 | A. Gordon | 23 | 10 | 3 |
| G-F | 11 | B. Brown | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| F | 21 | S. Jones | 6 | 5 | 0 |
| G | 0 | C. Braun | 4 | 9 | 2 |
| Pos | Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 25 | A. Mitchell | 24 | 2 | 3 |
| G | 11 | I. Joe | 13 | 4 | 2 |
| C | 6 | J. Williams | 29 | 12 | 3 |
| G | 2 | S. Gilgeous-Alexander | 35 | 9 | 15 |
| G | 3 | J. McCain | 13 | 1 | 1 |
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Nuggets vs. Thunder: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Nuggets vs. Thunder
- Date: Monday, March 9, 2026
- Time: 7:30 PM ET
- Venue: Paycom Center
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Thunder favored at -3.5
- Total (Over/Under): 237.5
- Moneyline Odds: Nuggets +143, Thunder -149
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Nuggets: 37%
- Thunder: 63%
Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Projected Final Score
Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Nuggets 116-120 Thunder.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Nuggets a win probability of 37%, while the Thunder have a win probability of 63%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Thunder are more likely to beat the Nuggets in the NBA game at Paycom Center on Monday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Nuggets vs. Thunder predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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For further insights, explore our expert NBA predictions and the best NBA bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NBA props, NBA futures, NBA odds, and the latest NBA news.
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