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Stars vs. Capitals prediction: Why Washington is favored to win Wednesday's NHL matchup [1/7/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Dallas Stars vs Washington Capitals predictions for NHL Wednesday.
The Washington Capitals will square off with the Dallas Stars, in what is expected to be a tight NHL game, at Capital One Arena on Wednesday, starting at 7:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven NHL model gives the Capitals a slight edge with a 51% win probability over the Stars.
This article offers further insights into Wednesday's Stars vs. Capitals matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Stars vs. Caps prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Wednesday's NHL matchup between the Stars and Capitals 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Capitals a 51% chance of beating the Stars.
According to our model, the Stars (+1.5) have a 70% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of 6.5 goals has a 54% chance of staying under.
Stars vs. Capitals odds
We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Stars | Capitals |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-235) | -1.5 (+200) |
| Moneyline | +102 | -120 |
| Total | o6.5 (+100) | u6.5 (-120) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Stars vs. Capitals picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Stars +1.5 | -235 |
| Moneyline | Stars | +102 |
| Total | Under 6.5 | -120 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 6.5 total goals.
Stars vs. Capitals player props
Who will score a goal in Stars vs. Capitals?
According to our model, Jason Robertson is most likely to score an anytime goal in Stars vs. Capitals.
Our projections give Robertson a 41.4% chance of scoring a goal at Capital One Arena, while the star is an 8.3% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Dallas Stars
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jason Robertson | 41.4% |
| Wyatt Johnston | 36.4% |
| Mikko Rantanen | 34.7% |
| Roope Hintz | 28.2% |
| Matt Duchene | 22.5% |
Washington Capitals
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Alex Ovechkin | 39.3% |
| Dylan Strome | 32.4% |
| Ryan Leonard | 28.3% |
| Jakob Chychrun | 27.9% |
| Connor McMichael | 26.3% |
First goal scorer predictions
Dallas Stars
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jason Robertson | 8.3% |
| Wyatt Johnston | 7.8% |
| Mikko Rantanen | 7.3% |
| Roope Hintz | 5.3% |
| Matt Duchene | 3.9% |
Washington Capitals
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Alex Ovechkin | 8.7% |
| Dylan Strome | 6.6% |
| Connor McMichael | 4.9% |
| Jakob Chychrun | 4.8% |
| Ryan Leonard | 4.8% |
Stars vs. Caps game-day updates and essential details
Wednesday's game between the Capitals and Stars at Capital One Arena is scheduled to commence at 7:00 PM ET.
- Who: Dallas Stars vs. Washington Capitals
- Date: Wednesday, January 7, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: Capital One Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Capitals, with a 51% win probability, will likely beat the Stars on Wednesday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Stars vs. Capitals insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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