After beating Egypt, Argentina face Switzerland in the World Cup Quarterfinal—live Polymarket and Kalshi odds

Argentina defeated Egypt to advance to the 2026 World Cup quarterfinals, and they now face Switzerland on Saturday July 11 at 9:00 PM EDT at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City (FOX). Both Polymarket and Kalshi are pricing Argentina as clear but not unassailable favorites. On Polymarket, Argentina hold a 57% regulation time win probability, with a draw at 28% and Switzerland at 17%, while the team-to-advance market shows Argentina at 74¢ and Switzerland at 27¢. On Kalshi, Argentina are priced at 72% to advance against Switzerland's 28% — both platforms arriving at near-identical overall numbers, with the prop markets on Kalshi building a nuanced picture underneath. Traders on both platforms can access sign-up bonuses using promo code DIMERS: deposit $20 on Polymarket and receive $50 in trading funds, or trade $10 on Kalshi and receive a $10 bonus.

Live Polymarket Odds: Argentina vs Switzerland

The embed below shows live, real-time Polymarket odds for the Argentina vs Switzerland quarterfinal. Prices update continuously as the market develops ahead of Saturday's kickoff.

The Odds: Polymarket and Kalshi in Near-Perfect Alignment

When Polymarket and Kalshi independently arrive at the same advance probability — as they have here, with both platforms pricing Argentina in the 72-74% range — it signals genuine market consensus rather than noise. The prop markets on Kalshi build a specific picture of how traders expect this quarterfinal to unfold.

Figures current as of July 9, 2026. Match kicks off Saturday July 11 at 9:00 PM EDT at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City. See embed above for updated live Polymarket odds.

Where the Interesting Positions Are

The draw at 28% on both Polymarket and Kalshi is the central number in this quarterfinal market. Switzerland's route to this stage was built on defensive resilience and the ability to absorb pressure from higher-ranked opponents — exactly the tactical profile suited to forcing extra time. Traders have seen Switzerland do it before at this tournament, and the 28% draw probability reflects genuine respect for their capacity to grind the match to a stalemate.

• Argentina -1.5 spread at 30% on Kalshi: Despite Argentina being 72% to advance overall, a comfortable multi-goal margin is a roughly one-in-three outcome. The gap between 72% overall and 30% spread coverage is one of the widest of any quarterfinal market — and it speaks directly to Switzerland's ability to stay in close matches even when outclassed in possession and chance creation.
• Switzerland over 0.5 goals at 56%: Traders believe Switzerland score in this quarterfinal more often than not — a number sitting above 50% despite Argentina being heavy favorites. An Argentine clean sheet is priced as a minority outcome, which combined with the 28% draw probability makes a 1-1 heading to extra time one of the more plausible single results in the market.
• Over 2.5 goals at 43%: The under is favored, pointing toward a tight, lower-scoring match as the consensus expectation. Combined with Argentina over 1.5 at exactly 50%, traders see a two-goal Argentine winning margin as nearly as likely as a one-goal margin — and a high-scoring affair as the least likely category overall.
• Argentina's quarterfinal position: Having dispatched Egypt, Argentina now face a Swiss side whose tournament run has been characterized by shootout excellence and defensive organization. The prediction markets are treating this as a genuine contest rather than a formality — and the 28% draw probability makes that explicit. Argentina's path to the semifinal is clear, but it runs through a match the market sees as genuinely open for 90 minutes.

For broader World Cup quarterfinal coverage and how the full bracket is developing on both platforms, the Dimers prediction market insights hub is updated after every match. For a primer on how prediction markets process knockout round football, the Dimers guide covers the mechanics in detail.

Promo Code DIMERS: Active on Polymarket and Kalshi

Enter DIMERS at registration on either platform. The code cannot be applied to an existing account. The Polymarket promo code DIMERS has been verified through July 2026 and unlocks $50 in trading funds when you sign up and deposit $20. Full details on the Polymarket offer are available on the Dimers Polymarket promo code page. To trade Argentina vs Switzerland on Kalshi with promo code DIMERS, sign up here.

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