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Nuggets vs. Mavericks Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Nuggets vs. Mavericks NBA game on January 14, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
FINAL
NBA
FINAL
NBA
118
109
Jan 15, 2:30AM American Airlines Center
Jan 15, 2:30AM American Airlines Center
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Best Bets | TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nuggets | 29 | 34 | 25 | 30 | 118 |
Mavericks | 23 | 23 | 32 | 31 | 109 |
Live Probabilities
Spread
Over / Under
Moneyline
Win %
>99%
<1%
Win Probability
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nuggets | 29 | 34 | 25 | 30 | 118 |
Mavericks | 23 | 23 | 32 | 31 | 109 |
Q4 1:17 Nuggets misses two point jump shot
Q4 2:47 Nuggets misses three point jump shot
Q4 3:12 Mavericks misses three point jump shot
Q4 4:21 Mavericks makes two point jump shot
Q4 5:04 Nuggets misses two point jump shot
Q4 5:36 Nuggets makes two point jump shot
Q4 5:52 Mavericks makes two point jump shot
Q4 6:23 Mavericks makes three point jump shot
Q4 6:40 Nuggets makes two point jump shot
Q4 6:48 Mavericks misses two point jump shot
Play by Play
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
ALL
Peyton Watson defensive rebound
Mavericks personal foul
+1
Peyton Watson makes regular free throw 2 of 2
118-109
Nuggets offensive rebound
+1
Aaron Gordon makes regular free throw 2 of 2
116-107
Jump ball. (P.J. Washington gains possession)
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
Mavericks personal foul
Nuggets personal foul
Brandon Williams defensive rebound
+1
P.J. Washington makes regular free throw 1 of 2
113-102
Nuggets turnover
Caleb Martin defensive rebound
Nuggets misses three point jump shot
Aaron Gordon defensive rebound
Mavericks misses three point jump shot
Mavericks turnover
Mavericks personal foul
+1
Aaron Gordon makes regular free throw 1 of 2
110-98
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
109-98
Mavericks offensive rebound
Nuggets personal foul
Nuggets lineup change (Tim Hardaway Jr., Jamal Murray, Peyton Watson, Spencer Jones, Aaron Gordon)
Mavericks personal foul
Bruce Brown misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Nuggets offensive rebound
+1
Bruce Brown makes regular free throw 2 of 2
109-96
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
Nuggets personal foul
+1
Brandon Williams makes regular free throw 2 of 2
108-94
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
108-93
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
106-93
Nuggets 60 second timeout
Nuggets lineup change (Jamal Murray, Spencer Jones, Aaron Gordon, Jalen Pickett, Bruce Brown)
+3
Mavericks makes three point jump shot
106-91
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
106-88
Mavericks misses two point jump shot
+3
Nuggets makes three point jump shot
104-88
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
101-88
Naji Marshall defensive rebound
Nuggets offensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Nuggets personal foul
+1
P.J. Washington makes regular free throw 1 of 2
101-86
Nuggets lineup change (Tim Hardaway Jr., Jamal Murray, Spencer Jones, Aaron Gordon, Bruce Brown)
Mavericks lineup change (Jaden Hardy, Caleb Martin, Brandon Williams, P.J. Washington, Naji Marshall)
P.J. Washington misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Brandon Williams defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Peyton Watson defensive rebound
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
98-85
Nuggets defensive rebound
Mavericks lineup change (Klay Thompson, Ryan Nembhard, Jaden Hardy, P.J. Washington, Naji Marshall)
Tim Hardaway Jr. defensive rebound
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
93-85
Mavericks misses three point jump shot
Jaden Hardy offensive rebound
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
91-85
+3
Nuggets makes three point jump shot
91-83
Nuggets defensive rebound
Mavericks misses two point jump shot
Caleb Martin defensive rebound
Nuggets misses three point jump shot
Mavericks misses three point jump shot
End of 3rd Quarter.
Mavericks lineup change (Klay Thompson, Ryan Nembhard, Jaden Hardy, Caleb Martin, P.J. Washington)
Dwight Powell defensive rebound
Bruce Brown turnover (offensive foul)
Naji Marshall defensive rebound
Nuggets misses three point jump shot
+2
Naji Marshall makes two point jump shot
88-75
Nuggets personal foul
+1
Naji Marshall makes regular free throw 1 of 1
88-76
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
86-73
Caleb Martin defensive rebound
Mavericks misses two point jump shot
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
86-69
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
Brandon Williams misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Mavericks offensive rebound
Nuggets misses three point jump shot
Mavericks personal foul
Nuggets turnover
+1
Brandon Williams makes regular free throw 2 of 2
84-64
Nuggets personal foul
Mavericks lineup change (Dwight Powell, Klay Thompson, Caleb Martin, Brandon Williams, Naji Marshall)
Jalen Pickett defensive rebound
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
Nuggets personal foul
Stoppage (Injury)
+1
Daniel Gafford makes regular free throw 2 of 2
84-62
Spencer Jones defensive rebound
Nuggets personal foul
Mavericks lineup change (Klay Thompson, Caleb Martin, Brandon Williams, Daniel Gafford, Naji Marshall)
Mavericks offensive rebound
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
81-61
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Mavericks misses three point jump shot
Mavericks offensive rebound
Mavericks lineup change (Dwight Powell, Klay Thompson, Caleb Martin, Brandon Williams, Naji Marshall)
Mavericks offensive rebound
+3
Nuggets makes three point jump shot
79-59
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
76-59
+2
Aaron Gordon makes two point jump shot
76-57
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
74-57
Aaron Gordon offensive rebound
Mavericks turnover
Nuggets defensive rebound
Mavericks misses two point jump shot
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
69-54
+1
Jaden Hardy makes regular free throw 1 of 1
69-55
Mavericks lineup change (Dwight Powell, Ryan Nembhard, Jaden Hardy, P.J. Washington, Naji Marshall)
Mavericks misses three point jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Naji Marshall offensive rebound
Mavericks misses three point jump shot
Nuggets defensive rebound
Mavericks personal foul
+1
Jamal Murray makes regular free throw 2 of 2
67-50
Mavericks misses two point jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
+1
Spencer Jones makes regular free throw 2 of 2
65-50
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
63-50
Daniel Gafford defensive rebound
Jalen Pickett offensive rebound
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
Nuggets personal foul
+1
Naji Marshall makes regular free throw 2 of 2
63-48
Nuggets misses three point jump shot
Mavericks misses three point jump shot
End of 1st Half.
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
61-46
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
61-44
+1
Naji Marshall makes regular free throw 1 of 2
56-41
Nuggets lineup change (Tim Hardaway Jr., Jamal Murray, Spencer Jones, Aaron Gordon, Jalen Pickett)
Klay Thompson defensive rebound
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
56-40
Nuggets misses three point jump shot
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
56-38
Mavericks 60 second timeout
Mavericks lineup change (Klay Thompson, Cooper Flagg, Caleb Martin, Daniel Gafford, Naji Marshall)
Aaron Gordon misses regular free throw 1 of 1
Nuggets turnover
Peyton Watson defensive rebound
Mavericks misses two point jump shot
Daniel Gafford offensive rebound
Brandon Williams defensive rebound
+1
Peyton Watson makes regular free throw 1 of 2
54-36
Aaron Gordon defensive rebound
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
53-36
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
51-35
+1
Dwight Powell makes regular free throw 1 of 1
51-36
Mavericks personal foul
Bruce Brown offensive rebound
Nuggets misses three point jump shot
Aaron Gordon defensive rebound
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
48-33
P.J. Washington defensive rebound
Nuggets misses three point jump shot
Nuggets lineup change (Tim Hardaway Jr., Jamal Murray, Peyton Watson, Aaron Gordon, Bruce Brown)
Nuggets personal foul
Nuggets misses three point jump shot
Mavericks misses three point jump shot
Mavericks turnover
Bruce Brown defensive rebound
Nuggets lineup change (Tim Hardaway Jr., Peyton Watson, Aaron Gordon, Jalen Pickett, Bruce Brown)
Dwight Powell offensive rebound
DaRon Holmes II defensive rebound
Mavericks misses three point jump shot
Mavericks misses two point jump shot
Miles Kelly offensive rebound
Zeke Nnaji offensive rebound
Mavericks lineup change (Dwight Powell, Klay Thompson, Miles Kelly, Cooper Flagg, Brandon Williams)
+1
Zeke Nnaji makes regular free throw 2 of 2
40-28
Nuggets personal foul
Mavericks offensive rebound
+1
Daniel Gafford makes regular free throw 2 of 2
38-28
Mavericks misses two point jump shot
Ryan Nembhard defensive rebound
Nuggets misses three point jump shot
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
38-27
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Nuggets misses three point jump shot
DaRon Holmes II defensive rebound
Mavericks defensive rebound
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
38-25
+3
Nuggets makes three point jump shot
38-23
Mavericks misses three point jump shot
+3
Nuggets makes three point jump shot
35-23
Nuggets violation
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
31-23
+1
Jalen Pickett makes regular free throw 1 of 1
32-23
Nuggets offensive rebound
Nuggets lineup change (Tim Hardaway Jr., Zeke Nnaji, Jalen Pickett, Bruce Brown, DaRon Holmes II)
Zeke Nnaji defensive rebound
Mavericks personal foul
Nuggets lineup change (Tim Hardaway Jr., Jamal Murray, Zeke Nnaji, Jalen Pickett, Bruce Brown)
Zeke Nnaji defensive rebound
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
27-23
+2
Caleb Martin makes two point jump shot (Ryan Nembhard assists)
25-23
Zeke Nnaji defensive rebound
Ryan Nembhard misses two point stepback jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
+3
Klay Thompson makes three point jump shot (Caleb Martin assists)
25-21
Nuggets lineup change (Tim Hardaway Jr., Jamal Murray, Peyton Watson, Zeke Nnaji, Bruce Brown)
+2
Peyton Watson makes two point turnaround fadeaway jump shot
25-18
+3
Spencer Jones makes three point jump shot (Jamal Murray assists)
23-18
Stoppage (Equipment malfunction)
+2
Naji Marshall makes two point turnaround jump shot (Klay Thompson assists)
20-18
+2
Zeke Nnaji makes two point cutting layup
20-16
Mavericks offensive rebound
+1
Brandon Williams makes regular free throw 2 of 2
15-14
Jamal Murray shooting foul (Brandon Williams draws the foul)
+2
Aaron Gordon makes two point pullup jump shot
15-13
+3
Aaron Gordon makes three point jump shot (Spencer Jones assists)
13-13
Spencer Jones offensive rebound
Cooper Flagg misses three point pullup jump shot
Mavericks defensive rebound
+3
Klay Thompson makes three point jump shot (Cooper Flagg assists)
10-13
Cooper Flagg shooting foul (Jamal Murray draws the foul)
Spencer Jones defensive rebound
Tim Hardaway Jr. shooting foul (Brandon Williams draws the foul)
Brandon Williams misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Peyton Watson offensive foul (Charge) (Jaden Hardy draws the foul)
+2
Cooper Flagg makes two point driving layup
7-9
Mavericks lineup change (Dwight Powell, Jaden Hardy, Cooper Flagg, Brandon Williams, Naji Marshall)
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
+2
Cooper Flagg makes two point running layup
7-7
Jaden Hardy defensive rebound
P.J. Washington misses two point driving floating jump shot
Daniel Gafford offensive rebound
Jamal Murray misses three point stepback jump shot
Jalen Pickett defensive rebound
Mavericks 60 second timeout
+1
Jamal Murray makes regular free throw 1 of 2
6-5
+2
Cooper Flagg makes two point floating jump shot (Naji Marshall assists)
5-5
+2
Jamal Murray makes two point running finger roll layup
5-3
Aaron Gordon misses three point jump shot
Mavericks offensive rebound
P.J. Washington misses regular free throw 1 of 2
+3
Peyton Watson makes three point jump shot (Spencer Jones assists)
3-2
Aaron Gordon misses two point jump shot
Spencer Jones defensive rebound
Jamal Murray misses two point stepback jump shot
Aaron Gordon defensive rebound
Aaron Gordon vs. Daniel Gafford (Naji Marshall gains possession)
Start of 1st Quarter
Box Score
Player Stats
Team Stats
| Pos | Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pos | Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Nuggets vs. Mavericks: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Nuggets vs. Mavericks
- Date: Wednesday, January 14, 2026
- Time: 9:30 PM ET
- Venue: American Airlines Center
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Mavericks favored at -2.5
- Total (Over/Under): 216.5
- Moneyline Odds: Nuggets +116, Mavericks -115
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Nuggets: 42%
- Mavericks: 58%
Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Projected Final Score
Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Nuggets 110-112 Mavericks.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Nuggets a win probability of 42%, while the Mavericks have a win probability of 58%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Mavericks are more likely to beat the Nuggets in the NBA game at American Airlines Center on Thursday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Nuggets vs. Mavericks predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
When you click or tap on a link on Dimers that goes to a third-party website that we have a commercial relationship with (such as a sportsbook), we may receive a referral fee.
For further insights, explore our expert NBA predictions and the best NBA bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NBA props, NBA futures, NBA odds, and the latest NBA news.
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