Cavaliers vs. Thunder prediction: Cleveland to win, Donovan Mitchell projected for big game in Sunday's NBA matchup [2/22/2026]

NBA action continues on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET as the Cleveland Cavaliers square off with the Oklahoma City Thunder at Paycom Center.

Based on the latest simulations and today’s injury news, Dimers' advanced NBA model predicts the Cavaliers as the most likely winner of the Cavaliers vs. Thunder game.

This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Thunder lineup will feature stars like Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins, while the Cavaliers will look to Donovan Mitchell, James Harden and Jarrett Allen.

This article offers a closer look at Sunday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.

Cavs vs. Thunder prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Sunday's NBA game between the Cavaliers and Thunder 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives the Cavaliers a 63% chance of beating the Thunder. Our predicted final score has the Cavaliers winning 115-111.

According to our model, the Thunder (+4.5) have a 52% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 228.5 points has a 52% chance of staying under.

Cavaliers vs. Thunder odds

We have researched the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Cavaliers	Thunder
Spread	-4.5 (-102)	+4.5 (-112)
Moneyline	-178	+150
Total	o228.5 (-104)	u228.5 (-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Cavaliers vs. Thunder picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Thunder +4.5	-112
Moneyline	Cavaliers	-178
Total	Under 228.5	-110

According to our best NBA bets for Sunday, the top play to make on this game is Under 228.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Cavaliers vs. Thunder player props

NBA player props are an exciting way to wager on Sunday's Cleveland vs. Oklahoma City matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Paycom Center.

Donovan Mitchell is expected to lead the Cavaliers with 26 points, 5 rebounds and 6 assists, while Chet Holmgren is projected to have 18 points, 8 rebounds and 2 assists for the Thunder.

Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.

Cavaliers prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Cavaliers are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
D. Mitchell	26	5	6	3	47
James Harden	21	5	9	2	46
Jarrett Allen	14	9	2	0	32
Evan Mobley	12	7	3	1	30
Sam Merrill	10	3	2	2	21

Thunder prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Thunder:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Chet Holmgren	18	8	2	1	38
Isaiah Joe	14	3	2	3	25
Aaron Wiggins	13	4	2	2	26
Jared McCain	11	3	2	2	22
Cason Wallace	11	3	3	2	25

Cavs vs. Thunder game-day updates and essential details

Sunday's game between the Thunder and Cavaliers at Paycom Center is scheduled to start at 1:00 PM ET.

• Who: Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
• Date: Sunday, February 22, 2026
• Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
• Venue: Paycom Center

Conclusion

We predict the Cavaliers, with a 63% win probability, will likely beat the Thunder on Sunday, with Donovan Mitchell projected for a game-high 47 fantasy points.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Cavaliers vs. Thunder insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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