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UConn vs. Duke prediction: Duke favored to win men's March Madness Elite Eight matchup [3/29/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get UConn vs Duke predictions for college basketball Sunday.
Duke will take on UConn in March Madness Elite Eight action at Capital One Arena on Sunday, starting at 5:05 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven college basketball model predicts Duke as the most likely winner of the UConn vs. Duke game.
This article offers further insights into Sunday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and picks.
UConn vs. Duke prediction: Who will win and advance to the Final Four?
Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Sunday's NCAAM Tournament matchup between UConn and Duke, forming part of our men's college basketball predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives Duke a 73% chance of defeating Connecticut. Our predicted final score has Duke winning 72-66.
According to our model, Duke (-5.5) has a 55% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 135.5 points has a 55% chance of going over.
UConn vs. Duke odds
We have sourced the best men's college basketball odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | UConn | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +5.5 (-115) | -5.5 (-102) |
| Moneyline | +200 | -230 |
| Total | o135.5 (-105) | u135.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
UConn vs. Duke picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Duke -5.5 | -102 |
| Moneyline | Duke | -230 |
| Total | Over 135.5 | -105 |
According to our best men's college basketball bets, the top play to make on this game is Duke -5.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
UConn vs. Duke game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's men's college basketball action between Duke and UConn at Capital One Arena is scheduled to start at 5:05 PM ET.
- Who: Connecticut vs. Duke
- Date: Sunday, March 29, 2026
- Time: 5:05 PM ET/2:05PM PT
- Venue: Capital One Arena
- March Madness stage: Elite Eight
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Conclusion
We predict Duke, with a 73% win probability, will likely beat Connecticut this men's March Madness Elite Eight matchup.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Connecticut vs. Duke insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our responsible gambling hub.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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