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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Sunday, February 22, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of NBA slate on 2/22.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Sunday, February 22, 2026—are live with the Clippers' Kawhi Leonard projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections draw on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Leonard, Jaylen Brown and Jalen Green lead Sunday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (February 22, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 19.1% |
| Jaylen Brown | Celtics | 18.8% |
| Jalen Green | Suns | 15.1% |
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 14.9% |
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | 14.6% |
| Tyrese Maxey | 76ers | 14.6% |
| Desmond Bane | Magic | 14.0% |
| Mark Williams | Suns | 12.6% |
| Naji Marshall | Mavericks | 12.4% |
| LaMelo Ball | Hornets | 12.4% |
| Tre Johnson | Wizards | 12.3% |
| Jalen Brunson | Knicks | 12.2% |
| Brandon Miller | Hornets | 12.0% |
| Jalen Smith | Bulls | 11.8% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | Knicks | 11.6% |
NBA first basket picks today (February 22, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 3.7% | +550 | 19.1% |
| Desmond Bane | Magic | 2.2% | +750 | 14.0% |
| Naji Marshall | Mavericks | 1.8% | +850 | 12.3% |
| Jaylen Brown | Celtics | 1.6% | +480 | 18.8% |
| Jrue Holiday | Trail Blazers | 1.0% | +900 | 11.0% |
| Jalen Smith | Bulls | 0.0% | +750 | 11.8% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 2/22.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Sunday, February 22, 2026, Kawhi Leonard, Jaylen Brown and Jalen Green lead our first basket projections, with Leonard shaping as the strongest value play at +550. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For tips and resources on responsible wagering, visit our Responsible Gambling section.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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