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Bengals vs. Dolphins prediction: Why Cincinnati is favored to win in NFL Week 16 [2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins predictions for NFL Sunday.
The Miami Dolphins and Cincinnati Bengals will lock horns in Week 16 of the NFL season at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday, starting at 1:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced NFL model predicts the Bengals as the most likely winner of the Bengals vs. Dolphins game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of this week's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Bengals vs. Dolphins prediction: Who will win and cover?
Since our Bengals-Dolphins predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the result of Sunday's NFL game between the Bengals and Dolphins 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Bengals a 63% chance of beating the Dolphins in Week 16 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Bengals winning 25-21.
According to our model, the Dolphins (+4.5) have a 54% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 48.5 points has a 53% chance of staying under.
To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 16 straight up picks.
Bengals vs. Dolphins odds
We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Bengals | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -4.5 (-102) | +4.5 (-112) |
| Moneyline | -210 | +185 |
| Total | o48.5 (-110) | u48.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Bengals vs. Dolphins picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Dolphins +4.5 | -112 |
| Moneyline | Dolphins | +185 |
| Total | Under 48.5 | -110 |
According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Dolphins to win.
Bengals vs. Dolphins TD scorers
Who will score a touchdown in Bengals vs. Dolphins?
According to our model, De'Von Achane is most likely to score an anytime TD in Bengals vs. Dolphins.
Our projections give Achane a 56.5% chance of scoring a TD at Hard Rock Stadium, while the running back is a 13.3% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions
Cincinnati Bengals
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase (WR) | 48.7% |
| Chase Brown (RB) | 41.4% |
| Tee Higgins (WR) | 41.1% |
| Samaje Perine (RB) | 25.6% |
| Mike Gesicki (TE) | 21.2% |
Miami Dolphins
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| De'Von Achane (RB) | 56.5% |
| Jaylen Waddle (WR) | 31.3% |
| Darren Waller (TE) | 28.6% |
| Malik Washington (WR) | 19.1% |
| Ollie Gordon (RB) | 16.1% |
First touchdown scorer predictions
Cincinnati Bengals
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase (WR) | 11.5% |
| Chase Brown (RB) | 9.3% |
| Tee Higgins (WR) | 9.2% |
| Samaje Perine (RB) | 5.1% |
| Mike Gesicki (TE) | 4.1% |
Miami Dolphins
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| De'Von Achane (RB) | 13.3% |
| Jaylen Waddle (WR) | 6.0% |
| Darren Waller (TE) | 5.4% |
| Malik Washington (WR) | 3.4% |
| Ollie Gordon (RB) | 2.8% |
Bengals vs Dolphins player props
Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Bengals and Dolphins. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 16 games.
Quarterbacks
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Bengals' Joe Burrow is projected to have a big game with 267 passing yards. The Dolphins' Quinn Ewers is expected to throw for just 189 yards.
| Player | Proj. Pass Yards |
|---|---|
| Joe Burrow (CIN) | 267 |
| Quinn Ewers (MIA) | 189 |
Bengals rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Chase Brown | 53 |
| Samaje Perine | 39 |
| Joe Burrow | 8 |
Dolphins rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| De'Von Achane | 86 |
| Jaylen Wright | 20 |
| Ollie Gordon | 11 |
Bengals receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 92 |
| Tee Higgins | 62 |
| Mike Gesicki | 29 |
| Chase Brown | 25 |
| Andrei Iosivas | 23 |
Dolphins receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Jaylen Waddle | 58 |
| Darren Waller | 34 |
| De'Von Achane | 31 |
| Malik Washington | 23 |
| Greg Dulcich | 19 |
Bengals vs. Dolphins game-day updates and essential details
The NFL Week 16 matchup between the Dolphins and Bengals at Hard Rock Stadium is scheduled to begin at 1:00 PM ET.
- Who: Cincinnati Bengals vs. Miami Dolphins
- Date: Sunday, December 21, 2025
- Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
- Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
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Conclusion
We predict the Bengals, with a 63% win probability, will likely beat the Dolphins in Week 16 of the NFL season.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Bengals vs. Dolphins insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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