Sun vs. Mercury prediction: Why Phoenix is favored to win Friday's WNBA matchup [7/17/2026]
Get Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury predictions for WNBA Friday.
WNBA action continues on Friday at 10:00 PM ET as the Connecticut Sun square off with the Phoenix Mercury at Mortgage Matchup Center.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven WNBA model projects the Mercury as the most likely winner of the Sun vs. Mercury game.
The Mercury, who have star players like Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner, are set to take on the Sun, who feature Leila Lacan, Brittney Griner and Diamond Miller.
This article offers further insights into Friday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Sun vs. Mercury prediction: Who will win and cover?
Our independent predictive model gives the Mercury a 68.4% chance of defeating the Sun.
According to our model, the Mercury (-4.5) have a 51.1% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 163.5 points has a 51.3% chance of staying under,.
Sun vs. Mercury odds
We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Sun | Mercury |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +4.5 (-108) | -4.5 (+100) |
| Moneyline | +167 | -176 |
| Total | o163.5 (-108) | u163.5 (-102) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Sun vs. Mercury picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Mercury -4.5 | +100 |
| Moneyline | Mercury | -176 |
| Total | Under 163.5 | -102 |
According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Mercury to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Sun vs. Mercury player props
Looking for Connecticut vs. Phoenix WNBA player props? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Mortgage Matchup Center.
Leila Lacan is expected to lead the Sun with 13 points, 2 rebounds and 5 assists, while Kahleah Copper is projected to have 21 points, 4 rebounds and 2 assists for the Mercury.
When evaluating the first basket market, Kahleah Copper is our top projected player to score first, backed by a 16% probability.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.
Sun prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Sun are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leila Lacan | 13 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 30 |
| Brittney Griner | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 28 |
| Diamond Miller | 11 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 21 |
| O. Nelson-Ododa | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 23 |
| Kennedy Burke | 9 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 20 |
Mercury prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Mercury:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kahleah Copper | 21 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 32 |
| Alyssa Thomas | 16 | 8 | 9 | 0 | 45 |
| DeWanna Bonner | 10 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 24 |
| Valeriane Ayayi | 10 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 21 |
| Alexa Held | 8 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 16 |
Sun vs. Mercury game-day updates and essential details
Friday's game between the Mercury and Sun at Mortgage Matchup Center is scheduled to start at 10:00 PM ET.
- Who: Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury
- Date: Friday, July 17, 2026
- Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
- Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center
Conclusion
We predict the Mercury, with a 68.4% win probability, will likely beat the Sun in Friday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Mac Douglass specializes in NFL previews for the NFC South and NFC East, MLB best bets, Formula 1 race previews, and professional tennis insights. Combining predictive simulations and data-driven sports analysis, Mac provides in-depth content to elevate the betting experience for sports fans.
