Cowboys vs. Commanders prediction: Why Dallas is favored to win in NFL Week 17 [2025]

The Washington Commanders will face the favored Dallas Cowboys in NFL Week 17 action at Northwest Stadium on Christmas Day, beginning at 1:00 PM ET.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven NFL model predicts the Cowboys as the most likely winner of the Cowboys vs. Commanders game.

This article offers a closer look at Thursday's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Cowboys vs. Commanders prediction: Who will win and cover?

Since our Cowboys-Commanders predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's NFL game between the Cowboys and Commanders 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives the Cowboys a 72% chance of defeating the Commanders in Week 17 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Cowboys winning 28-21.

According to our model, the Commanders (+8.5) have a 57% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 50.5 points has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 17 straight up picks.

Cowboys vs. Commanders odds

We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Cowboys	Commanders
Spread	-8.5 (-115)	+8.5 (+100)
Moneyline	-480	+380
Total	o50.5 (-108)	u50.5 (-105)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Cowboys vs. Commanders picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Commanders +8.5	+100
Moneyline	Commanders	+380
Total	Under 50.5	-105

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Commanders to win.

Cowboys vs. Commanders TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Cowboys vs. Commanders?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for today, Javonte Williams is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Cowboys vs. Commanders.

Our projections give Williams a 53.5% chance of scoring a TD at Northwest Stadium, while the running back is a 13.4% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Dallas Cowboys

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Javonte Williams (RB)	53.5%
CeeDee Lamb (WR)	42.8%
George Pickens (WR)	41.2%
Jake Ferguson (TE)	34.3%
Malik Davis (RB)	24.4%

Washington Commanders

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB)	41.7%
Terry McLaurin (WR)	32.1%
Deebo Samuel (WR)	28.6%
Jeremy McNichols (RB)	23.4%
Treylon Burks (WR)	20.7%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Dallas Cowboys

Player	First TD Probability
Javonte Williams (RB)	13.4%
CeeDee Lamb (WR)	9.8%
George Pickens (WR)	9.3%
Jake Ferguson (TE)	7.3%
Malik Davis (RB)	4.9%

Washington Commanders

Player	First TD Probability
Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB)	9.0%
Terry McLaurin (WR)	6.5%
Deebo Samuel (WR)	5.7%
Jeremy McNichols (RB)	4.5%
Treylon Burks (WR)	3.9%

Cowboys vs Commanders player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Cowboys and Commanders. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 17 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Cowboys' Dak Prescott is projected to have a big game with 282 passing yards, while the Commanders' Josh Johnson is expected to throw for just 177 yards.

Player	Proj. Pass Yards
Dak Prescott (DAL)	282
Josh Johnson (WAS)	177

Cowboys rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
Javonte Williams	77
Malik Davis	25
Dak Prescott	11

Commanders rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
Jacory Croskey-Merritt	66
Jeremy McNichols	27
Josh Johnson	18

Cowboys receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
CeeDee Lamb	86
George Pickens	83
Jake Ferguson	43
KaVontae Turpin	24
Javonte Williams	14

Commanders receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
Terry McLaurin	57
Deebo Samuel	50
Treylon Burks	31
Ben Sinnott	20
Jeremy McNichols	14

Cowboys vs. Commanders game-day updates and essential details

The NFL Week 17 matchup between the Commanders and Cowboys at Northwest Stadium is scheduled to start at 1:00 PM ET.

• Who: Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders
• Date: Thursday, December 25, 2025
• Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
• Venue: Northwest Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Cowboys, with a 72% win probability, will likely beat the Commanders in Week 17 of the NFL season.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Cowboys vs. Commanders insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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