WNBA first basket picks and predictions for Friday, July 17, 2026
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of WNBA slate on 7/17.
Our WNBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Friday, July 17, 2026—are live with the Mercury's Kahleah Copper projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections draw on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily WNBA player projections.
Copper, Brittney Griner and Marina Mabrey lead Friday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
WNBA first basket predictions tonight (July 17, 2026)
| Player (Team) | FB Probability |
|---|---|
| Kahleah Copper (Mercury) | 16.0% |
| Brittney Griner (Sun) | 15.4% |
| Marina Mabrey (Tempo) | 15.3% |
| Kamilla Cardoso (Sky) | 14.5% |
| Dominique Malonga (Storm) | 13.6% |
| Sydney Taylor (Sky) | 13.5% |
| Kelsey Mitchell (Fever) | 13.1% |
| Nneka Ogwumike (Sparks) | 12.9% |
| Isabelle Harrison (Tempo) | 12.8% |
| Natisha Hiedeman (Storm) | 12.4% |
| Allisha Gray (Dream) | 12.4% |
| Caitlin Clark (Fever) | 12.0% |
| Angel Reese (Dream) | 11.8% |
| Alyssa Thomas (Mercury) | 11.5% |
| Dearica Hamby (Sparks) | 11.2% |
| Rae Burrell (Sparks) | 11.0% |
| Leila Lacan (Sun) | 10.9% |
| Aliyah Boston (Fever) | 10.9% |
| Rhyne Howard (Dream) | 10.7% |
| Laura Juskaite (Tempo) | 9.7% |
| Flau'jae Johnson (Storm) | 9.6% |
| Azura Stevens (Sky) | 8.7% |
| Awa Fam (Storm) | 8.2% |
| DeWanna Bonner (Mercury) | 8.1% |
| Valeriane Ayayi (Mercury) | 8.0% |
| Jordin Canada (Dream) | 8.0% |
| Kennedy Burke (Sun) | 8.0% |
| Diamond Miller (Sun) | 7.9% |
| Charlisse Leger-Walker (Sun) | 7.8% |
| Gabriela Jaquez (Sky) | 7.6% |
| Erica Wheeler (Sparks) | 7.4% |
| Ariel Atkins (Sparks) | 7.4% |
| Naz Hillmon (Dream) | 7.1% |
| Lexie Hull (Fever) | 7.0% |
| Sophie Cunningham (Fever) | 6.9% |
| Maria Conde (Tempo) | 6.6% |
| Noemie Brochant (Mercury) | 6.4% |
| Jade Melbourne (Storm) | 6.1% |
| Natasha Cloud (Sky) | 5.8% |
| Julie Allemand (Tempo) | 5.6% |
WNBA first basket picks today (July 17, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natisha Hiedeman | Storm | 3.2% | +980 | 12.4% |
| Kahleah Copper | Mercury | 2.7% | +650 | 16.0% |
| Sydney Taylor | Sky | 2.6% | +820 | 13.5% |
| Rae Burrell | Sparks | 1.9% | +990 | 11.0% |
| Laura Juskaite | Tempo | 1.4% | +1100 | 9.7% |
| Lexie Hull | Fever | 1.1% | +1600 | 7.0% |
| Charlisse Leger-Walker | Sun | 1.0% | +1360 | 7.8% |
| DeWanna Bonner | Mercury | 1.0% | +1300 | 8.1% |
| Caitlin Clark | Fever | 0.9% | +800 | 12.0% |
| Erica Wheeler | Sparks | 0.7% | +1380 | 7.4% |
| Ariel Atkins | Sparks | 0.4% | +1340 | 7.4% |
| Isabelle Harrison | Tempo | 0.3% | +700 | 12.8% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 7/17.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Friday, July 17, 2026, Kahleah Copper, Brittney Griner and Marina Mabrey lead our first basket projections, while Natisha Hiedeman shapes as the strongest value play at +980. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ WNBA first basket model.
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Damien Souness is Chief Experience Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, helping lead sports media brands such as Dimers. He specializes in creating trustworthy and data-driven content for sports fans, with experience working for globally recognized sports and media organizations.
