Mercury vs. Sparks prediction: Los Angeles favored to win Wednesday's WNBA matchup [7/22/2026]
Get Phoenix Mercury vs Los Angeles Sparks predictions for WNBA Wednesday.
WNBA action continues on Wednesday at 3:00 PM ET as the Phoenix Mercury lock horns with the Los Angeles Sparks at Crypto.com Arena.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven WNBA model projects the Sparks as the most likely winner of the Mercury vs. Sparks game.
The Sparks, who have stars such as Nneka Ogwumike, Dearica Hamby and Rae Burrell, will face off against the Mercury, whose lineup includes Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Wednesday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Mercury vs. Sparks prediction: Who will win and cover?
Our famous predictive model gives the Sparks a 60.6% chance of beating the Mercury.
According to our model, the Sparks (-2.5) have a 53.4% chance of covering the spread, while the 178.5-point over/under has a 72.4% chance of staying under,.
Mercury vs. Sparks odds
We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Mercury | Sparks |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +2.5 (-110) | -2.5 (-105) |
| Moneyline | +118 | -122 |
| Total | o178.5 (+100) | u178.5 (-104) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Mercury vs. Sparks picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Sparks -2.5 | -105 |
| Moneyline | Sparks | -122 |
| Total | Under 178.5 | -104 |
According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 178.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Mercury vs. Sparks player props
WNBA prop bets are an enjoyable way to wager on the Phoenix vs. Los Angeles matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Crypto.com Arena.
Kahleah Copper is expected to lead the Mercury with 23 points, 4 rebounds and 2 assists, while Nneka Ogwumike is projected to have 16 points, 7 rebounds and 2 assists for the Sparks.
Shifting focus to the first basket market, our projections highlight Kahleah Copper as the most likely player to open the scoring.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.
Mercury prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Mercury are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kahleah Copper | 23 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 35 |
| Alyssa Thomas | 16 | 9 | 10 | 0 | 49 |
| DeWanna Bonner | 11 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 25 |
| Valeriane Ayayi | 9 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 21 |
| Alexa Held | 8 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 15 |
Sparks prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Sparks:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nneka Ogwumike | 16 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 32 |
| Dearica Hamby | 15 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 33 |
| Rae Burrell | 13 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 24 |
| Ariel Atkins | 13 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 29 |
| Erica Wheeler | 11 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 25 |
Mercury vs. Sparks game-day updates and essential details
Wednesday's matchup between the Sparks and Mercury at Crypto.com Arena is scheduled to start at 3:00 PM ET.
- Who: Phoenix Mercury vs. Los Angeles Sparks
- Date: Wednesday, July 22, 2026
- Time: 3:00 PM ET/12:00PM PT
- Venue: Crypto.com Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Sparks, with a 60.6% win probability, will likely beat the Mercury in Wednesday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
