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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Wednesday, January 14, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 1/14.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Wednesday, January 14, 2026—are live with the Clippers' Kawhi Leonard projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections draw on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Leonard, Jalen Brunson and Pascal Siakam lead Wednesday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also showcase tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (January 14, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 15.7% |
| Jalen Brunson | Knicks | 15.2% |
| Pascal Siakam | Pacers | 14.9% |
| Zion Williamson | Pelicans | 14.8% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 14.6% |
| Tyrese Maxey | 76ers | 14.0% |
| Joel Embiid | 76ers | 13.8% |
| Brandon Ingram | Raptors | 13.3% |
| Lauri Markkanen | Jazz | 13.3% |
| Alex Sarr | Wizards | 13.2% |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 12.7% |
| Aaron Gordon | Nuggets | 12.5% |
| Peyton Watson | Nuggets | 12.0% |
| Nikola Vucevic | Bulls | 12.0% |
| Tre Johnson | Wizards | 11.8% |
NBA first basket picks today (January 14, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaden Hardy | Mavericks | 3.0% | +1100 | 11.3% |
| Tre Jones | Bulls | 2.6% | +1300 | 9.8% |
| Tre Johnson | Wizards | 2.3% | +950 | 11.9% |
| Matas Buzelis | Bulls | 1.7% | +950 | 11.2% |
| Alex Sarr | Wizards | 1.5% | +750 | 13.2% |
| Coby White | Bulls | 1.3% | +950 | 10.8% |
| Russell Westbrook | Kings | 1.1% | +950 | 10.6% |
| Naji Marshall | Mavericks | 0.6% | +950 | 10.2% |
| Tyrese Maxey | 76ers | 0.6% | +650 | 14.0% |
| Maxime Raynaud | Kings | 0.2% | +900 | 10.2% |
| Darius Garland | Cavaliers | 0.1% | +850 | 10.6% |
| Aaron Gordon | Nuggets | 0.0% | +700 | 12.5% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 1/14.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Wednesday, January 14, 2026, Kawhi Leonard, Jalen Brunson and Pascal Siakam lead our first basket projections, while Jaden Hardy shapes as the strongest value play at +1100. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For guidance on safer wagering habits, explore our Responsible Gambling resources.
Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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