...
...
Read Article
- More Betting
Stars vs. Lightning prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Thursday's NHL matchup [10/30/2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Dallas Stars vs Tampa Bay Lightning predictions for NHL Thursday.
The Tampa Bay Lightning will take on the Dallas Stars in NHL action at Benchmark International Arena on Thursday, starting at 7:00PM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced NHL model predicts the Lightning as the most likely winner of the Stars vs. Lightning game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's matchup, including goal scorer projections, best bets and player prop picks.
Stars vs. Lightning prediction: Who will win, cover the puck line?
Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's NHL game between the Stars and Lightning 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Lightning a 57% chance of defeating the Stars.
According to our model, the Stars (+1.5) have a 65% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of 6 goals has a 51% chance of staying under.
Stars vs. Lightning odds
We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Stars | Lightning |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-190) | -1.5 (+164) |
| Moneyline | +130 | -150 |
| Total | o6 (-105) | u6 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Stars vs. Lightning picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Stars +1.5 | -190 |
| Moneyline | Stars | +130 |
| Total | Over 6 | -105 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Stars +1.5 at the spread.
Stars vs. Lightning player props
Who will score a goal in Stars vs. Lightning?
According to our model, Jake Guentzel is most likely to score an anytime goal in Stars vs. Lightning.
Our projections give Guentzel a 43.1% chance of scoring a goal at Benchmark International Arena, while the star is an 8.8% chance of registering the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Dallas Stars
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Mikko Rantanen | 40.7% |
| Wyatt Johnston | 39.7% |
| Jason Robertson | 36.7% |
| Tyler Seguin | 30.8% |
| Mavrik Bourque | 19.1% |
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel | 43.1% |
| Brayden Point | 39.3% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 38.2% |
| Brandon Hagel | 31.7% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 28.7% |
First goal scorer predictions
Dallas Stars
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Mikko Rantanen | 8.5% |
| Wyatt Johnston | 8.3% |
| Jason Robertson | 6.5% |
| Tyler Seguin | 6.0% |
| Mavrik Bourque | 3.3% |
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel | 8.8% |
| Brayden Point | 8.5% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 8.1% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 5.9% |
| Brandon Hagel | 5.3% |
Stars vs. Lightning game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's action between the Lightning and Stars at Benchmark International Arena is scheduled to commence at 7:00PM ET.
- Who: Dallas Stars vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
- Date: Thursday, October 30, 2025
- Time: 7:00PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: Benchmark International Arena
Sports betting deal available for Thursday
To make the most of Thursday's enormous day of sports, headlined by the Ravens-Dolphins TNF clash, check out details on the latest Bet365 bonus code "DIMERS" that grants you $200 in bonus bets from a $5 bet — win or lose. Don't miss out!
Conclusion
We predict the Lightning, with a 57% win probability, will likely beat the Stars on Thursday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Stars vs. Lightning insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Note: Clicking links to our partners may earn us a referral fee. Learn about how we review products and services.
More on NHL
Keep up with the latest NHL news and parlay picks throughout the season. Plus, our Stanley Cup odds offer the most up-to-date probabilities for the Stanley Cup title.
Make the most of your sports betting experience by exploring our comprehensive list of US betting apps, and the latest sportsbooks in 2025, ensuring you never miss a top new-user deal.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
Advertiser disclosure