AI model ranks every team's chances to win the 2027 NBA Finals

The 2026-27 NBA season tips off Tuesday, Oct. 20, and everyone is already asking: who will win the 2027 NBA Finals? That's where Dimers' AI NBA predictions model comes in.

When opening night rolls around, Dimers NBA predictions will pick up right where they left off in June. The New York Knicks raise their first championship banner since 1973 against a Philadelphia 76ers team that now features LeBron James and Jaylen Brown, before the Spurs host the Thunder in a rematch of last season's Western Conference Finals.

Last season was a storybook finish for New York. The Knicks beat the Spurs 4-1 in the 2026 NBA Finals, clinching with a 94-90 win in San Antonio as Jalen Brunson took home Finals MVP. San Antonio reached the Finals by knocking off the 64-18 Thunder in seven games, while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander won his second straight MVP.

Then we had ourselves quite the offseason, prompting fans to question who will be crowned NBA Champions in 2027?

The NBA offseason's biggest moves:

• Giannis Antetokounmpo was traded from Milwaukee to Miami for a package built around Tyler Herro, Kel'el Ware and multiple first-round picks.
• LeBron James left the Lakers after eight seasons and signed with the 76ers, who also traded Paul George to Boston for Jaylen Brown.
• Kawhi Leonard was dealt to Toronto, a trade the NBA held up until Sept. 14 while it investigated the Clippers for salary-cap circumvention.
• LaMelo Ball went to Minnesota and Ja Morant to Portland.
• Victor Wembanyama signed a five-year extension worth about $252 million to stay in San Antonio.
• The Washington Wizards won the lottery and took AJ Dybantsa No. 1 overall.

That's a whole lot of action that dramatically reshapes NBA betting strategies around some of the teams expected to contend for a top seed through the season.

NBA season is a week away and we've got something new to show you 👀 Join us for a free live webinar next Monday as we gear up for the biggest season yet on Dimers: https://t.co/Mt99E4dJY2

— Dimers (@dimerscom) October 12, 2026

Fortunately, Dimers simulates the full 2026-27 season and turns those results into a title probability for all 30 teams. Compare that probability to the best available sportsbook price and you can see who is overpriced, who is fairly priced and where the value lies.

Before the action gets underway, and after we correctly predicted the WNBA Finals for the second year in a row, see how the Dimers NBA model ranks every single team's chances to win it all this season.

The Favorites for the 2027 NBA Championship

1. San Antonio Spurs: 22.2% (best odds +275)

The Spurs went 62-20, beat OKC in a seven-game West finals and fell to the Knicks in the Finals. Wembanyama, the first unanimous Defensive Player of the Year, is locked in on a five-year extension, and the core of De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper returns with Tobias Harris added (though a calf strain has him questionable for opening night).

After winning just one game in the Finals, we make San Antonio the team to beat.

2. Oklahoma City Thunder: 21.3% (best odds +275)

OKC posted the league's best record at 64-18 and Gilgeous-Alexander won his second straight MVP, but the season ended with a Game 7 loss at home to San Antonio. The Thunder moved Lu Dort, Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe to get under the second apron, and Jalen Williams says he has been fully healthy since mid-June after a hamstring injury kept him out of the West finals.

Any value? Nowhere in this tier. At +275, the market implies a 26.7% chance for each team, while the model has both closer to 21-22%. The Dimers model agrees these are the two best teams in basketball, but it doesn't agree you should pay that price for them in October.

Tier 2: The top contenders

3. New York Knicks: 8.0% (best odds +900)

The defending champions swept Philadelphia and Cleveland on their way to the title, and Finals MVP and future MSG statue Jalen Brunson says he's fine after offseason wrist surgery. Mitchell Robinson left for Boston, and Karl-Anthony Towns' extension talks have been tabled heading into the season.

4. Philadelphia 76ers: 7.7% (best odds +950)

The Sixers came back from 3-1 down to beat Boston in the first round before the Knicks swept them, then added LeBron James and Jaylen Brown to a core of Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid. Embiid, who played just 38 regular-season games last year, says he's healthy and "not worried" about his injury history.

5. Boston Celtics: 6.2% (best odds +1500)

Boston went 56-26 but blew a 3-1 first-round lead to Philadelphia, then traded Brown to the Sixers for Paul George and draft picks. Jayson Tatum returned from his Achilles tear in March and is fully healthy for his first full season since the injury.

Any value? Not much. The Knicks (+900 implies 10%) and Sixers (+950 implies 9.5%) are both priced shorter than the model's numbers. Boston at +1500 is essentially fair against its 6.2% (fair odds about +1515), but there's no edge worth locking in as of preseason.

Tier 3: NBA darkhorses who can make a run

6. Toronto Raptors: 3.4% (best odds +2500)

Toronto went 46-36 and pushed Cleveland to seven games in its first playoff trip in four years. Now it adds Kawhi Leonard, who averaged a career-high 27.9 points last season and signed a two-year, $115 million extension to return to Toronto.

7. Miami Heat: 3.3% (best odds +3000)

The Heat went 43-39 and missed the playoffs for the first time since 2019 after a 127-126 overtime play-in loss at Charlotte. Then they traded for Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bobby Portis, and added Klay Thompson, giving Erik Spoelstra a new-look roster built around Giannis and Bam Adebayo.

8. Los Angeles Lakers: 2.9% (best odds +4000)

The Lakers went 53-29 but were swept by OKC in the second round with Luka Doncic sidelined by a hamstring strain. LeBron is gone, Luka is fully healthy, Austin Reaves re-signed for four years and $185 million, and Walker Kessler arrived from Utah in a sign-and-trade.

9. Minnesota Timberwolves: 2.9% (best odds +2500)

Minnesota went 49-33, beat Denver in the first round and fell to San Antonio in six. The Wolves added LaMelo Ball and Jonathan Kuminga, but Donte DiVincenzo is still working back from a ruptured Achilles.

10. Detroit Pistons: 2.7% (best odds +2500)

Detroit was the East's No. 1 seed at 60-22 before losing Game 7 at home to Cleveland in the second round. The Pistons locked up Jalen Duren (five years, $200 million) and Ausar Thompson (five years, $155 million), though Tobias Harris left for San Antonio.

11. Cleveland Cavaliers: 2.6% (best odds +3000)

The Cavs beat Toronto and Detroit in seven-game series before the Knicks swept them in the East finals. Donovan Mitchell signed a four-year, $273 million extension, and Cleveland added Peyton Watson in a sign-and-trade.

12. Denver Nuggets: 2.5% (best odds +2500)

Denver won 54 games but lost to Minnesota in the first round, its third straight early exit. The Nuggets added DeMar DeRozan on a minimum deal, and Nikola Jokic says he wants to stay and plans to sign his supermax extension next summer.

13. Indiana Pacers: 2.1% (best odds +5000)

Indiana went 19-63 with Tyrese Haliburton out all season recovering from the Achilles tear he suffered in Game 7 of the 2025 Finals. Haliburton says he's "100%" with no restrictions, and he looked it on Oct. 13 with 24 points in 18 minutes against OKC.

Tier 4: Play-in contenders (1% to 2%)

14. Portland Trail Blazers: 1.5% (best odds +8000)

Portland went 42-40 for its first playoff berth since 2021 before San Antonio beat it 4-1 in the first round. Damian Lillard is back from a torn Achilles with no limitations, Ja Morant arrived from Memphis, and first-time head coach Micah Nori takes over.

15. Golden State Warriors: 1.4% (best odds +6000)

The Warriors went 37-45 and lost a play-in game at Phoenix. Stephen Curry signed a two-year, $116 million extension, but Kristaps Porzingis is out indefinitely with a health issue and Jimmy Butler isn't targeting a return from his torn ACL until early 2027.

16. Phoenix Suns: 1.4% (best odds +15000)

Phoenix blew past a preseason win total of 30.5 to finish 45-37, then got swept by OKC in the first round. The Suns added Miles Bridges from Charlotte, and Jordan Ott returns for a second season.

17. Orlando Magic: 1.3% (best odds +8000)

Orlando led No. 1 seed Detroit 3-1 in the first round and lost three straight, its third straight first-round exit. Jamahl Mosley was fired and Spurs assistant Sean Sweeney takes over, with Franz Wagner (34 games last season) the health question to watch.

18. Houston Rockets: 1.2% (best odds +6000)

Houston went 52-30 but lost to the Lakers in six games with Kevin Durant playing just once in the series. Fred VanVleet is cleared after missing all of last season with a torn ACL, and Marcus Smart reunites with coach Ime Udoka.

19. Dallas Mavericks: 1.1% (best odds +18000)

Dallas went 26-56, but Cooper Flagg won Rookie of the Year averaging 21.0 points, 6.7 rebounds and 4.5 assists. Masai Ujiri now runs basketball operations, Dusty May jumps from Michigan to coach, and Kyrie Irving says he has no restrictions after his ACL tear.

Tier 5: Tanking from Day 1

It's worth noting that the NBA's new lottery rules for the 2027 draft expand the lottery to 16 teams and give the three worst records the worst odds at No. 1. Bottoming out pays less than it used to, but none of these teams project for more than a basement finish,

20. Milwaukee Bucks: 0.9% (best odds +75000)

Milwaukee went 32-50 and missed the playoffs, ending a nine-year postseason streak, then traded Giannis to Miami. Taylor Jenkins takes over as coach, and the rebuild starts with Tyler Herro and lottery picks Brayden Burries (No. 10) and Nate Ament (No. 13).

21. Chicago Bulls: 0.7% (best odds +75000)

Chicago went 31-51 and missed the playoffs for a fourth straight year, leading to a new front office under Bryson Graham and new coach Tiago Splitter. The Bulls drafted Caleb Wilson No. 4 and signed Norman Powell.

22. LA Clippers: 0.6% (best odds +50000)

The Clippers went 42-40 and lost in the play-in, then traded Kawhi Leonard to Toronto for Brandon Ingram, Gradey Dick and picks. The league's salary-cap investigation also cost them their 2029-2033 first-round picks and a $30 million fine, and owner Steve Ballmer was suspended for a year.

23. New Orleans Pelicans: 0.6% (best odds +50000)

New Orleans went 26-56 and didn't even get its own lottery pick, which belonged to Atlanta from the 2025 Derik Queen trade. Jamahl Mosley is the new coach, and Bennedict Mathurin arrived in free agency.

24. Atlanta Hawks: 0.4% (best odds +8000)

Atlanta went 46-36 and reached the playoffs, but the Knicks finished them off with a 140-89 Game 6 win. With Trae Young traded to Washington in January, the Hawks are building around No. 8 pick Kingston Flemings and new arrival Lu Dort.

25. Washington Wizards: 0.3% (best odds +15000)

Washington had the league's worst record at 17-65, then won the lottery and drafted AJ Dybantsa No. 1. The Wizards also have Trae Young on a new four-year deal and Anthony Davis, who didn't play for them after arriving at the deadline.

26. Sacramento Kings: 0.3% (best odds +100000)

Sacramento went 22-60 and drafted Darius Acuff Jr. at No. 7. Russell Westbrook retired, DeMar DeRozan was waived, and Doug Christie is back for a second full season.

27. Memphis Grizzlies: 0.1% (best odds +100000)

Memphis went 25-57, traded Jaren Jackson Jr. to Utah in February and moved Ja Morant to Portland in June. The new era belongs to No. 3 pick Cameron Boozer.

28. Utah Jazz: 0.1% (best odds +20000)

Utah went 22-60, jumped to No. 2 in the lottery and took Darryn Peterson. Keyonte George signed a five-year, $157.5 million extension, and Lauri Markkanen called the playoffs the goal at media day.

29. Brooklyn Nets: 0.1% (best odds +100000)

Brooklyn went 20-62 and drafted Mikel Brown Jr. at No. 6, then traded for Julius Randle. The Nets don't control their own 2027 first-round pick, which takes some of the incentive out of losing.

30. Charlotte Hornets: 0.0% (best odds +15000)

Charlotte went 44-38 and won a play-in game before Orlando ended its season. The Hornets traded LaMelo Ball to Minnesota and re-signed Coby White for three years and $74 million to run the offense.

Who are the NBA value bets in 2026-27?

This is where the board opens up, and features all but one of our best value plays:

Heat to win the Eastern Conference (+1300)

The model gives Miami an 8.5% chance to win the East, which works out to fair odds of +1075. There's a sliver of value for the Heat to win it all, as well. At 3.3%, fair odds are +2930, so +3000 is only slightly long, but the conference price is the better bet.

Lakers to win the NBA Finals (+4000)

The model has L.A. at 2.9%, or fair odds of +3350. The market has marked the Lakers down for losing LeBron, but Luka healthy with Reaves and Kessler around him rates better than +4000.

Pacers to win the NBA Finals (+5000)

Indiana's 2.1% converts to fair odds of +4660. Last year's 19-63 record says more about Haliburton's absence than about this roster, and a Pacers team at full strength was in Game 7 of the Finals 16 months ago.

Trail Blazers to win the Western Conference (+4000)

The model gives Portland a 2.6% chance to win the West, which works out to fair odds of +3750. That's a small edge, but a real one for a team adding Lillard and Morant to a playoff roster, For an even longer shot at 1.5%, fair odds to win the NBA Finals are +6570 while you can get Portland at +8000.

Bet on the NBA in 2026-27 with Dimers Pro

Every single player, team and betting insight in this article comes straight from Dimers Pro, your go-to resource for the NBA season.

You can find picks, props and player projections for every single NBA game this season via Dimers' NBA predictions.

Dimers Pro subscribers can also access recommended bets, edge ratings, Signals, and the best available prices throughout the season, giving complete access to all of our Dimers Pro features for both NBA and college basketball, as well as all in-season sports during that time.

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