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Cowboys vs. Commanders prediction: Why Dallas is favored to win in NFL Week 17 [2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Mac Douglass, Senior Editor
Get Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders predictions for NFL Thursday.
The Washington Commanders will take on the favored Dallas Cowboys in NFL Week 17 action at Northwest Stadium on Christmas Day, beginning at 1:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven NFL model predicts the Cowboys as the most likely winner of the Cowboys vs. Commanders game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of this week's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Cowboys vs. Commanders prediction: Who will win and cover?
Since our Cowboys-Commanders predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the result of Thursday's NFL game between the Cowboys and Commanders 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Cowboys a 72% chance of defeating the Commanders in Week 17 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Cowboys winning 28-21.
According to our model, the Commanders (+8.5) have a 57% chance of covering the spread, while the 50.5-point over/under has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 17 straight up picks.
Cowboys vs. Commanders odds
We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Cowboys | Commanders |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -8.5 (-110) | +8.5 (-106) |
| Moneyline | -475 | +370 |
| Total | o50.5 (-105) | u50.5 (-108) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Cowboys vs. Commanders picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Commanders +8.5 | -106 |
| Moneyline | Commanders | +370 |
| Total | Over 50.5 | -105 |
According to our best NFL bets, the top play to make on this game is Commanders to win.
Cowboys vs. Commanders TD scorers
Who will score a touchdown in Cowboys vs. Commanders?
According to our model, Javonte Williams is most likely to score an anytime TD in Cowboys vs. Commanders.
Our projections give Williams a 53.5% chance of scoring a TD at Northwest Stadium, while the running back is a 12.5% chance of registering the first touchdown the game.
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions
Dallas Cowboys
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Javonte Williams (RB) | 53.5% |
| CeeDee Lamb (WR) | 42.4% |
| George Pickens (WR) | 41.3% |
| Jake Ferguson (TE) | 34.5% |
| Malik Davis (RB) | 24.5% |
Washington Commanders
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Chris Rodriguez (RB) | 44.4% |
| Terry McLaurin (WR) | 31.2% |
| Deebo Samuel (WR) | 27.7% |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB) | 25.3% |
| Treylon Burks (WR) | 19.8% |
First touchdown scorer predictions
Dallas Cowboys
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Javonte Williams (RB) | 12.5% |
| CeeDee Lamb (WR) | 9.0% |
| George Pickens (WR) | 8.7% |
| Jake Ferguson (TE) | 6.9% |
| Malik Davis (RB) | 4.6% |
Washington Commanders
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Chris Rodriguez (RB) | 9.4% |
| Terry McLaurin (WR) | 6.0% |
| Deebo Samuel (WR) | 5.2% |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB) | 4.7% |
| Treylon Burks (WR) | 3.5% |
Cowboys vs Commanders player props
Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Cowboys and Commanders. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 17 games.
Quarterbacks
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Cowboys' Dak Prescott is projected to have a big game with 281 passing yards. The Commanders' Josh Johnson is expected to throw for just 177 yards.
| Player | Proj. Pass Yards |
|---|---|
| Dak Prescott (DAL) | 281 |
| Josh Johnson (WAS) | 177 |
Cowboys rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 77 |
| Malik Davis | 24 |
| Dak Prescott | 11 |
Commanders rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Chris Rodriguez | 58 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 31 |
| Josh Johnson | 18 |
Cowboys receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 85 |
| George Pickens | 83 |
| Jake Ferguson | 43 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 28 |
| Ryan Flournoy | 27 |
Commanders receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 56 |
| Deebo Samuel | 50 |
| Treylon Burks | 31 |
| Ben Sinnott | 20 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 13 |
Cowboys vs. Commanders game-day updates and essential details
The NFL Week 17 game between the Commanders and Cowboys at Northwest Stadium is scheduled to begin at 1:00 PM ET.
- Who: Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders
- Date: Thursday, December 25, 2025
- Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
- Venue: Northwest Stadium
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Conclusion
We predict the Cowboys, with a 72% win probability, will likely beat the Commanders in Week 17 of the NFL season.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Cowboys vs. Commanders insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Mac Douglass specializes in NFL previews for the NFC South and NFC East, MLB best bets, Formula 1 race previews, and professional tennis insights. Combining predictive simulations and data-driven sports analysis, Mac provides in-depth content to elevate the betting experience for sports fans.
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