Sun vs. Fever prediction: Caitlin Clark projected to score 18 points in Wednesday's WNBA matchup [7/22/2026]
Get Connecticut Sun vs Indiana Fever predictions for WNBA Wednesday.
The Indiana Fever and Connecticut Sun are scheduled to meet in the WNBA at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on Wednesday, starting at 8:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced WNBA model projects the Fever as the most likely winner of the Sun vs. Fever game.
The Fever, who have star players like Kelsey Mitchell, Caitlin Clark and Aliyah Boston, will face off against the Sun, who feature Brittney Griner, Leila Lacan and Olivia Nelson-Ododa.
Clark, the Fever's No. 1 pick in the 2024 WNBA draft, is expected to shine with a projected 18 points and 2 threes.
This article offers a closer look at Wednesday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Sun vs. Fever prediction: Who will win and cover?
Our leading predictive model gives the Fever a 79.3% chance of beating the Sun.
According to our model, the Sun (+9.5) have a 55.7% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 177.5 points has a 60.1% chance of staying under,.
Sun vs. Fever odds
We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Sun | Fever |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +9.5 (+104) | -9.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | +376 | -400 |
| Total | o177.5 (-111) | u177.5 (+104) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Sun vs. Fever picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Sun +9.5 | +104 |
| Moneyline | Sun | +376 |
| Total | Under 177.5 | +104 |
According to our best WNBA bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 177.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Sun vs. Fever player props
Looking for Connecticut vs. Indiana WNBA prop bets? We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.
Brittney Griner is expected to lead the Sun with 14 points, 6 rebounds and 2 assists, while Kelsey Mitchell is projected to have 23 points, 2 rebounds and 3 assists for the Fever.
Looking at the opening tip, the numbers point to Brittney Griner striking first with a 14.9% probability.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.
Sun prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Sun are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brittney Griner | 14 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 29 |
| Leila Lacan | 13 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 29 |
| O. Nelson-Ododa | 11 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 26 |
| Diamond Miller | 9 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 18 |
| C. Leger-Walker | 7 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 22 |
Fever prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Fever:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelsey Mitchell | 23 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 34 |
| Caitlin Clark | 18 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 40 |
| Aliyah Boston | 16 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 37 |
| S. Cunningham | 9 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 18 |
| M. Billings | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 17 |
Sun vs. Fever game-day updates and essential details
Wednesday's action between the Fever and Sun at Gainbridge Fieldhouse is scheduled to start at 8:00 PM ET.
- Who: Connecticut Sun vs. Indiana Fever
- Date: Wednesday, July 22, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
- Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse
Conclusion
We predict the Fever, with a 79.3% win probability, will likely beat the Sun in Wednesday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
