Bills vs. Dolphins prediction: Why Buffalo is favored to win in NFL Week 10, 2025

NFL Week 10 action continues on Sunday at 1:00PM ET as the Buffalo Bills take on the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced NFL model predicts the Bills as the most likely winner of the Bills vs. Dolphins game.

This article offers further insights into this week's matchup, including touchdown scorer projections, best bets and player prop picks.

Bills vs. Dolphins prediction: Who will win, cover the spread?

Since our Bills-Dolphins predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL matchup between the Bills and Dolphins 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives the Bills a 76% chance of defeating the Dolphins in Week 10 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Bills winning 28-20.

According to our model, the Dolphins (+8) have a 52% chance of covering the spread, while the 49.5-point over/under has a 53% chance of staying under.

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 10 straight up picks.

Bills vs. Dolphins odds

We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Bills	Dolphins
Spread	-8 (-110)	+8 (-110)
Moneyline	-440	+360
Total	o49.5 (-120)	u49.5 (-102)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Bills vs. Dolphins picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Dolphins +8	-110
Moneyline	Dolphins	+360
Total	Under 49.5	-102

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 49.5 total points.

Bills vs. Dolphins TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Bills vs. Dolphins?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for today, James Cook is most likely to score an anytime TD in Bills vs. Dolphins.

Our projections give Cook a 57.1% chance of scoring a TD at Hard Rock Stadium, while the running back is a 13.3% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Buffalo Bills

Player	Anytime TD Probability
James Cook (RB)	57.1%
Josh Allen (QB)	49.8%
Khalil Shakir (WR)	30.1%
Dalton Kincaid (TE)	29.8%
Keon Coleman (WR)	25.9%

Miami Dolphins

Player	Anytime TD Probability
De'Von Achane (RB)	53.5%
Jaylen Waddle (WR)	35.1%
Malik Washington (WR)	23.8%
Ollie Gordon (RB)	20.1%
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (WR)	16.3%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Buffalo Bills

Player	First TD Probability
James Cook (RB)	13.3%
Josh Allen (QB)	10.8%
Khalil Shakir (WR)	5.6%
Dalton Kincaid (TE)	5.5%
Keon Coleman (WR)	4.7%

Miami Dolphins

Player	First TD Probability
De'Von Achane (RB)	12.8%
Jaylen Waddle (WR)	7.2%
Malik Washington (WR)	4.5%
Ollie Gordon (RB)	3.8%
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (WR)	3.0%

Bills vs Dolphins player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Bills and Dolphins. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 10 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Bills' Josh Allen is projected for 240 passing yards. The Dolphins' Tua Tagovailoa is expected to throw for 220 yards.

Player	Proj. Pass Yards
Josh Allen (BUF)	240
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA)	220

Bills rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
James Cook	90
Josh Allen	31
Ty Johnson	14

Dolphins rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
De'Von Achane	64
Ollie Gordon	21
Malik Washington	8

Bills receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
Khalil Shakir	54
Dalton Kincaid	48
Keon Coleman	41
Dawson Knox	17
Curtis Samuel	16

Dolphins receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
Jaylen Waddle	71
Malik Washington	35
De'Von Achane	35
Greg Dulcich	25
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	24

Bills vs. Dolphins game-day updates and essential details

The NFL Week 10 game between the Dolphins and Bills at Hard Rock Stadium is scheduled to begin at 1:00PM ET.

• Who: Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins
• Date: Sunday, November 9, 2025
• Time: 1:00PM ET/10:00AM PT
• Venue: Hard Rock Stadium

NFL Week 10 betting promos and codes

Make the most of Dimers' Bills vs. Dolphins predictions by exploring the two exciting offers below.

DraftKings Sportsbook

Sign up for DraftKings Sportsbook! Bet $5, get $200 in bonus bets instantly plus over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket.

Bet365 Sportsbook

Join Bet365 Sportsbook! Bet $5, get $200 in bonus bets win or lose.

Sports betting deal available for Sunday

To make the most of Sunday's exciting day of sports, headlined by NFL Sunday action, check out details on the latest Bet365 bonus code "DIMERS" that grants you $200 in bonus bets from a $5 bet — win or lose. Don't miss out!

Conclusion

We predict the Bills, with a 76% win probability, will likely beat the Dolphins in Week 10 of the NFL season.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Bills vs. Dolphins insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Note: Clicking links to our partners may earn us a referral fee. Learn about how we review products and services.

More on NFL

Keep up with the latest NFL news and NFL parlay picks throughout the season. Plus, our Super Bowl odds provide the most accurate probabilities for the Super Bowl, AFC, NFC and each division.

Boost your NFL betting by exploring the latest NFL betting promos, sourced from top sportsbooks and DFS operators.