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Bills vs. Browns prediction: Why Buffalo is favored to win in NFL Week 16 [2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Buffalo Bills vs Cleveland Browns predictions for NFL Sunday.
The Cleveland Browns and Buffalo Bills are scheduled to meet in Week 16 of the NFL season at Huntington Bank Field on Sunday, with kickoff at 1:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven NFL model projects the Bills as the most likely winner of the Bills vs. Browns game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of this week's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Bills vs. Browns prediction: Who will win and cover?
Since our Bills-Browns predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL matchup between the Bills and Browns 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Bills an 85% chance of beating the Browns in Week 16 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Bills winning 25-15.
According to our model, the bookmakers have got it right, and the Bills and Browns each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 41.5 points also has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 16 straight up picks.
Bills vs. Browns odds
We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Bills | Browns |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -10.5 (-105) | +10.5 (-115) |
| Moneyline | -625 | +500 |
| Total | o41.5 (-105) | u41.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Bills vs. Browns picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Bills -10.5 | -105 |
| Moneyline | Bills | -625 |
| Total | Over 41.5 | -105 |
According to our best NFL bets, the top play to make on this game is Bills to win.
Bills vs. Browns TD scorers
Who will score a touchdown in Bills vs. Browns?
According to our model, James Cook is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Bills vs. Browns.
Our projections give Cook a 54.2% chance of scoring a TD at Huntington Bank Field, while the running back is a 13.5% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions
Buffalo Bills
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| James Cook (RB) | 54.2% |
| Josh Allen (QB) | 47.4% |
| Khalil Shakir (WR) | 27.2% |
| Dalton Kincaid (TE) | 24.9% |
| Dawson Knox (TE) | 19.5% |
Cleveland Browns
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Quinshon Judkins (RB) | 45.4% |
| Harold Fannin (TE) | 25.5% |
| Jerry Jeudy (WR) | 17.4% |
| Isaiah Bond (WR) | 14.6% |
| Trayveon Williams (RB) | 14.0% |
First touchdown scorer predictions
Buffalo Bills
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| James Cook (RB) | 13.5% |
| Josh Allen (QB) | 11.1% |
| Khalil Shakir (WR) | 5.5% |
| Dalton Kincaid (TE) | 5.0% |
| Dawson Knox (TE) | 3.8% |
Cleveland Browns
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Quinshon Judkins (RB) | 10.9% |
| Harold Fannin (TE) | 5.3% |
| Jerry Jeudy (WR) | 3.5% |
| Isaiah Bond (WR) | 2.9% |
| Trayveon Williams (RB) | 2.7% |
Bills vs Browns player props
Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Bills and Browns. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 16 games.
Quarterbacks
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Bills' Josh Allen is projected for 214 passing yards. The Browns' Shedeur Sanders is expected to throw for just 183 yards.
| Player | Proj. Pass Yards |
|---|---|
| Josh Allen (BUF) | 214 |
| Shedeur Sanders (CLE) | 183 |
Bills rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| James Cook | 93 |
| Josh Allen | 34 |
| Ty Johnson | 13 |
Browns rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Quinshon Judkins | 62 |
| Trayveon Williams | 18 |
| Shedeur Sanders | 15 |
Bills receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Khalil Shakir | 44 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 36 |
| Keon Coleman | 24 |
| Joshua Palmer | 23 |
| Dawson Knox | 22 |
Browns receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Harold Fannin | 53 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 35 |
| Isaiah Bond | 22 |
| Cedric Tillman | 20 |
| Quinshon Judkins | 16 |
Bills vs. Browns game-day updates and essential details
The NFL Week 16 matchup between the Browns and Bills at Huntington Bank Field is scheduled to begin at 1:00 PM ET.
- Who: Buffalo Bills vs. Cleveland Browns
- Date: Sunday, December 21, 2025
- Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
- Venue: Huntington Bank Field
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Conclusion
We predict the Bills, with an 85% win probability, will likely beat the Browns in Week 16 of the NFL season.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Bills vs. Browns insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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