As Spain face Belgium in the World Cup semifinal, Polymarket and Kalshi promo code "DIMERS" extends $50 + $10 bonuses into the match

Spain and Belgium meet in the 2026 World Cup semifinal on Friday July 10 at 3:00 PM EDT at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles (FOX), and both Polymarket and Kalshi are pricing Spain as solid but not insurmountable favorites. On Polymarket, Spain hold a 61% regulation time win probability with a draw at 25% and Belgium at 17%, with the team-to-advance market going further to Spain 75¢ and Belgium 26¢. On Kalshi, Spain advances at 73% and Belgium at 27%. Belgium's tournament run has been built on genuine quality rather than fortune — and the 27% advance probability reflects a real, not token, chance of pulling off the semifinal upset. Traders on both platforms can access sign-up bonuses using promo code DIMERS: deposit $20 on Polymarket and receive $50 in trading funds, or trade $10 on Kalshi and receive a $10 bonus.

Live Polymarket Odds: Spain vs Belgium

The embed below shows live, real-time Polymarket odds for the Spain vs Belgium semifinal. Prices update continuously as the market develops ahead of Friday's kickoff.

The Odds: What Polymarket and Kalshi Are Saying

Both platforms are closely aligned on the headline numbers, with the 12-point gap between Polymarket's regulation time win (61% Spain) and the team-to-advance market (75% Spain) reflecting the extra time and penalty shootout dimension — a bracket stage where Spain have historically been clinical. The draw at 25% is the most significant number for Belgium traders: it represents the most plausible path to a Belgian advance, through a tight regulation match that goes the distance.

Figures current as of July 8, 2026. Match kicks off Friday July 10 at 3:00 PM EDT at SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles. See embed above for updated live Polymarket odds.

Where the Interesting Positions Are

The prop suite across both Polymarket and Kalshi is building a picture of a competitive but ultimately Spanish-controlled match — with enough Belgian threat to make the props genuinely interesting:

• Spain -1.5 spread at 35% on Kalshi: Despite Spain being 73% to advance overall, a comfortable multi-goal Spanish margin is priced as a one-in-three outcome. That number reflects Belgium's defensive organization and their ability to stay competitive in high-stakes matches throughout this tournament. Traders who believe Spain win comfortably have a clearly defined position at 35¢ if their conviction exceeds that probability.
• Belgium over 0.5 goals at 60% on Kalshi: This is the clearest expression of Belgium's threat. Even as underdogs at 27% to advance, traders believe Belgium score in this match three times out of five. A Spanish clean sheet is priced as the minority scenario, not the expected one — and combined with the 25% draw probability on Polymarket, Belgium's capacity to stay in contention through 90 minutes is being priced seriously.
• Over 2.5 goals at 53%: A marginal lean toward a higher-scoring match, which is somewhat unusual for a semifinal. Both Spain over 1.5 and Belgium over 0.5 sitting at 60% simultaneously imply a match where both teams find the net — making a 2-1 Spanish regulation win the single most internally consistent scoreline across all of these numbers.
• Draw at 25% on Polymarket: The second-highest draw probability of Spain's tournament so far. Belgium's run to this stage has been built on the ability to stay level with stronger opponents and force decisive moments late or in extra time — and traders are respecting that pattern heading into this semifinal.

For broader World Cup coverage and how the full bracket markets are developing on both platforms as the semifinals unfold, the Dimers prediction market insights hub is updated after every match. For a primer on how prediction markets process knockout round football, the Dimers guide covers the mechanics in detail.

Promo Code DIMERS: Active on Polymarket and Kalshi

Enter DIMERS at registration on either platform. The code cannot be applied to an existing account. The Polymarket promo code DIMERS has been verified through July 2026 and unlocks $50 in trading funds when you sign up and deposit $20. Full details on the Polymarket offer are available on the Dimers Polymarket promo code page. To trade Spain vs Belgium on Kalshi with promo code DIMERS, sign up here.

Ready to trade the match? Create your Polymarket account here and use code DIMERS to claim your welcome offer.

Polymarket is a prediction market platform, not a sportsbook. Users trade positions on event outcomes using real funds. Must be 18+ and eligible under applicable law. Trading involves risk. Bonus subject to Polymarket's current terms and conditions. Offer valid for new accounts only.

Kalshi: Must be 18 years or older and have a legal, U.S. residential address within the applicable state, D.C., or U.S. territories. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NJ, and OH.