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Mavericks vs. Pacers prediction: Why Dallas is favored to win Sunday's NBA matchup [2/22/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Dallas Mavericks vs Indiana Pacers predictions for NBA Sunday.
The Indiana Pacers and Dallas Mavericks are scheduled to meet in NBA action at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on Sunday, with tipoff at 5:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulations and today’s injury updates, Dimers' advanced NBA model predicts the Mavericks as the most likely winner of the Mavericks vs. Pacers game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Pacers lineup will feature players like Pascal Siakam, Andrew Nembhard and Jarace Walker, while the Mavericks will look to Naji Marshall, P.J. Washington and Max Christie.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Mavs vs. Pacers prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Sunday's NBA game between the Mavericks and Pacers 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Mavericks a 56% chance of defeating the Pacers. Our predicted final score has the Mavericks winning 118-117.
According to our model, the Mavericks (-1.5) have a 52% chance of covering the spread, while the 237.5-point over/under has a 54% chance of staying under.
Mavericks vs. Pacers odds
We have sourced the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Mavericks | Pacers |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -1.5 (-105) | +1.5 (-115) |
| Moneyline | -118 | +100 |
| Total | o237.5 (-110) | u237.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Mavericks vs. Pacers picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Mavericks -1.5 | -105 |
| Moneyline | Mavericks | -118 |
| Total | Under 237.5 | -110 |
According to our best NBA bets for Sunday, the top play to make on this game is Under 237.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Mavericks vs. Pacers player props
NBA player props are an exciting way to wager on Sunday's Dallas vs. Indiana matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.
Naji Marshall is expected to lead the Mavericks with 18 points, 6 rebounds and 3 assists, while Pascal Siakam is projected to have 18 points, 5 rebounds and 3 assists for the Pacers.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Mavericks prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Mavericks are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naji Marshall | 18 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 34 |
| P.J. Washington | 16 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 35 |
| Max Christie | 14 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 26 |
| B. Williams | 12 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 24 |
| Khris Middleton | 12 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 26 |
Pacers prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Pacers:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pascal Siakam | 18 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 32 |
| Andrew Nembhard | 15 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 32 |
| Jarace Walker | 15 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 31 |
| Jay Huff | 12 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 26 |
| Quenton Jackson | 10 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 21 |
Mavs vs. Pacers game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's game between the Pacers and Mavericks at Gainbridge Fieldhouse is scheduled to start at 5:00 PM ET.
- Who: Dallas Mavericks vs. Indiana Pacers
- Date: Sunday, February 22, 2026
- Time: 5:00 PM ET/2:00PM PT
- Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse
Conclusion
We predict the Mavericks, with a 56% win probability, will likely beat the Pacers on Sunday, with P.J. Washington projected for a game-high 35 fantasy points.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Mavericks vs. Pacers insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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