Nuggets vs. Mavericks Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Nuggets vs. Mavericks NBA game on January 14, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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NBA
Nuggets
118
109
American Airlines Center
Mavericks
American Airlines Center
TEAM1234T
Nuggets
29 34 25 30 118
Mavericks
23 23 32 31 109
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Nuggets
    >99%
  • Mavericks
    <1%
Win Probability
TEAM1234T
Nuggets
29 34 25 30 118
Mavericks
23 23 32 31 109
Q4 1:17 Nuggets misses two point jump shot
Q4 2:47 Nuggets misses three point jump shot
Q4 3:12 Mavericks misses three point jump shot
Q4 4:21 Mavericks makes two point jump shot
Q4 5:04 Nuggets misses two point jump shot
Q4 5:36 Nuggets makes two point jump shot
Q4 5:52 Mavericks makes two point jump shot
Q4 6:23 Mavericks makes three point jump shot
Q4 6:40 Nuggets makes two point jump shot
Q4 6:48 Mavericks misses two point jump shot
Play by Play
  1. Q4 00:16
    Peyton Watson defensive rebound
  2. Q4 00:25
    Mavericks personal foul
  3. Q4 00:25
    +1
    Peyton Watson makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    118-109
  4. Q4 00:33
    Nuggets offensive rebound
  5. Q4 00:33
    +1
    Aaron Gordon makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    116-107
  6. Q4 00:43
    Jump ball. (P.J. Washington gains possession)
  7. Q4 1:17
    Nuggets misses two point jump shot
  8. Q4 1:39
    Mavericks personal foul
  9. Q4 1:40
    Nuggets personal foul
  10. Q4 1:43
    Brandon Williams defensive rebound
  11. Q4 2:04
    +1
    P.J. Washington makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    113-102
  12. Q4 2:08
    Nuggets turnover
  13. Q4 2:44
    Caleb Martin defensive rebound
  14. Q4 2:47
    Nuggets misses three point jump shot
  15. Q4 3:07
    Aaron Gordon defensive rebound
  16. Q4 3:12
    Mavericks misses three point jump shot
  17. Q4 3:33
    Mavericks turnover
  18. Q4 4:04
    Mavericks personal foul
  19. Q4 4:04
    +1
    Aaron Gordon makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    110-98
  20. Q4 4:21
    +2
    Mavericks makes two point jump shot
    109-98
  21. Q4 4:28
    Mavericks offensive rebound
  22. Q4 4:28
    Nuggets personal foul
  23. Q4 4:28
    Nuggets lineup change (Tim Hardaway Jr., Jamal Murray, Peyton Watson, Spencer Jones, Aaron Gordon)
  24. Q4 4:35
    Mavericks personal foul
  25. Q4 4:35
    Bruce Brown misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  26. Q4 4:35
    Nuggets offensive rebound
  27. Q4 4:35
    +1
    Bruce Brown makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    109-96
  28. Q4 5:04
    Nuggets misses two point jump shot
  29. Q4 5:23
    Nuggets personal foul
  30. Q4 5:23
    +1
    Brandon Williams makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    108-94
  31. Q4 5:36
    +2
    Nuggets makes two point jump shot
    108-93
  32. Q4 5:52
    +2
    Mavericks makes two point jump shot
    106-93
  33. Q4 5:52
    Nuggets 60 second timeout
  34. Q4 5:52
    Nuggets lineup change (Jamal Murray, Spencer Jones, Aaron Gordon, Jalen Pickett, Bruce Brown)
  35. Q4 6:23
    +3
    Mavericks makes three point jump shot
    106-91
  36. Q4 6:40
    +2
    Nuggets makes two point jump shot
    106-88
  37. Q4 6:48
    Mavericks misses two point jump shot
  38. Q4 6:59
    +3
    Nuggets makes three point jump shot
    104-88
  39. Q4 7:26
    +2
    Mavericks makes two point jump shot
    101-88
  40. Q4 7:30
    Naji Marshall defensive rebound
  41. Q4 7:47
    Nuggets offensive rebound
  42. Q4 7:47
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  43. Q4 8:11
    Nuggets personal foul
  44. Q4 8:11
    +1
    P.J. Washington makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    101-86
  45. Q4 8:11
    Nuggets lineup change (Tim Hardaway Jr., Jamal Murray, Spencer Jones, Aaron Gordon, Bruce Brown)
  46. Q4 8:11
    Mavericks lineup change (Jaden Hardy, Caleb Martin, Brandon Williams, P.J. Washington, Naji Marshall)
  47. Q4 8:11
    P.J. Washington misses regular free throw 2 of 2
  48. Q4 8:14
    Brandon Williams defensive rebound
  49. Q4 8:29
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  50. Q4 8:56
    Peyton Watson defensive rebound
  51. Q4 9:08
    +2
    Nuggets makes two point jump shot
    98-85
  52. Q4 9:20
    Nuggets defensive rebound
  53. Q4 9:20
    Mavericks lineup change (Klay Thompson, Ryan Nembhard, Jaden Hardy, P.J. Washington, Naji Marshall)
  54. Q4 9:42
    Tim Hardaway Jr. defensive rebound
  55. Q4 9:57
    +2
    Nuggets makes two point jump shot
    93-85
  56. Q4 10:10
    Mavericks misses three point jump shot
  57. Q4 10:14
    Jaden Hardy offensive rebound
  58. Q4 10:17
    +2
    Mavericks makes two point jump shot
    91-85
  59. Q4 10:34
    +3
    Nuggets makes three point jump shot
    91-83
  60. Q4 11:12
    Nuggets defensive rebound
  61. Q4 11:13
    Mavericks misses two point jump shot
  62. Q4 11:24
    Caleb Martin defensive rebound
  63. Q4 11:26
    Nuggets misses three point jump shot
  64. Q3 00:00
    Mavericks misses three point jump shot
  65. Q3 00:00
    End of 3rd Quarter.
  66. Q4 12:00
    Mavericks lineup change (Klay Thompson, Ryan Nembhard, Jaden Hardy, Caleb Martin, P.J. Washington)
  67. Q3 00:03
    Dwight Powell defensive rebound
  68. Q3 00:36
    Bruce Brown turnover (offensive foul)
  69. Q3 00:52
    Naji Marshall defensive rebound
  70. Q3 00:56
    Nuggets misses three point jump shot
  71. Q3 1:18
    +2
    Naji Marshall makes two point jump shot
    88-75
  72. Q3 1:18
    Nuggets personal foul
  73. Q3 1:18
    +1
    Naji Marshall makes regular free throw 1 of 1
    88-76
  74. Q3 1:44
    +2
    Mavericks makes two point jump shot
    86-73
  75. Q3 1:49
    Caleb Martin defensive rebound
  76. Q3 2:13
    Mavericks misses two point jump shot
  77. Q3 2:24
    +2
    Nuggets makes two point jump shot
    86-69
  78. Q3 2:29
    Nuggets misses two point jump shot
  79. Q3 2:44
    Brandon Williams misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  80. Q3 2:44
    Mavericks offensive rebound
  81. Q3 2:50
    Nuggets misses three point jump shot
  82. Q3 2:54
    Mavericks personal foul
  83. Q3 3:34
    Nuggets turnover
  84. Q3 3:57
    +1
    Brandon Williams makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    84-64
  85. Q3 4:02
    Nuggets personal foul
  86. Q3 4:02
    Mavericks lineup change (Dwight Powell, Klay Thompson, Caleb Martin, Brandon Williams, Naji Marshall)
  87. Q3 4:06
    Jalen Pickett defensive rebound
  88. Q3 4:15
    Nuggets misses two point jump shot
  89. Q3 4:30
    Nuggets personal foul
  90. Q3 4:30
    Stoppage (Injury)
  91. Q3 4:30
    +1
    Daniel Gafford makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    84-62
  92. Q3 4:54
    Spencer Jones defensive rebound
  93. Q3 4:57
    Nuggets personal foul
  94. Q3 4:57
    Mavericks lineup change (Klay Thompson, Caleb Martin, Brandon Williams, Daniel Gafford, Naji Marshall)
  95. Q3 4:57
    Mavericks offensive rebound
  96. Q3 5:18
    +2
    Mavericks makes two point jump shot
    81-61
  97. Q3 5:40
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  98. Q3 5:42
    Mavericks misses three point jump shot
  99. Q3 5:47
    Mavericks offensive rebound
  100. Q3 5:47
    Mavericks lineup change (Dwight Powell, Klay Thompson, Caleb Martin, Brandon Williams, Naji Marshall)
  101. Q3 5:56
    Mavericks offensive rebound
  102. Q3 6:11
    +3
    Nuggets makes three point jump shot
    79-59
  103. Q3 6:38
    +2
    Mavericks makes two point jump shot
    76-59
  104. Q3 6:57
    +2
    Aaron Gordon makes two point jump shot
    76-57
  105. Q3 7:18
    +2
    Mavericks makes two point jump shot
    74-57
  106. Q3 7:42
    Aaron Gordon offensive rebound
  107. Q3 7:52
    Mavericks turnover
  108. Q3 8:17
    Nuggets defensive rebound
  109. Q3 8:18
    Mavericks misses two point jump shot
  110. Q3 8:49
    +2
    Mavericks makes two point jump shot
    69-54
  111. Q3 8:49
    +1
    Jaden Hardy makes regular free throw 1 of 1
    69-55
  112. Q3 9:29
    Mavericks lineup change (Dwight Powell, Ryan Nembhard, Jaden Hardy, P.J. Washington, Naji Marshall)
  113. Q3 9:36
    Mavericks misses three point jump shot
  114. Q3 9:43
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  115. Q3 9:44
    Naji Marshall offensive rebound
  116. Q3 9:55
    Mavericks misses three point jump shot
  117. Q3 9:55
    Nuggets defensive rebound
  118. Q3 10:10
    Mavericks personal foul
  119. Q3 10:10
    +1
    Jamal Murray makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    67-50
  120. Q3 10:23
    Mavericks misses two point jump shot
  121. Q3 10:31
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  122. Q3 10:42
    +1
    Spencer Jones makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    65-50
  123. Q3 10:53
    +2
    Mavericks makes two point jump shot
    63-50
  124. Q3 11:07
    Daniel Gafford defensive rebound
  125. Q3 11:12
    Jalen Pickett offensive rebound
  126. Q3 11:16
    Nuggets misses two point jump shot
  127. Q3 11:38
    Nuggets personal foul
  128. Q3 11:38
    +1
    Naji Marshall makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    63-48
  129. Q3 11:45
    Nuggets misses three point jump shot
  130. Q2 00:00
    Mavericks misses three point jump shot
  131. Q2 00:00
    End of 1st Half.
  132. Q2 00:28
    +2
    Mavericks makes two point jump shot
    61-46
  133. Q2 00:45
    +2
    Nuggets makes two point jump shot
    61-44
  134. Q2 1:28
    +1
    Naji Marshall makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    56-41
  135. Q2 1:28
    Nuggets lineup change (Tim Hardaway Jr., Jamal Murray, Spencer Jones, Aaron Gordon, Jalen Pickett)
  136. Q2 1:35
    Klay Thompson defensive rebound
  137. Q2 1:55
    +2
    Mavericks makes two point jump shot
    56-40
  138. Q2 2:05
    Nuggets misses three point jump shot
  139. Q2 2:35
    +2
    Nuggets makes two point jump shot
    56-38
  140. Q2 2:35
    Mavericks 60 second timeout
  141. Q2 2:35
    Mavericks lineup change (Klay Thompson, Cooper Flagg, Caleb Martin, Daniel Gafford, Naji Marshall)
  142. Q2 2:35
    Aaron Gordon misses regular free throw 1 of 1
  143. Q2 3:04
    Nuggets turnover
  144. Q2 3:15
    Peyton Watson defensive rebound
  145. Q2 3:18
    Mavericks misses two point jump shot
  146. Q2 3:32
    Daniel Gafford offensive rebound
  147. Q2 3:39
    Brandon Williams defensive rebound
  148. Q2 3:42
    +1
    Peyton Watson makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    54-36
  149. Q2 3:50
    Aaron Gordon defensive rebound
  150. Q2 4:03
    +2
    Nuggets makes two point jump shot
    53-36
  151. Q2 4:27
    +2
    Mavericks makes two point jump shot
    51-35
  152. Q2 4:27
    +1
    Dwight Powell makes regular free throw 1 of 1
    51-36
  153. Q2 4:37
    Mavericks personal foul
  154. Q2 4:44
    Bruce Brown offensive rebound
  155. Q2 4:46
    Nuggets misses three point jump shot
  156. Q2 4:56
    Aaron Gordon defensive rebound
  157. Q2 5:14
    +2
    Nuggets makes two point jump shot
    48-33
  158. Q2 5:43
    P.J. Washington defensive rebound
  159. Q2 5:45
    Nuggets misses three point jump shot
  160. Q2 6:06
    Nuggets lineup change (Tim Hardaway Jr., Jamal Murray, Peyton Watson, Aaron Gordon, Bruce Brown)
  161. Q2 6:16
    Nuggets personal foul
  162. Q2 6:24
    Nuggets misses three point jump shot
  163. Q2 6:32
    Mavericks misses three point jump shot
  164. Q2 6:58
    Mavericks turnover
  165. Q2 7:26
    Bruce Brown defensive rebound
  166. Q2 7:26
    Nuggets lineup change (Tim Hardaway Jr., Peyton Watson, Aaron Gordon, Jalen Pickett, Bruce Brown)
  167. Q2 7:35
    Dwight Powell offensive rebound
  168. Q2 8:02
    DaRon Holmes II defensive rebound
  169. Q2 8:06
    Mavericks misses three point jump shot
  170. Q2 8:19
    Mavericks misses two point jump shot
  171. Q2 8:26
    Miles Kelly offensive rebound
  172. Q2 8:41
    Zeke Nnaji offensive rebound
  173. Q2 8:41
    Mavericks lineup change (Dwight Powell, Klay Thompson, Miles Kelly, Cooper Flagg, Brandon Williams)
  174. Q2 8:41
    +1
    Zeke Nnaji makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    40-28
  175. Q2 8:58
    Nuggets personal foul
  176. Q2 8:58
    Mavericks offensive rebound
  177. Q2 8:58
    +1
    Daniel Gafford makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    38-28
  178. Q2 8:59
    Mavericks misses two point jump shot
  179. Q2 9:06
    Ryan Nembhard defensive rebound
  180. Q2 9:08
    Nuggets misses three point jump shot
  181. Q2 9:27
    +2
    Mavericks makes two point jump shot
    38-27
  182. Q2 9:30
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  183. Q2 9:32
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  184. Q2 9:52
    Nuggets misses three point jump shot
  185. Q2 10:01
    DaRon Holmes II defensive rebound
  186. Q2 10:19
    Mavericks defensive rebound
  187. Q2 10:37
    +2
    Mavericks makes two point jump shot
    38-25
  188. Q2 10:49
    +3
    Nuggets makes three point jump shot
    38-23
  189. Q2 11:03
    Mavericks misses three point jump shot
  190. Q2 11:16
    +3
    Nuggets makes three point jump shot
    35-23
  191. Q2 11:34
    Nuggets violation
  192. Q2 11:44
    +2
    Nuggets makes two point jump shot
    31-23
  193. Q2 11:44
    +1
    Jalen Pickett makes regular free throw 1 of 1
    32-23
  194. Q1 00:00
    Nuggets offensive rebound
  195. Q2 12:00
    Nuggets lineup change (Tim Hardaway Jr., Zeke Nnaji, Jalen Pickett, Bruce Brown, DaRon Holmes II)
  196. Q1 00:13
    Zeke Nnaji defensive rebound
  197. Q1 00:32
    Mavericks personal foul
  198. Q1 00:32
    Nuggets lineup change (Tim Hardaway Jr., Jamal Murray, Zeke Nnaji, Jalen Pickett, Bruce Brown)
  199. Q1 00:45
    Zeke Nnaji defensive rebound
  200. Q1 00:57
    +2
    Nuggets makes two point jump shot
    27-23
  201. Q1 1:24
    +2
    Caleb Martin makes two point jump shot (Ryan Nembhard assists)
    25-23
  202. Q1 1:39
    Zeke Nnaji defensive rebound
  203. Q1 1:41
    Ryan Nembhard misses two point stepback jump shot
  204. Q1 2:10
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  205. Q1 2:27
    +3
    Klay Thompson makes three point jump shot (Caleb Martin assists)
    25-21
  206. Q1 2:43
    Nuggets lineup change (Tim Hardaway Jr., Jamal Murray, Peyton Watson, Zeke Nnaji, Bruce Brown)
  207. Q1 2:44
    +2
    Peyton Watson makes two point turnaround fadeaway jump shot
    25-18
  208. Q1 3:18
    +3
    Spencer Jones makes three point jump shot (Jamal Murray assists)
    23-18
  209. Q1 3:26
    Stoppage (Equipment malfunction)
  210. Q1 3:43
    +2
    Naji Marshall makes two point turnaround jump shot (Klay Thompson assists)
    20-18
  211. Q1 4:01
    +2
    Zeke Nnaji makes two point cutting layup
    20-16
  212. Q1 4:45
    Mavericks offensive rebound
  213. Q1 4:45
    +1
    Brandon Williams makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    15-14
  214. Q1 4:45
    Jamal Murray shooting foul (Brandon Williams draws the foul)
  215. Q1 4:53
    +2
    Aaron Gordon makes two point pullup jump shot
    15-13
  216. Q1 5:17
    +3
    Aaron Gordon makes three point jump shot (Spencer Jones assists)
    13-13
  217. Q1 5:19
    Spencer Jones offensive rebound
  218. Q1 5:31
    Cooper Flagg misses three point pullup jump shot
  219. Q1 5:40
    Mavericks defensive rebound
  220. Q1 6:02
    +3
    Klay Thompson makes three point jump shot (Cooper Flagg assists)
    10-13
  221. Q1 6:14
    Cooper Flagg shooting foul (Jamal Murray draws the foul)
  222. Q1 6:23
    Spencer Jones defensive rebound
  223. Q1 6:26
    Tim Hardaway Jr. shooting foul (Brandon Williams draws the foul)
  224. Q1 6:26
    Brandon Williams misses regular free throw 2 of 2
  225. Q1 6:44
    Peyton Watson offensive foul (Charge) (Jaden Hardy draws the foul)
  226. Q1 6:56
    +2
    Cooper Flagg makes two point driving layup
    7-9
  227. Q1 7:19
    Mavericks lineup change (Dwight Powell, Jaden Hardy, Cooper Flagg, Brandon Williams, Naji Marshall)
  228. Q1 7:19
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  229. Q1 7:52
    +2
    Cooper Flagg makes two point running layup
    7-7
  230. Q1 7:57
    Jaden Hardy defensive rebound
  231. Q1 8:19
    P.J. Washington misses two point driving floating jump shot
  232. Q1 8:24
    Daniel Gafford offensive rebound
  233. Q1 8:36
    Jamal Murray misses three point stepback jump shot
  234. Q1 8:46
    Jalen Pickett defensive rebound
  235. Q1 9:01
    Mavericks 60 second timeout
  236. Q1 9:01
    +1
    Jamal Murray makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    6-5
  237. Q1 9:20
    +2
    Cooper Flagg makes two point floating jump shot (Naji Marshall assists)
    5-5
  238. Q1 9:32
    +2
    Jamal Murray makes two point running finger roll layup
    5-3
  239. Q1 9:48
    Aaron Gordon misses three point jump shot
  240. Q1 10:06
    Mavericks offensive rebound
  241. Q1 10:06
    P.J. Washington misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  242. Q1 10:21
    +3
    Peyton Watson makes three point jump shot (Spencer Jones assists)
    3-2
  243. Q1 10:51
    Aaron Gordon misses two point jump shot
  244. Q1 11:06
    Spencer Jones defensive rebound
  245. Q1 11:20
    Jamal Murray misses two point stepback jump shot
  246. Q1 11:35
    Aaron Gordon defensive rebound
  247. Q1 12:00
    Aaron Gordon vs. Daniel Gafford (Naji Marshall gains possession)
  248. Q1 12:00
    Start of 1st Quarter
Box Score
Nuggets
PosPlayerPts
Mavericks
PosPlayerPts

Nuggets vs. Mavericks: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Nuggets vs. Mavericks
  • Date: Wednesday, January 14, 2026
  • Time: 9:30 PM ET
  • Venue: American Airlines Center

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Mavericks favored at -2.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 216.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Nuggets +116, Mavericks -115

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Nuggets: 42%
  • Mavericks: 58%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Projected Final Score

Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Nuggets 110-112 Mavericks.

This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Nuggets a win probability of 42%, while the Mavericks have a win probability of 58%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Mavericks are more likely to beat the Nuggets in the NBA game at American Airlines Center on Thursday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Nuggets vs. Mavericks predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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For further insights, explore our expert NBA predictions and the best NBA bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NBA props, NBA futures, NBA odds, and the latest NBA news.