Stars vs. Capitals prediction: Why Washington is favored to win Wednesday's NHL matchup [1/7/2026]

The Washington Capitals will square off with the Dallas Stars, in what is expected to be a tight NHL game, at Capital One Arena on Wednesday, starting at 7:00 PM ET.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven NHL model gives the Capitals a slight edge with a 51% win probability over the Stars.

This article offers further insights into Wednesday's Stars vs. Capitals matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Stars vs. Caps prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Wednesday's NHL matchup between the Stars and Capitals 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Capitals a 51% chance of beating the Stars.

According to our model, the Stars (+1.5) have a 70% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of 6.5 goals has a 54% chance of staying under.

Stars vs. Capitals odds

We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Stars	Capitals
Puck Line	+1.5 (-235)	-1.5 (+200)
Moneyline	+102	-120
Total	o6.5 (+100)	u6.5 (-120)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Stars vs. Capitals picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Puck Line	Stars +1.5	-235
Moneyline	Stars	+102
Total	Under 6.5	-120

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 6.5 total goals.

Stars vs. Capitals player props

Who will score a goal in Stars vs. Capitals?

According to our model, Jason Robertson is most likely to score an anytime goal in Stars vs. Capitals.

Our projections give Robertson a 41.4% chance of scoring a goal at Capital One Arena, while the star is an 8.3% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Dallas Stars

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Jason Robertson	41.4%
Wyatt Johnston	36.4%
Mikko Rantanen	34.7%
Roope Hintz	28.2%
Matt Duchene	22.5%

Washington Capitals

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Alex Ovechkin	39.3%
Dylan Strome	32.4%
Ryan Leonard	28.3%
Jakob Chychrun	27.9%
Connor McMichael	26.3%

First goal scorer predictions

Dallas Stars

Player	First Goal Probability
Jason Robertson	8.3%
Wyatt Johnston	7.8%
Mikko Rantanen	7.3%
Roope Hintz	5.3%
Matt Duchene	3.9%

Washington Capitals

Player	First Goal Probability
Alex Ovechkin	8.7%
Dylan Strome	6.6%
Connor McMichael	4.9%
Jakob Chychrun	4.8%
Ryan Leonard	4.8%

Stars vs. Caps game-day updates and essential details

Wednesday's game between the Capitals and Stars at Capital One Arena is scheduled to commence at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: Dallas Stars vs. Washington Capitals
• Date: Wednesday, January 7, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: Capital One Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Capitals, with a 51% win probability, will likely beat the Stars on Wednesday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Stars vs. Capitals insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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