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Broncos vs. Chiefs prediction: Denver favored to win ‘TNF’ Week 17 [2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs predictions for NFL Thursday.
NFL Week 17 action continues on Christmas Day at 8:15 PM ET as the Denver Broncos take on the Kansas City Chiefs at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced NFL model predicts the Broncos as the most likely winner of the Broncos vs. Chiefs game.
This article offers further insights into this week's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Broncos vs. Chiefs prediction: Who will win ‘Thursday Night Football’?
Since our Broncos-Chiefs predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's NFL game between the Broncos and Chiefs 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Broncos a 93% chance of defeating the Chiefs in Week 17 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Broncos winning 24-11.
According to our model, the Chiefs (+13.5) have a 53% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 36.5 points has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 17 straight up picks.
Broncos vs. Chiefs odds
We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Broncos | Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -13.5 (-110) | +13.5 (-105) |
| Moneyline | -1000 | +750 |
| Total | o36.5 (-108) | u36.5 (-108) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Broncos vs. Chiefs picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Chiefs +13.5 | -105 |
| Moneyline | Broncos | -1000 |
| Total | Under 36.5 | -108 |
According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Chiefs +13.5 at the spread.
Broncos vs. Chiefs TD scorers
Who will score a touchdown in Broncos vs. Chiefs?
According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for today, RJ Harvey is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Broncos vs. Chiefs.
Our projections give Harvey a 50.9% chance of scoring a TD at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, while the running back is a 16.9% chance of registering the first touchdown the game.
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions
Denver Broncos
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| RJ Harvey (RB) | 50.9% |
| Courtland Sutton (WR) | 35.6% |
| Troy Franklin (WR) | 24.9% |
| Evan Engram (TE) | 18.5% |
| Jaleel McLaughlin (RB) | 18.3% |
Kansas City Chiefs
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt (RB) | 19.7% |
| Isiah Pacheco (RB) | 19.5% |
| Travis Kelce (TE) | 17.5% |
| Xavier Worthy (WR) | 14.8% |
| Hollywood Brown (WR) | 12.0% |
First touchdown scorer predictions
Denver Broncos
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| RJ Harvey (RB) | 16.9% |
| Courtland Sutton (WR) | 10.5% |
| Troy Franklin (WR) | 6.8% |
| Evan Engram (TE) | 4.9% |
| Jaleel McLaughlin (RB) | 4.8% |
Kansas City Chiefs
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt (RB) | 4.5% |
| Isiah Pacheco (RB) | 4.5% |
| Travis Kelce (TE) | 4.0% |
| Xavier Worthy (WR) | 3.3% |
| Hollywood Brown (WR) | 2.6% |
Broncos vs Chiefs player props
Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Broncos and Chiefs. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 17 games.
Quarterbacks
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Broncos' Bo Nix is projected for 239 passing yards, while the Chiefs' Chris Oladokun is expected to throw for just 164 yards.
| Player | Proj. Pass Yards |
|---|---|
| Bo Nix (DEN) | 239 |
| Chris Oladokun (KC) | 164 |
Broncos rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| RJ Harvey | 55 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 28 |
| Bo Nix | 16 |
Chiefs rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco | 38 |
| Chris Oladokun | 21 |
| Kareem Hunt | 20 |
Broncos receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 65 |
| Troy Franklin | 43 |
| Evan Engram | 29 |
| Marvin Mims | 25 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 25 |
Chiefs receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 40 |
| Xavier Worthy | 36 |
| Hollywood Brown | 26 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 23 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 15 |
Broncos vs. Chiefs game-day updates and essential details
The NFL Week 17 game between the Chiefs and Broncos at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium is scheduled to commence at 8:15 PM ET.
- Who: Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs
- Date: Thursday, December 25, 2025
- Time: 8:15 PM ET/5:15PM PT
- Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
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Conclusion
We predict the Broncos, with a 93% win probability, will likely beat the Chiefs in Week 17 of the NFL season.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Broncos vs. Chiefs insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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