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Nuggets vs. Mavericks prediction: Dallas favored to win Wednesday's NBA matchup [1/14/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Denver Nuggets vs Dallas Mavericks predictions for NBA Wednesday.
NBA action continues on Wednesday at 9:30 PM ET as the Denver Nuggets square off with the Dallas Mavericks at American Airlines Center.
Based on the latest simulation results and today’s injury reports, Dimers' advanced NBA model predicts the Mavericks as the most likely winner of the Nuggets vs. Mavericks game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Mavericks lineup will feature stars like Cooper Flagg, Naji Marshall and P.J. Washington, while the Nuggets will look to Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon and Peyton Watson.
This article offers a closer look at Wednesday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Nuggets vs. Mavs prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Wednesday's NBA matchup between the Nuggets and Mavericks 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Mavericks a 58% chance of beating the Nuggets. Our predicted final score has the Mavericks winning 112-110.
According to our model, the Mavericks (-2.5) have a 54% chance of covering the spread, while the 219.5-point over/under has a 54% chance of going over.
Nuggets vs. Mavericks odds
We have sourced the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Nuggets | Mavericks |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +2.5 (-120) | -2.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | +116 | -120 |
| Total | o219.5 (-110) | u219.5 (-118) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Nuggets vs. Mavericks picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Mavericks -2.5 | -110 |
| Moneyline | Mavericks | -120 |
| Total | Over 219.5 | -110 |
According to our best NBA bets for Wednesday, the top play to make on this game is Mavericks to win.
Nuggets vs. Mavericks player props
NBA prop bets are an exciting way to wager on the Nuggets vs. Mavericks matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at American Airlines Center.
Jamal Murray is expected to lead the Nuggets with 26 points, 5 rebounds and 8 assists, while Cooper Flagg is projected to have 22 points, 6 rebounds and 5 assists for the Mavericks.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Nuggets prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Nuggets are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray | 26 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 51 |
| Aaron Gordon | 18 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 34 |
| Peyton Watson | 18 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 37 |
| Tim Hardaway | 13 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 22 |
| Jalen Pickett | 9 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 24 |
Mavericks prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Mavericks:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Flagg | 22 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 44 |
| Naji Marshall | 17 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 33 |
| P.J. Washington | 16 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 37 |
| B. Williams | 13 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 26 |
| Klay Thompson | 12 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 21 |
Nuggets vs. Mavs game-day updates and essential details
Wednesday's matchup between the Mavericks and Nuggets at American Airlines Center is scheduled to begin at 9:30 PM ET.
- Who: Denver Nuggets vs. Dallas Mavericks
- Date: Wednesday, January 14, 2026
- Time: 9:30 PM ET/6:30PM PT
- Venue: American Airlines Center
Conclusion
We predict the Mavericks, with a 58% win probability, will likely beat the Nuggets on Wednesday, with Jamal Murray projected for a game-high 51 fantasy points.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Nuggets vs. Mavericks insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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