Flames vs. Maple Leafs prediction: Why Toronto is favored to win Tuesday's NHL matchup [10/28/2025]

The Toronto Maple Leafs and Calgary Flames are scheduled to meet in the NHL at Scotiabank Arena on Tuesday, with puck drop at 6:00PM ET.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced NHL model projects the Maple Leafs as the most likely winner of the Flames vs. Maple Leafs game.

This article offers further insights into Tuesday's matchup, including goal scorer projections, best bets and player prop picks.

Flames vs. Maple Leafs prediction: Who will win, cover the puck line?

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Tuesday's NHL game between the Flames and Maple Leafs 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Maple Leafs a 59% chance of defeating the Flames.

According to our model, the Flames (+1.5) have a 63% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of 5.5 goals has a 54% chance of going over.

Flames vs. Maple Leafs odds

We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Flames	Maple Leafs
Puck Line	+1.5 (-175)	-1.5 (+154)
Moneyline	+142	-160
Total	o5.5 (-130)	u5.5 (+112)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Flames vs. Maple Leafs picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Puck Line	Flames +1.5	-175
Moneyline	Flames	+142
Total	Under 5.5	+112

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Flames to win.

Flames vs. Maple Leafs player props

Who will score a goal in Flames vs. Maple Leafs?

According to our model, Auston Matthews is most likely to score an anytime goal in Flames vs. Maple Leafs.

Our projections give Matthews a 50.9% chance of scoring a goal at Scotiabank Arena, while the star is an 11.2% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Calgary Flames

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Nazem Kadri	30.0%
Jonathan Huberdeau	24.7%
Yegor Sharangovich	23.1%
Matthew Coronato	22.5%
Blake Coleman	21.7%

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Auston Matthews	50.9%
John Tavares	36.4%
Matthew Knies	33.6%
Bobby McMann	23.2%
Matias Maccelli	20.9%

First goal scorer predictions

Calgary Flames

Player	First Goal Probability
Nazem Kadri	5.9%
Jonathan Huberdeau	5.0%
Yegor Sharangovich	4.4%
Matthew Coronato	4.0%
Blake Coleman	3.8%

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player	First Goal Probability
Auston Matthews	11.2%
John Tavares	7.5%
Matthew Knies	6.6%
Bobby McMann	4.5%
Matias Maccelli	3.5%

Flames vs. Maple Leafs game-day updates and essential details

Tuesday's matchup between the Maple Leafs and Flames at Scotiabank Arena is scheduled to start at 6:00PM ET.

• Who: Calgary Flames vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
• Date: Tuesday, October 28, 2025
• Time: 6:00PM ET/3:00PM PT
• Venue: Scotiabank Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Maple Leafs, with a 59% win probability, will likely beat the Flames on Tuesday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Flames vs. Maple Leafs insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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