Blackhawks vs. Lightning prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Thursday's NHL matchup [10/23/2025]

The Tampa Bay Lightning will square off with the Chicago Blackhawks in NHL action at Benchmark International Arena on Thursday, beginning at 6:45PM ET.

Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced NHL model predicts the Lightning as the most likely winner of the Blackhawks vs. Lightning game.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's matchup, including goal scorer projections, best bets and player prop picks.

Hawks vs. Lightning prediction: Who will win, cover the puck line?

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's NHL game between the Blackhawks and Lightning 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives the Lightning a 70% chance of beating the Blackhawks.

According to our model, the Blackhawks (+1.5) have a 52% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of 6 goals has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.

Blackhawks vs. Lightning odds

We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Blackhawks	Lightning
Puck Line	+1.5 (+105)	-1.5 (-122)
Moneyline	+260	-300
Total	o6 (-115)	u6 (-105)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Blackhawks vs. Lightning picks and best bet

Our predictions, matched with the best odds, reveal the top betting picks for this game, detailed in our NHL best bets, crafted from expert modeling and analysis:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Puck Line	Blackhawks +1.5	+105
Moneyline	Blackhawks	+260
Total	Under 6	-105

According to our best NHL bets, the top play to make on this game is Blackhawks +1.5 at the spread.

Blackhawks vs. Lightning player props

Who will score a goal in Blackhawks vs. Lightning?

According to our model, Brayden Point is most likely to score an anytime goal in Blackhawks vs. Lightning.

Our projections give Point a 45.4% chance of scoring a goal at Benchmark International Arena, while the star is a 9.3% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Chicago Blackhawks

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Connor Bedard	30.0%
Ilya Mikheyev	27.2%
Frank Nazar	26.4%
Ryan Donato	23.4%
Tyler Bertuzzi	21.1%

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Brayden Point	45.4%
Jake Guentzel	44.9%
Nikita Kucherov	39.2%
Brandon Hagel	32.1%
Anthony Cirelli	29.5%

First goal scorer predictions

Chicago Blackhawks

Player	First Goal Probability
Ilya Mikheyev	5.3%
Connor Bedard	5.1%
Frank Nazar	5.0%
Ryan Donato	4.3%
Tyler Bertuzzi	4.0%

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	First Goal Probability
Jake Guentzel	9.5%
Brayden Point	9.3%
Nikita Kucherov	8.1%
Brandon Hagel	6.3%
Anthony Cirelli	5.3%

Hawks vs. Lightning game-day updates and essential details

Thursday's matchup between the Lightning and Blackhawks at Benchmark International Arena is scheduled to begin at 6:45PM ET.

• Who: Chicago Blackhawks vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
• Date: Thursday, October 23, 2025
• Time: 6:45PM ET/3:45PM PT
• Venue: Benchmark International Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Lightning, with a 70% win probability, will likely beat the Blackhawks on Thursday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Blackhawks vs. Lightning insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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