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March Madness: The Bets You Should Be Making Before the Sweet 16

March Madness: The Bets You Should Be Making Before the Sweet 16

The opening weekend of the 2023 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament has come and gone and now just 16 teams remain. It was a weekend that brought excitement and shock, but did it bring us any closer to helping us figure out who might be walking away with the national championship on April 3? We’ve run our March Madness prediction models ahead of the Sweet 16 and uncovered the bets that you should be making (and not making) before this week’s games.

RELATED: College Basketball Best Bets for the Sweet 16

If you haven't already, sign up for WynnBet ➡️ here ⬅️, where you can get a $100 bet credits when you place your first bet of $100.

 

The Best March Madness Bets to Make Now

Houston Are the Team to Beat

The opening two rounds of the tourney were interesting for the Cougars. After a semi-convincing win over Northern Kentucky on Thursday, the NCAA title favorite found themselves facing a big deficit in their second round game against Auburn, trailing by 10 at halftime. Of course, they were able to rally and ended up putting together a dominant second half performance to win by 17 points, putting to bed any concerns of another No. 1 seed being bounced before the Sweet 16 after the eliminations of Kansas and Purdue. 

So, after an up-and-down weekend, should you be betting on Houston? The sportsbooks say yes, and so do we. Not only are the Cougars the current favorites to win it all at +500 with WynnBet, but our College Basketball model is indicating that those odds are actually too high. Our futures model gives Houston a 26.5% chance of winning the championship, equating to odds of +277. They’ll take on Miami next, and then the winner of Xavier and Texas if they manage to dispatch the Hurricanes.

 

Tennessee Have It Easy?

The Volunteers were one of the big winners of the shock upsets that impacted the East side of the bracket when Florida Atlantic overcame Memphis in the final moments of their round one matchup, while Purdue were dismantled by No. 16 seed Fairleigh Dickson. That leaves the No. 4 seed Tennessee with a dream matchup against FAU on Thursday, and makes them far and away our model’s best value bet.

Our futures model now assesses the SEC powerhouse as a 11.9% chance of winning the national championship, equating to odds of +740; in stark contrast to the +2500 odds available currently with WynnBet. Now, that’s a bet to make if ever we’ve seen one.

 

Not convinced of the Volunteers’ title credentials yet? There is still value to be had on Tennessee to at least make it to the Final Four with odds of +120. Our model says those odds should be closer to around -125 given their current draw.

 

Could the Bruins Do Something?

You know the great thing about value bets at big odds? We can take a lot of them for small stakes and if one hits, we’re up. After a strong showing through the opening two games of the tournament, our model has also identified UCLA as a team worth monitoring as they head to Las Vegas for a date with Gonzaga in the Sweet 16. Led by Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Amari Bailey, the Bruins were out-of-this-world good shooting the ball in their wins against Northwestern and UNC Asheville, hitting over 50% of their field goals in both games. 

Our model rates the No. 2 West seed as a 14.7% chance of going all the way, in contrast with the best odds available of +1200 with WynnBet. Coming up against Gonzaga on Thursday - a team our model absolutely hates at a predicted tournament win probability of just 2.5% - this is a bet that could have some interesting cash out value by this time next week.

 

Check back in with Dimers throughout March Madness, as we serve up daily best bets, player props and the best sportsbook offers

 
Jason Bevilacqua
Head of Content and Communities

Jason Bevilacqua grew up addicted to sports, and betting on them. Whether it's horse racing, football, basketball, baseball, or two flies on the wall  if there's at least two combatants going toe to toe, he will have some action on it. Jason has been with Dimers since its inception in 2020 as its Head of Social and Community, pinch hitting in the editorial department with daily written articles. He feels strongest betting on basketball and baseball, and whatever else DimersBOT tells him to.

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