Spain vs. Belgium prediction, odds, props, World Cup 2026 picks [Quarter-Final]

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Friday's World Cup 2026 matchup between Spain and Belgium, forming part of our World Cup 2026 predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model indicates a 60.5% chance of Spain winning, a 17.2% chance for Belgium, and a 22.3% chance of a draw.

Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 51.2% chance of going over, with a 51.0% chance of at least one team keeping a clean sheet. In the win to nil market, Spain holds a 35.3% probability to win without conceding, with Belgium at 9.1%.

For bettors looking to cover multiple possibilities, the most likely double chance result is Spain to win or draw at 82.8%.

Keep in mind that soccer markets are settled at the end of 90 minutes. Unlike NBA betting where overtime counts, extra time won't factor into these odds unless explicitly noted.

Belgium vs. Spain odds

We have researched the best World Cup 2026 odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Moneyline

Spain	Belgium	Draw
-153	+506	+308

Total Goals

Over 2.5	Under 2.5
-117	+115

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Spain vs. Belgium picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Belgium @ +506 via Novig
• Total Goals: Under 2.5 @ +115 via Novig
• Win to Nil: Spain @ +175 via ESPN BET
• Double Chance: Spain or Belgium @ -400 via FanDuel
• Both Teams To Score: No @ +106 via FanDuel

According to our World Cup 2026 best bets, the top play to make on this game is Belgium to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Spain vs. Belgium: Correct score and BTTS predictions

Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 1-0 Spain win being the most probable:

Final Score	Probability
Spain 1-0 Belgium	12.2%
Spain 2-0 Belgium	11.3%
Spain 1-1 Belgium	10.6%

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 49.0% chance of both sides finding the net and a 51.0% chance that at least one doesn’t.

Spain vs. Belgium player props: Anytime goal scorer predictions

Our World Cup 2026 player projections for Friday highlight the top candidates to score a goal in Spain-Belgium:

Spain

• Mikel Oyarzabal: 34.2% probability
• Lamine Yamal: 28.2% probability
• Dani Olmo: 18.7% probability
• Alex Baena: 18.1% probability
• Rodri : 9.6% probability

Belgium

• Charles De Ketelaere: 14.3% probability
• Kevin De Bruyne: 11.5% probability
• Leandro Trossard: 11.4% probability
• Jeremy Doku: 9.9% probability
• Hans Vanaken: 8.0% probability

Spain vs. Belgium game-day updates and essential details

Friday's FIFA World Cup matchup between Spain and Belgium at SoFi Stadium is scheduled to start at 3:00 PM ET.

• Who: Spain vs. Belgium
• Date: Friday, July 10, 2026
• Time: 3:00 PM ET/12:00PM PT
• Venue: SoFi Stadium

All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.

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Conclusion

According to our computer model, Spain has a 60.5% win probability on Friday, Belgium has a 17.2% win probability, and there is a 22.3% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.