Broncos vs. Chiefs prediction: Denver favored to win ‘TNF’ Week 17 [2025]

The Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos will lock horns in Week 17 of the NFL season at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on Christmas Day, with kickoff at 8:15 PM ET.

Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced NFL model predicts the Broncos as the most likely winner of the Broncos vs. Chiefs game.

This article offers a closer look at this week's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Broncos vs. Chiefs prediction: Who will win ‘Thursday Night Football’?

Since our Broncos-Chiefs predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the result of Thursday's NFL matchup between the Broncos and Chiefs 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives the Broncos a 92% chance of defeating the Chiefs in Week 17 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Broncos winning 25-12.

According to our model, the Chiefs (+13.5) have a 53% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 37.5 points has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 17 straight up picks.

Broncos vs. Chiefs odds

We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Broncos	Chiefs
Spread	-13.5 (-105)	+13.5 (-105)
Moneyline	-1000	+750
Total	o37.5 (-115)	u37.5 (-102)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Broncos vs. Chiefs picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Chiefs +13.5	-105
Moneyline	Broncos	-1000
Total	Under 37.5	-102

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Chiefs +13.5 at the spread.

Broncos vs. Chiefs TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Broncos vs. Chiefs?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for TNF, RJ Harvey is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Broncos vs. Chiefs.

Our projections give Harvey a 52.7% chance of getting in for six at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, while the running back is a 16.9% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Denver Broncos

Player	Anytime TD Probability
RJ Harvey (RB)	52.7%
Courtland Sutton (WR)	35.8%
Troy Franklin (WR)	26.1%
Bo Nix (QB)	18.9%
Jaleel McLaughlin (RB)	18.7%

Kansas City Chiefs

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Kareem Hunt (RB)	21.0%
Isiah Pacheco (RB)	20.9%
Travis Kelce (TE)	17.8%
Xavier Worthy (WR)	15.0%
Hollywood Brown (WR)	11.8%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Denver Broncos

Player	First TD Probability
RJ Harvey (RB)	16.9%
Courtland Sutton (WR)	10.0%
Troy Franklin (WR)	6.8%
Bo Nix (QB)	4.7%
Jaleel McLaughlin (RB)	4.7%

Kansas City Chiefs

Player	First TD Probability
Kareem Hunt (RB)	4.8%
Isiah Pacheco (RB)	4.8%
Travis Kelce (TE)	4.0%
Xavier Worthy (WR)	3.3%
Hollywood Brown (WR)	2.6%

Broncos vs Chiefs player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Broncos and Chiefs. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 17 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Broncos' Bo Nix is projected for 240 passing yards, while the Chiefs' Chris Oladokun is expected to throw for just 165 yards.

Player	Proj. Pass Yards
Bo Nix (DEN)	240
Chris Oladokun (KC)	165

Broncos rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
RJ Harvey	55
Jaleel McLaughlin	28
Bo Nix	17

Chiefs rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
Isiah Pacheco	38
Chris Oladokun	20
Kareem Hunt	20

Broncos receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
Courtland Sutton	66
Troy Franklin	44
Evan Engram	29
Lil'Jordan Humphrey	26
Marvin Mims	26

Chiefs receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
Travis Kelce	40
Xavier Worthy	36
Hollywood Brown	26
JuJu Smith-Schuster	25
Isiah Pacheco	15

Broncos vs. Chiefs game-day updates and essential details

The NFL Week 17 action between the Chiefs and Broncos at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium is scheduled to begin at 8:15 PM ET.

• Who: Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs
• Date: Thursday, December 25, 2025
• Time: 8:15 PM ET/5:15PM PT
• Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Broncos, with a 92% win probability, will likely beat the Chiefs in Week 17 of the NFL season.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Broncos vs. Chiefs insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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