Bruins vs. Lightning prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Sunday's NHL matchup [2/1/2026]

NHL action continues on Sunday at 6:30 PM ET as the Boston Bruins take on the Tampa Bay Lightning at Raymond James Stadium.

Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced NHL model projects the Lightning as the most likely winner of the Bruins vs. Lightning game.

This article offers a closer look at Sunday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Bruins vs. Lightning prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Sunday's NHL matchup between the Bruins and Lightning 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives the Lightning a 63% chance of beating the Bruins.

According to our model, the Bruins (+1.5) have a 57% chance of covering the puck line, while the 5.5-goal over/under has a 58% chance of going over.

Bruins vs. Lightning odds

We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Bruins	Lightning
Puck Line	+1.5 (-130)	-1.5 (+118)
Moneyline	+185	-220
Total	o5.5 (-128)	u5.5 (+114)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Bruins vs. Lightning picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Puck Line	Bruins +1.5	-130
Moneyline	Bruins	+185
Total	Over 5.5	-128

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 5.5 total goals.

Bruins vs. Lightning player props

Who will score a goal in Bruins vs. Lightning?

According to our model, David Pastrnak is most likely to score an anytime goal in Bruins vs. Lightning.

Our projections give Pastrnak a 44.2% chance of scoring a goal at Raymond James Stadium, while the star is a 9.0% chance of registering the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Boston Bruins

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
David Pastrnak	44.2%
Morgan Geekie	31.8%
Fraser Minten	23.1%
Viktor Arvidsson	22.2%
Marat Khusnutdinov	16.7%

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Nikita Kucherov	42.4%
Jake Guentzel	39.3%
Brandon Hagel	36.4%
Anthony Cirelli	25.2%
Darren Raddysh	22.4%

First goal scorer predictions

Boston Bruins

Player	First Goal Probability
David Pastrnak	9.0%
Morgan Geekie	6.4%
Fraser Minten	4.2%
Viktor Arvidsson	4.0%
Marat Khusnutdinov	2.9%

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	First Goal Probability
Nikita Kucherov	8.3%
Jake Guentzel	7.8%
Brandon Hagel	6.9%
Anthony Cirelli	4.8%
Darren Raddysh	4.3%

Bruins vs. Lightning game-day updates and essential details

Sunday's matchup between the Lightning and Bruins at Raymond James Stadium is scheduled to begin at 6:30 PM ET.

• Who: Boston Bruins vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
• Date: Sunday, February 1, 2026
• Time: 6:30 PM ET/3:30PM PT
• Venue: Raymond James Stadium

Conclusion

We predict the Lightning, with a 63% win probability, will likely beat the Bruins on Sunday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Bruins vs. Lightning insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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