CBB Trade of the Day: Dimers data finds edge in college basketball tournament on OG prediction market

The college basketball tournament is here and the Dimers data is ready to help you maximize your profit in every round this March. Alongside our new prediction market partner OG, our model has flagged a potential edge in the college basketball tournament, specifically in the market for teams to reach the Round of 8.

Here’s what the data shows and how you can trade the outcome on OG, the federally regulated prediction market platform powered by Crypto.com.

The Edge at a Glance

Illinois projects with over a 50% probability of reaching the Round of 8 based on updated probabilities after their first-round win and upcoming matchup with VCU, but the public is pricing them as more of a bubble team.

What the Data Says

The Dimers model gives Illinois a 52.1% probability of advancing to the Round of 8 in the Men's NCAA Tournament, an opportunity we highlighted in our pre-tournament look at the futures.

Meanwhile, the current OG market is pricing Illinois at approximately 44%, presenting an 8-percentage-point gap that points to the public undervaluing the 3-seed from the South region of the bracket relative to what the model projects.

They rolled through their first-round matchup with Penn and draw a VCU team that struggled before completing a 19-point comeback in their opening round matchup, with a win over VCU putting Illinois one game away from reaching the round of 8.

In prediction market terms: if you believe the Dimers model is closer to the true probability than the current market price, that gap is where potential value may exist.

You can trade a contract on Illinois to reach the Round of 8 directly on OG for a better price than our model implies.

Example Trade Breakdown

Here’s how an Illinois to reach the Round of 8 contract might look on OG:

⚠️  Fees may apply. OG may charge trading fees that affect your net payout. Always check the full contract details on OG before placing a trade. Your potential profit, maximum loss, and settlement rules are stated upfront on every order. 

How to Trade This on OG

If you’re already signed up, here’s the straightforward workflow:

• Open OG and search for the college basketball tournament futures markets

• Select Illinois to reach the Round of 8

• Review the contract price, potential payout, and maximum loss — all displayed upfront.

• Enter your trade amount and confirm. You can also close your position early at the prevailing market price before the game settles.

• If Illinois reaches the Round of 8 and your trade settles in the money, your payout is credited to your account.

Not yet on OG? Sign up via our link → dime.rs/og  

We may earn a commission when you sign up through our link.

Learn more about OG's tournament bonus offer.

Why This Approach

You’re not following a tip. You’re comparing two independent data points - a quantitative model output and a live market price - and deciding whether the gap is significant enough to act on. That’s what informed trading looks like.

OG is not a sportsbook. It’s a federally regulated financial exchange operated by Crypto.com | Derivatives North America (CDNA), a CFTC-regulated exchange. You trade against the market, not a house. There is no user limiting; winning is encouraged.

What is OG?

OG is a prediction market platform powered by Crypto.com and operated by Crypto.com | Derivatives North America (CDNA) - a CFTC-regulated exchange. That means it operates under the same federal regulatory framework that governs futures markets, not under state-by-state sportsbook licensing.

Instead of betting against a house, you buy and sell event contracts. Each contract’s price directly reflects the market’s implied probability that an event will occur, so everything is expressed as a percentage, not traditional odds. No conversion, no mental math.

A few things that make OG different:

• No user limiting: sharp traders and high-volume users won’t be restricted or banned for winning. You trade against the market.

• Transparent pricing: your potential profit, maximum loss, and settlement rules are stated upfront on every trade.

• Wide market coverage: sports, politics, economics, entertainment, and more. Includes moneyline, spread, total, player props, and parlays.

• Available to eligible users across most of the United States: see og.com for state-by-state details.

Availability by State

OG is available to eligible users across most of the United States.

New York and Arizona residents cannot trade on any markets. Nevada, Ohio, Michigan, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Illinois residents cannot trade on sports contracts but may trade other categories.

Visit og.com for the full list of eligible states.

RISK DISCLOSURE

Trading involves risk of loss. Identifying a probability edge does not guarantee a winning trade — the event outcome is always uncertain and you may lose the full amount of your contract. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or trading advice. Predictions are event contracts that are derivatives products offered by Crypto.com | Derivatives North America (CDNA), a CFTC-regulated exchange through OG technology. Terms apply. Visit og.com for full details.